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The 2021 MLB is underway and there is a ton of excitement surrounding it! It was a long offseason, but we have finally reached the beginning of the MLB season. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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A few games we can look at today include the Star Shootout Main Games, Tigers at Astros, and Nationals at Cardinals.
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Star Shootout: Main Games
More or Less Contest
Tyler Glasnow more than 7.5 strikeouts and Gerrit Cole more than 6.5 strikeouts
Glasnow has been superb as he now has 15 strikeouts across his first 12 innings pitched to begin the season. He has a solid matchup at home vs. the Texas Rangers in this one. Currently, the Rangers are posting a 27.1% K rate vs. right-handed pitching, which is ranked seventh-worst in the league. Glasnow also posted 43 strikeouts across 26 innings pitched at home in 2020, so he clearly has something going for him in terms of home/away strikeouts splits.
This number is set too low for Cole once again. He just faced these Blue Jays and struck out eight in a shortened 5 1/3 innings pitched on Opening Day. In his last start, he also managed to mow down 13 Orioles. This guy is absolutely electric and to have his total set at 6.5 is a gift. The Blue Jays are also striking out at a clip of 25.5% vs. right-handers, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. Lastly, if this number rises, which it certainly will throughout the day, I would be comfortable going more than on a number as high as 8.5. He did manage to strike out eight Jays in a shortened start last time out vs. them and there is no reason to think he won't be able to do it again and then some.
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Tigers @ Astros
More or Less Contest
Casey Mize less than 4.5 strikeouts and Zack Greinke more than 4.5 strikeouts
I am a big fan of Casey Mize, but I do not think the matchup is right here for him to get more than 4.5 strikeouts vs. this Astros lineup in Houston. He managed to strike out four Twins in his first start, but they are striking out at a rate of 26.1% vs. right-handed pitching. The Astros have been much better are they are currently posting a rate of 23.5% vs. righties, which ranks 11th best in baseball.
Greinke does not have the strikeout upside he once did, but he should have enough to get five Tigers, especially if he can pitch deep as he has in his previous two starts of six IP and seven IP, respectively. The Tigers have struggled vs. right-handers as they have a K rate of 27.7%, which ranks fifth-worst in the league. They also are posting a wRC+ mark of just 76, which has them ranked eighth-worst in the league, so Grinke should in fact be able to work deep here.
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Nationals @ Cardinals
More or Less Contest
Erick Fedde less than 15.5 pitching outs and John Gant less than 13.5 pitching outs
Fedde is not much of a starter, to begin with as he has never started more than 12 games in a season. In his last start against the Braves on April 7th, he managed to throw just 1 2/3 innings before getting the yank. He is likely going to pitch somewhere around four innings in this game against a very capable Cardinals' offense that is posting a 92 wRC+ mark against right-handers. Even if he went as far as he possibly could, I do not think Fedde gets past five.
Jon Gant had a solid start in his last game against the Marlins as he only allowed one run on four hits, but also walked three. He also only managed to pitch four innings, which tells me if he gets into any trouble, he is likely to get pulled early. He is also fighting for a spot in the rotation, which means the Cardinals don't have a ton of faith in him, to begin with. Washington has struggled vs. right-handers to begin the season, so there is some risk in this prop, but the less than seems like the play here.
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