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The high number of seven-inning doubleheaders is going to lead to some interesting DFS results this season, particularly for pitchers. Monday's slate of games only includes one doubleheader, though, so fantasy players can feel comfortable relying on relatively "normal" analysis when looking for opportunities on Monday.
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Monday features 11 full games and two seven-inning doubleheaders, including a few games with attractive props at MKF. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.
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Padres @ Rangers: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Zach Davies more than 3.5 strikeouts and Shin-Soo Choo less than 1.5 hits/walks
Zach Davies more than 3.5 strikeouts: Davies looks like a new pitcher this year with a changeup-heavy pitch mix, and his adjustments have led to a career-high 21.2% strikeout rate. That’s not a high rate, but it’s enough to get Davies five or more strikeouts in three of his first four games this season, and he should be able to pick up at least four on Monday. The Rangers haven’t been particularly good against changeups so far this season with a 15.6% swinging-strike rate against the pitch, and they’ve posted a similarly not-great 13.1% swinging-strike rate against cutters (Davies’s third most-used pitch this season) so far this year. Davies should comfortably collect four strikeouts in five innings as a result, and he’ll likely last at least that long against the Rangers.
Shin-Soo Choo less than 1.5 hits/walks: As much as I love Choo for fantasy purposes, I don’t see him getting on base twice on Monday. Choo owns a combined career .325 OBP against changeups and cutters, so as long as Davies stays away from his sinker (which Choo tends to mash), he should manage to stop Choo from reaching base. Choo would then face a Milwaukee bullpen that’s allowed .290 OBP so far this season and should manage to keep the outfielder in check on Monday.
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Padres @ Rangers: Home Run Derby Contest
Home Run Derby Contest: Joey Gallo, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado hit at least one home run.
Gallo is one of the best home run hitters in baseball, and he’s got a great chance of homering off of Davies on Monday. Changeups and sinkers account for about three-quarters of Davies’s pitches this season, and Gallo owns a combined career 7% home run rate against those pitches. Combined with the fact that Davies has induced a ground-ball rate under 30% this season and that Gallo owns a career 24.3% HR:FB, Gallo’s ability to hit well against Davies’s primary pitches makes him likely to homer on Monday.
Tatis comes into Monday’s game leading the major leagues in home runs with nine, and he’s set to face a pitcher with a near-50% fastball usage rate in Jordan Lyles on Monday. Roughly one in every 10 fastballs that Tatis sees winds up in the seats and Lyles hasn’t been especially good at limiting home runs over the past few seasons, making it a favorable matchup for Tatis.
Machado isn’t nearly as dominant as Tatis, but he’s no slouch either. Machado’s career 6% home run rate against fastballs is solid, and he’s looked good so far this season with five home runs over his first 22 games. Machado is also an average hitter against curveballs (Lyles’s second most used pitch), providing somewhat of a hedge in case Lyles decides to rely less on his fastball on Monday.
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Mariners @ Dodgers: More or Less Contest
The pitching props in this one are a little too close to call, but the Corey Seager and J.P. Crawford props are extremely appealing.
More or Less Contest: Corey Seager more than 1.5 total bases and J.P. Crawford less than 1.5 hits/walks
Corey Seager more than 1.5 total bases: Seager has been fantastic this year with a .531 SLG and a .798 (yeah, .798) xSLG, and he goes up against Justin Dunn, who’s allowed a .449 SLG through his first four starts this season. Dunn’s pitch mix shouldn’t hurt Seager, either. Dunn almost exclusively throws a fastball and a slider, pitches against which Seager owns a combined career .529 SLG. Working even further in Seager’s favor is that the Seattle bullpen hasn’t been any better with a .471 SLG, so even if Dunn gets knocked out early, then Seager is still likely to see favorable matchups. This is probably my favorite individual prop of the night, and DFS players should be confident in Seager’s ability to collect two or more bases on Monday.
J.P. Crawford less than 1.5 hits/walks: Crawford has reached base frequently so far this season with a .391 OBP, but he’s never played particularly well against curveballs with a career .333 OBP against the pitch (.222 OBP so far this season), so Ross Stripling should manage to keep him from reaching base with one of the best curves in baseball. Once Stripling leaves the game, he’ll turn the ball over to a dominant bullpen that’s held opponents to a .266 OBP, and both Stripling and the Los Angeles bullpen are backed by an excellent defense that should make it even harder for Crawford to reach base. It’s unlikely that Crawford gets on base more than once on Monday as a result, making this prop an attractive opportunity.
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