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It's hard to believe, but some teams are already a quarter of the way through the MLB season. Unfortunately, with the quarter-season mark sitting at just 15 games, early-season trends are difficult to rely on. Although that can make decisions difficult for fantasy players, it can also lead to opportunities for DFS players.
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Postponements are continuing to wreak havoc on the schedule, but Monday features a solid slate of 10 games. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.
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Nationals @ Mets: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Patrick Corbin more than 6.5 strikeouts and Steven Matz less than 4.5 strikeouts
Patrick Corbin struck out at least seven batters in 20 of his 33 starts last season, and he’s struck out eight in each of his two starts so far this season. The Mets have managed to post a strong 10.5% swinging-strike rate for the season so far, but the team looked lost against Corbin’s slider in their last matchup on August 4, with the pitch generating a 27% swinging-strike rate. That’s just a one-game sample, but the Mets posted an 18% swinging-strike rate against sliders in general last season, and Corbin’s slider is arguably the deadliest in all of baseball. Corbin’s slider should allow him to pick up at least seven strikeouts, even if the Mets have generally been a strikeout-averse offense so far this season.
Steven Matz consistently averages around one strikeout per inning, but the Nationals have posted a strong 10.1% swinging-strike rate so far this season after posting an impressive 9.5% mark last year. Matz primarily relies on his changeup to generate whiffs, but the Nationals posted a better than average 13.9% swinging-strike rate against changeups last season, so Matz will probably strike out less than one batter per inning on Monday. Although the Mets have been letting Matz throw deep into games this season, he’s struggled with home runs and is likely to be knocked out before the sixth inning on Monday, making his strikeout total likely to fall below five.
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More or Less Contest - Adam Eaton more than 1.5 hits/walks and Jeff McNeil less than 1.5 total bases
Adam Eaton less than 1.5 hits/walks - Eaton has been cold recently, but Matz is an excellent matchup for the 31-year-old. Sinkers and changeups accounted for more than 70% of Matz’s pitches last season (and even more so far this year), and Eaton owns a career .398 OBP against sinkers and a .312 OBP against changeups. Combined with Eaton’s consistently above-average walk-rate, his ability to hit Matz’s primary pitches make him likely to reach base at least twice on Monday.
Jeff McNeil less than 1.5 total bases - McNeil owns a career .459 xSLG and is facing a starting pitcher who hasn’t allowed a slugging percentage above .400 in a season since 2017. McNeil also faces a negative platoon split against Corbin, with McNeil's career SLG against southpaws dropping to .440 compared to .531 against righties. Even if Corbin is knocked out of the game, the Nationals bullpen has been strong so far this season, limiting opponents to a .221 batting average. McNeil wasn’t particularly good at hitting sliders last season, either, posting a .425 xSLG against the pitch. As a result, it’s unlikely that McNeil collects two or more total bases on Monday.
Diamondbacks @ Rockies: Home Run Derby Contest
Home Run Derby Contest - Trevor Story, Christian Walker, and Charlie Blackmon more than 0.5 home runs
Coors Field matchups are almost always worth betting on for home runs, and it’s hard to overstate the park’s effects. Despite posting the fourth-worst HR:FB in road games last season at 13%, the Rockies posted a high 17.5% HR:FB at home. Story, Escobar, and Blackmon all hit more fly-balls than ground-balls last season, and their matchups are strong as well.
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Story and Blackmon should have little trouble against Robbie Ray, who figures to rely primarily on his fastball and slider. Last season, Story posted a 93.2 mph average exit velocity against fastballs with an 89.6 mph mark against sliders, and Blackmon was similarly impressive.
Walker will face Jon Gray, who is also likely to rely largely on a fastball/slider combination. That’s good news for Walker, who posted a 93.5 mph average exit velocity against fastballs and an 89.4 mph mark against sliders last season. Further working in the hitters’ favor is that Ray and Gray have both posted higher-than-average HR:FB ratios in each of the past two seasons. At least one of the group should manage to hit a home run on Monday.
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