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Baseball season is underway and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.
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As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Thursday, August 13th presents a smaller slate of just six games for us to choose from. One game we can try to take advantage of includes the Brewers at the Cubs.
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Brewers @ Cubs: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Yu Darvish more than 6.5 strikeouts and Brett Anderson more than 2.5 strikeouts
Yu Darvish has gotten off to a solid start as he has posted a 2.12 ERA with 16 K in his first 17 IP. Tonight, he gets a solid matchup against the Brewers where he could certainly go over the 6.5 threshold as he did vs. Pittsburgh on July 31. The Brewers have struggled mightily vs. right-handers this season as they have posted a 28.3% K rate, which ranks second-worst in the league. They also have not gotten pitchers in trouble as they currently are posting just an 8.1% BB rate vs. righties, which ranks them 20th in the league. Look for Darvish to go over tonight.
While Brett Anderson is not much of a strikeout pitcher, I do like him to go over the 2.5 mark tonight. In his first two starts this season, he managed to strike out two in each contest vs. the White Sox and Reds. Both of these teams are better in terms of K rate vs. left-handed pitching than the Cubs. The Cubs currently rank sixth-worst in the league with a K rate of 25.4%. If he is stretched out and able to go four-to-five innings, he should certainly be able to achieve three strikeouts vs. this offense.
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More or Less Contest - Javier Baez more than 1.5 total bases and Eric Sogard less than 1.5 hits/walks
Javier Baez more than 1.5 total bases - While Baez has not started the season red hot, he is still smashing left-handed pitching. In 2020, Baez has posted a .500 wOBA with three doubles off lefties. He has also posted a .960 OPS vs lefties since 2018 and should be a good bet to go over the total vs. Brett Anderson tonight.
Eric Sogard more than 1.5 hits/walks - Sogard has started the season ice cold as have much of the Brewers. In 2020, Sogard has a slash line of just .209/.370/.256. While the hits have not been there as much, the walks have as he currently has 10 walks on the season. He has also posted over this total in six of his first 15 games. Sogard also has decent numbers off Darvish as he has gone 5/18 with a .458 OBP. Add in the fact that the Cubs bullpen has been horrendous, ranking fourth-worst in the league with a 6.56 ERA, and I l like his odds to go over.
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