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I’ll have MKF picks for MLB games every Monday for the rest of the season, so check back here for targets each week. With that in mind, here are some good opportunities to check out this Monday.
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White Sox @ Indians: More or Less Contest
Dylan Cease less than 5.5 strikeouts and Aaron Civale more than 4.5 strikeouts
Dylan Cease Less Than 5.5 Strikeouts - Cease finished last season with a 25% strikeout rate, but his 11% swinging-strike rate was relatively low, and his matchup against the Indians is a poor one. The Indians struck out less frequently than all but five teams last season, and their contact-heavy offense should keep Cease’s strikeout total down. Given the matchup, Cease will probably have to last at least six full innings to hit six strikeouts, something that he did only once last season. Furthermore, the White Sox don’t expect Cease to last more than five or six innings at most on Monday, making it more unlikely that he hits six strikeouts.
Aaron Civale More Than 4.5 Strikeouts - Strikeouts don’t come in bunches for Civale, but a favorable matchup and expected length should allow him to strike out at least five batters on Monday. Civale threw more than 100 pitches in a preseason intrasquad outing, and the Indians appear set to let the 25-year-old pitch late into Monday’s game. Also working in Civale’s favor is that the White Sox batters collectively struck out at a top-10 rate last season and are doing so again so far this year. Even a fairly conservative 7.2 K/9 (Civale’s 2019 average) from Civale on Monday would mean he only has to last 6.1 innings to pick up five strikeouts, so he should hit the over.
Star Shootout Main Games: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Jose Ramirez more than 1.5 total bases and Bryce Harper more than 1.5 total bases.
Jose Ramirez More Than 1.5 Total Bases - Ramirez is coming off a three-hit game, and he comes into Monday’s game with hits in each of his first three games. Even in a down year last season Ramirez collected at least two bases in over 40% of his games, and he has a favorable matchup against the White Sox on Monday. Dylan Cease and his reliance on strikeouts are unlikely to phase Ramariez and his career 5.1% swinging-strike rate, and Ramirez should benefit from facing the team that ranked 26th in defensive runs saved last season when he does put the ball in play. Expect another big night from Ramirez on Monday.
Bryce Harper More Than 1.5 Total Bases - J.A. Happ is one of the more fly-ball-heavy pitchers in baseball with a career 0.68 GB/FB ratio, and that should allow Bryce Harper to thrive on Monday. Although he tends to be slightly worse against righties than lefties, Harper feasts against fly-ball pitchers with a career .563 SLG against them. Additionally, Harper’s real struggles tend to come against power pitchers, and with a fastball that sits in the low-90s, J.A. Happ does not fit into that category. A home run is relatively likely for Harper as a result, but even if he doesn’t get a long ball then two total bases should be more than doable.
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