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Baseball season is underway and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.
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As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Friday, August 7th presents a slate of 15 games for us to choose from. Boy, does that feel nice to say! Some games we can try to take advantage of include the Braves at Phillies, Indians at White Sox, and a Star Shootout Contest.
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Braves @ Phillies: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Vince Velasquez less than 5.5 strikeouts and Kyle Wright less than 4.5 strikeouts
Velasquez has the ability to rack up strikeouts when he is in an optimal situation, however, Friday night is not optimal for him in any way. He will be going up against a Braves offense that is drastically reducing its K rate vs. right-handed pitching as they now stand at a rate of 26.2% and falling. The Braves also rank second in baseball vs. righties with a 129 wRC+ mark. Due to cancellations from Covid-19, this will also be Velasquez's first start since July 26th where he went just three innings, so there could certainly be rust to kick off in the early going. Kyle Wright is a young prospect who has a ton of talent. He reminds me a lot of a younger Trevor Bauer; he has great stuff, but often struggles to control it. This is noted by his seven walks allowed through his first six innings pitched. He faces an offense in the Phillies that is not striking out vs. right-handed pitching early in the season as they rank second in all of baseball with a rate of just 17.7%. While the sample size is smaller than most due to their cancellations, it is still a low rate overall. They also are posting the eighth-best BB rate at 11%, so they can likely make Wright pay when he loses guys in the count. Add in the 10th best wRC+ at 110 and the Phillies could get on him tonight.
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More or Less Contest - Freddie Freeman more than 1.5 hits/walks and Bryce Harper more than 1.5 total bases
Freddie Freeman More than 1.5 hits/walks - Freddie Freeman has been solid vs right-handed pitching as he has posted an OBP above .400 vs righties in three of the past four seasons with a .385 in the one season he did not reach .400. Velasquez has struggled vs. lefties as he has had over a five ERA to left-handed hitters in each of the past three seasons and posted a 5.37 FIP and four BB/9 in 2019. Freeman is also 9/27 off Velasquez for his career.
Bryce Harper more than 1.5 total bases - Left-handed hitters have absolutely terrorized Kyle Wright early in his career. This is noted by his 5.21 FIP in 2019 and 7.49 FIP so far in 2020. While the sample size is limited, the struggles cannot be denied. Harper has hit right-handed pitching well over his career and has posted an OBP of .385 and crushed 46 HR since 2018.
Star Shootout: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Dylan Cease less than 6.5 strikeouts and Matthew Boyd less than 6.5 strikeouts
Dylan Cease's total is about two strikeouts too high in my opinion. He has only struck out five batters across 8.2 IP to start the season, so why they placed him at 6.5 is a question mark to me. He does face the Indians, who have struck out at a rate of 27% vs. right-handed pitching, but they have also already faced Cease and only struck out once in 2.1 IP against him. They also were not confused by his pitch mix as they tagged him for four ER in that short start. Matthew Boyd faces a Pirates offense that has done VERY well vs. left-handed pitching to start the season. The Pirates rank fourth in baseball vs. lefties with a 16.7 percent K rate. They are also ranked sixth in baseball vs. lefties with a 137 wRC+ mark. This is a bad combination for Boyd, who has allowed eight ER and only struck out eight in his first 10 IP this season.
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Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Dylan Cease less than 6.5 strikeouts and Aaron Civale more than 5.5 strikeouts
My rationale for going less on Cease is written above, but I also like pairing him with the more than 5.5 strikeouts for Aaron Civale. Civale has burst on to the scene in 2020 as a possible budding star in the very talented Indians rotation. He has started the season by striking out 18 batters across just 12 IP in two starts. One of those starts came against these same White Sox where he struck out nine batters across six innings. The fact that his total is this low just 10 days after dominating the Sox is puzzling. The White Sox also rank 11th-worst in baseball with a 24.9% K rate vs right-handed pitching, so the over certainly makes sense in this contest.
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More or Less Contest - Carlos Santana more than 1.5 hits/walks
Carlos Santana more than 1.5 hits/ walks - Santana has started the season slower than usual, but his ability to get on base is still prominent, which is why I always like him for these types of contests. In 2020, he is currently sporting a .386 OBP. Not bad for a guy who is still on the struggle bus and this is in large part because he has been able to draw 15 walks in his first 14 games.
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