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A couple of early games we can look at today include the Mariners at Orioles and Marlins at Braves.
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Mariners @ Orioles
More or Less Contest
Marco Gonzales less than 4.5 strikeouts and Matt Harvey more than 2.5 strikeouts
This will be a seven-inning game in Baltimore and Marco will be on the bump for the Mariners. He has 8 strikeouts through his first 10 1/3 innings pitched this season, and while he will be facing an Orioles team that has a K rate of 30% against lefties, they are also posting a wRC+ mark of 120, which is ranked ninth-best in baseball. He could certainly get himself into trouble in this one, and given the seven-inning length, he could be pulled sooner and that is why I lean on the less than here.
Matt Harvey has struck out nine across his first 9 2/3 innings pitched in 2021. He will be going up against a Mariners team that is striking out at a rate of 26.9% vs. right-handed pitchers. This ranks them seventh-worst in baseball and is the main reason he should be able to get three strikeouts in this game. They are also only posting a 7.5% walk rate vs. righties, so Harvey may be less likely to get into trouble here as well.
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Marlins @ Braves
More or Less Contest
Trevor Rogers more than 5.5 strikeouts and Ian Anderson more than 5.5 strikeouts
Trevor Rogers looked electric in his last start as he struck out 10 Mets while only allowing three hits. He will be going up against a Braves team that is posting a 29.6% K rate vs. lefties and is only walking at a rate of 3.7%. The K rate is ranked seventh-worst in baseball and the walk rate is ranked last in baseball. The Braves offense is also posting a wRC+ mark of 113, so they are potent, but Rogers should be able to navigate his way to six strikeouts in this one.
Ian Anderson has struck out 13 hitters across his first 10 1/3 innings pitched and has also struck out at least six in both of his previous starts. He is facing a Marlins lineup that currently ranks ninth-worst in the league with a 26.5% K rate vs. right-handed pitchers. Charlie Morton just posted a nine strikeout game against these Marlins last night and this is a number he did not reach at all in 2020. This is a great spot for Anderson.
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