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Hello everybody and welcome! We have finally reached Opening Weekend for the 2021 MLB season and that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle-room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For MLB, Single Stat consists of pitcher strikeout props in which you determine if the pitcher in question will go over or under their projected strikeout total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. For today's article, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Single Stat pitchers and explain why a pitcher will or will not go over their projected strikeout total. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Single Stat Strikeout Totals
John Means Over 3.5 strikeouts. Means was given plenty of run this spring as the Orioles allowed him to throw 19 innings. While he only managed to strike out 14 batters across those nine innings, he will be facing a Red Sox lineup that struggled a bit vs. left-handed pitchers in 2020. The Sox posted a K rate of 25.4%, which ranked them seventh-worst in the league. They also only posted a walk rate of 7.4%, which ranked them 24th overall in MLB, so Means may not find himself in trouble early. With these stats behind the Red Sox and Means only needing to hit four strikeouts, the over appears to be the best play here.
Nathan Eovaldi Under 5.5 strikeouts. Eovaldi has not looked sharp this spring as he has allowed nine earned runs across his 13 2/3 innings pitched. He has also failed to strike out more than five in any of those spring appearances. While the spring stats may not be significant, it should be noted that he also will be facing an Orioles lineup that only posted a K rate of 22.8% vs. right-handed pitching in 2020. They also posted a 105 wRC+, which could get Eovaldi into trouble early.
Ryan Yarbrough Over 4.5 strikeouts. Yarbrough is nice and warm after throwing 5 1/3 innings in his most recent spring start. While he is not typically a high strikeout pitcher, he should be able to get to five against this Marlins squad that struck out at a clip of 25.1% vs. right-handed pitching in 2020, which ranked 10th-worst in the league. The Marlins also posted just an 89 wRC+, which ranked them seventh-worst in the league in 2020. Yarbrough should be able to cruise in this one and get to five strikeouts before he is pulled sometime after the fifth inning.
Pablo Lopez Under 5.5 strikeouts. Pablo is a bit of a tough nut to crack today, so I would recommend using him in a flex play. He has the stuff to strike out six Rays as they posted a K rate near the top of the league vs. righties in 2020 with a rate of 26.3%, but he has yet to pitch past the fifth inning in spring camp. He has also failed to strike out more than three batters in any of his spring starts. The Rays also posted a solid 105 wRC+ vs. right-handers in 2020 and also only have a combined 16% K rate vs. Lopez, albeit in very limited action.
Jesus Luzardo Under 5.5 strikeouts. Luzardo draws a tough matchup in this one as the Astros posted the second-best K rate vs. left-handed pitching in 2020 with a rate of just 19.7%. Luzardo also only threw 10 2/3 innings this spring and never made it to the five innings pitched threshold in any game. This makes me think the A's could go a bit lighter on him in the early going and be a likely candidate to get the early yank. In 2020, he only managed to go over 5.5 strikeouts four times, and none of them came until the middle of August after he had several innings under his belt.
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