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Monday features a slate of 11 MLB games, including several attractive prop bets available at MKF. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.
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Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest #1
Dinelson Lamet more than 7.5 strikeouts, Kyle Freeland less than 3.5 strikeouts.
Dinelson Lamet more than 7.5 strikeouts:
Lamet has been excellent so far this season, picking up eight or more strikeouts in four of his eight starts. Lamet relies primarily on his slider for whiffs; not only does he throw the pitch more than half of the time (51.65% usage rate so far this season), but it’s also been extremely effective with a 23.4% swinging-strike rate and a .203 xwOBA. Lamet will go up against a Rockies offense that has posted an 18% swinging-strike rate against sliders so far this season and has been generally inept on the road with a 25.2% strikeout rate and .649 OPS away from Coors Field. That should allow Lamet to pick up at least eight strikeouts on Monday and makes him worth betting on.
Kyle Freeland less than 3.5 strikeouts:
Freeland gets the benefit of being away from Coors Field on Monday, but he’s slated to pitch against an imposing San Diego offense. The Padres boast a 21% strikeout rate and a .805 OPS against southpaws so far this season, and the team has been particularly good against Freeland’s go-to pitch (changeup) with a .333 xwOBA against changeups that ranks third-best in the major leagues. Combined with Freeland’s already lackluster strikeout ability given his career 18% strikeout rate, the unfavorable matchup makes Freeland unlikely to collect more than three strikeouts on Monday.
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Home Run Derby Contest
Wil Myers, Manny Machado, and Trevor Story hit at least one home run.
Wil Myers:
Myers has always been better against lefties than righties, but he’s hit particularly well against southpaws so far this season. Four of Myers’s nine home runs have come against lefties this season, giving him an 8.5% home run rate and a 1.261 OPS against lefties. It’s a small sample size, but Myers has also destroyed changeups this season with a 1.254 OPS against the pitch, and he’s got a solid .740 OPS against changeups for his career. That should give him a good chance of going yard against Kyle Freeland and a Colorado bullpen that’s allowed 21 home runs over 133 innings so far this year.
Manny Machado:
Machado has matched Myers’s four home runs against lefties this season, but he’s been slightly worse against changeups with a .690 OPS against the pitch so far this season and a .734 mark for his career. Still, Machado has a reasonably high chance of homering against Freeland and the Rockies’ bullpen and is a solid addition to this group.
Trevor Story:
Story is considerably worse on the road than at home, but he mashes sliders and gets a relatively favorable matchup in Lamet as a result. Story has posted a 1.149 OPS against sliders so far this season, and four of his nine home runs have come against the pitch. As good as Lamet has been, he has allowed more than one home run per nine innings, and Story likely has the best chance of any Colorado batter to homer on Monday.
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Early Games Star Shootout: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest #2
Josh Donaldson more than 1.5 total bases, Andrew McCutchen less than 1.5 hits/walks.
Josh Donaldson more than 1.5 total bases:
Donaldson should have no trouble getting at least two total bases on Monday, making this my favorite prop of the day. Donaldson has posted an xSLG above .500 in four of the past five seasons, and he’s posted a .448 mark over his last 50 plate appearances. Donaldson will go up against who is effectively an opener in Micheal Fulmer (1.043 OPS allowed so far this season), before facing a Detroit bullpen that’s allowed a .406 SLG that’s been a little lucky based on the unit’s .270 BABIP, especially considering that the Detroit starters have allowed a .310 BABIP so far this year. Overall, Donaldson should comfortably pick up at least two total bases on Monday.
Andrew McCutchen less than 1.5 hits/walks:
McCutchen went on a tear of five multi-hit games in six opportunities at the end of August, but he’s cooled off in September and reached base at least twice in only two of his last five games. McCutchen will go up against promising Mets rookie David Peterson, and although Peterson has walked batters at a 10.7% clip, McCutchen has chased pitches outside of the strike zone at a 25.3% rate this season and is walking in only 6.5% of his plate appearances. The Mets bullpen has also been solid this season with a .332 OPB allowed, making it unlikely that McCutchen reaches base more than once on Monday.
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