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The 2021 MLB Season is moving along nicely and we are having a ton of fun with pitcher strikeouts props so far. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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Tonight, we will look at some props from the White Sox at Pirates, Braves at Mets, and Giants at Angels.
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White Sox @ Pirates
More or Less Contest
Lucas Giolito less than 7.5 strikeouts and Tyler Anderson less than 4.5 strikeouts
K props are tough all around tonight, so I want to begin by putting that out there. Lucas Giolito is certainly capable of going over this total as he has done it in four of his previous six starts. That being said, he is facing a Pirates team that just isn't striking out at the moment. Over the previous 10 days, they are posting a K rate of just 19.8%, which is ranked fifth-best in baseball. They also have a respectable 9.4% walk rate, which is ranked 12th-best in baseball. The one thing to consider here is that he is pitching in an NL park and will get to face the pitcher at least once and likely twice, but he also has a 4.70 ERA on the road compared to a 3.35 ERA at home.
Tyler Anderson will be facing the White Sox who are posting just a 19.1% K rate vs. left-handers over the previous 10 days and are also posting a 110 wRC+ mark against them over that same span. This will be a tough matchup for Anderson who has failed to reach this total in each of his previous four starts.
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Braves @ Mets
More or Less Contest
Charlie Morton less than 6.5 strikeouts and Marcus Stroman more than 4.5 strikeouts
I have struggled a bit on predicting Charlie Morton in 2021, but I cannot help myself in trying to gauge his prop. He sits at 6.5 tonight, which is a number he has gone over just five times in his 14 total starts and a number he has only reached once in his previous four starts. He is facing the Mets who have the seventh-highest K rate vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, but they are also walking the ninth-most over that span, which is where Morton can find himself some trouble. Morton is also posting a 4.28 road ERA and has 29 strikeouts across 27 1/3 innings pitched.
Marcus Stroman has been solid lately as he has eclipsed this total in five of his previous six starts and has struck out eight in each of his previous two starts. The Braves are posting a 23.1% K rate vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked 13th-worst over that span. Stroman should certainly be able to get over 4.5 and it is likely this number will move up throughout the day.
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Giants @ Angels
More or Less Contest
Anthony DeSclafani less than 4.5 strikeouts and Andrew Heaney more than 4.5 strikeouts
Disco has been solid this season in terms of strikeouts, but he has also had plenty of games where he failed to reach this threshold. He has only gone over this total in four of his previous nine games and he has a tough matchup in an AL park against these Angels. The Angels are posting the seventh-best K rate against right-handers over the previous 10 days with a rate of 20.2%. They are also raking as they have a wRC+ mark of 146, which is ranked third-best in baseball over the previous 10 days. This prop will likely be tight, but leaning with the less than feels like the correct play.
Andrew Heaney has gone over this total in four straight starts and all but two starts on the season, so this number feels a bit curious. While the Giants are posting a 23% K rate against left-handers over the previous 10 days, this number is not elite enough to pull me off a more than on Heaney. The Giants are also posting just an 88 wRC+ over the previous 10 days against lefties, which is ranked 17th over that span.
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