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The 2021 MLB Season is moving along nicely and we are having a ton of fun with pitcher strikeouts props so far. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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Today, we will look at the Giants at Reds, Yankees at Rangers, and Pirates at Braves.
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Giants @ Reds
More or Less Contest
Tyler Mahle more than 6.5 strikeouts and Johnny Cueto less than 4.5 strikeouts
Mahle gets a solid matchup today against a Giants team that is striking out at a rate of 30.5% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks third-worst in baseball over that span. Mahle faced these Giants back on April 14th and managed to strike out seven in that one. I always like to play some overs on day games due to players' biological clocks being a bit off and that is certainly the case for this early start.
Johnny Cueto has failed to reach this total in his previous three starts, one of which was against these Reds. The Reds have also been superb against right-handed pitching over the previous 10 days as they are posting a K rate of just 17.3%, which ranks second-best in baseball over that span.
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Yankees @ Rangers
More or Less Contest
Domingo German more than 5.5 strikeouts and Dane Dunning more than 4.5 strikeouts
This feels like a great spot for German, who has struck out six in his last five starts. He will be facing a Rangers team that is striking out at a rate of 24.9% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked 11th-worst in baseball over that span. They are also posting just an 8.4% walk rate and a 66 wRC+ mark over that same span. He should be able to cruise through a lineup that his teammate, Corey Kluber, just no-hit last night.
Dane Dunning is a bit riskier in this one, but he has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in all but two starts in 2021. The Yankees are posting a K rate of 23.1% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which should be high enough for Dunning to reach at least five. The fact that they are only walking at a clip of 6.6% (seventh-worst) over the previous 10 days, should also help his cause immensely.
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Pirates @ Braves
More or Less Contest
Drew Smyly less than 6.5 strikeouts and Wil Crowe more than 3.5 strikeouts
Smyly has only gone over this total once and it was in his first start of the season, so I am not sure why he is set at 6.5 here. The Pirates are posting a K rate of 25.0% vs. left-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked inside the top half of baseball. They are also posting a respectable wRC+ mark of 96 and an OPS of .725, so they can certainly give Smyly enough trouble to keep him under seven strikeouts.
Wil Crowe has struck out five in each of his previous two starts and will now be facing the Braves who are posting a K rate of 33.5% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is dead last in baseball. They are also posting a wRC+ of just 46, which is the second-worst in baseball. Crowe has also built his innings up as he has thrown at least five innings in each of his previous three starts.
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