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Postponed games have wreaked havoc on the MLB schedule so far this year, but there’s a solid nine-game slate on Monday. With 18 teams playing, there are some solid opportunities for DFS players to cash in at Monkey Knife Fight.
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I’ll have MKF picks for MLB games every Monday for the rest of the season, so check back here for targets each week. With that in mind, below are some games to capitalize on today.
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Star Shootout More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Chris Paddack less than 5.5 strikeouts, Walker Buehler more than 4.5 strikeouts
The Padres have let to yet Paddack pitch more than 89 pitches in a game this season and are unlikely to do so on Monday based on Paddack’s usage last season. Despite Paddack throwing more than 90 pitches in only 42% of starts last year, those starts represent 53% of his games with at least six strikeouts. Paddack faces a Los Angeles team that rarely struck out last season and only got better over the offseason (even if Mookie Betts is held out of Monday’s game), so it’s tough to see Paddack picking up six or more strikeouts.
Buehler represents one of my favorite individual picks on Monday’s slate. Buehler got at least five strikeouts in all but five of his starts last season and averaged more than seven strikeouts per start. The reason that this prop is so low is that Buehler was limited to only 56 pitches in his first start of this season, in which he struck out three over 3.2 innings. Buehler is expected to throw closer to 80 pitches on Monday, though, and he should comfortably finish five innings on that pitch count. That gives Buehler a strong chance to collect more than four strikeouts for the game.
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More or Less Contest - Justin Turner less than 1.5 hits/walks, Wil Myers more than 0.5 total bases
Justin Turner Less Than 1.5 Hits/Walks - Turner is good and boasts excellent plate discipline, but Chris Paddack and the San Diego bullpen rarely walk batters, likely forcing Turner to need a multi-hit game on Monday. Turner had a multi-hit game in only 40 of his 135 games last season, and Paddack represents a tough matchup for any hitter. Considering that Turner posted a .283 xBA against offspeed pitches last season, Paddack should be particularly tough on the 35-year-old, making two or more hits/walks unlikely.
Wil Myers More Than 0.5 Total Bases - Myers has enjoyed a solid start to the season, and Walker Buehler is a sneaky good matchup for the 29-year-old (as much as Buehler can be a good matchup for anybody). With a .520 xSLG against fastballs last season, Myers should play well against Buehler, who threw his fastball more than 50% of the time last season. Buehler also throws very few offspeed pitches, which Myers has begun to struggle with over the past few seasons. Even if Myers posted his career-average .328 OBP on Monday, he would reach base roughly once every three at-bats. As a result, Myers should have little trouble picking up one or more total bases on Monday.
Late Games Star Shootout More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Mike Yazstremski more than 1.5 total bases and Josh Donaldson less than 1.5 hits/walks
Mike Yazstremski More Than 1.5 Total Bases - Yazstremski has been on fire to start the season with a .400/.561/.767 slash line over his first nine games, and he has a desirable matchup on Monday against the Rockies. Not only is Yazstremski playing at Coors Field where the average slugging percentage was .526 in July of last season, but he also enjoys a favorable platoon split with righty Chi Chi Gonzalez slated to take the mound for the Rockies. That makes Yazstremski an excellent DFS play on Monday, particularly in Monkey Knife Fight.
Josh Donaldson Less Than 1.5 hits/walks - Donaldson isn’t a lock to play on Monday as he continues to deal with a calf injury, and there’s a solid chance that the 34-year-old's calf is still an issue for Monday’s game. Donaldson has only missed two games with his tight calf so far this season, and he tends to miss at least three when experiencing calf tightness. If he does play, though, Donaldson has struggled so far this season and will likely still be bothered by his calf. Overall, Donaldson's injury risk and early-season slump make him worth betting against on Monday.
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