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The 2021 MLB Season is moving along nicely and we are having a ton of fun with pitcher strikeouts props so far. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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Today, we will look at the Mets at Rays, Braves at Brewers, and Marlins at Dodgers.
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Mets @ Rays
More or Less Contest
Tyler Glasnow less than 8.5 strikeouts and David Peterson more than 4.5 strikeouts
I do not like betting against Tyler Glasnow often, but this appears to be a pretty tough matchup for him in the Mets. The Mets are posting a ridiculous 13.5% walk rate vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is second-best behind only the Yankees. This tells me they have been patient at the plate and will make Glasnow work for his strikeouts. They are also posting a K rate of just 18.7% against right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is also second-best in baseball. In the games Glasnow failed to reach nine strikeouts, he faced similar teams in the Angels and Yankees. This is likely one of the few times I will recommend the less than on Glasnow.
David Peterson has one of the best matchups on the board tonight. Currently, the Rays are posting a K rate of 36.2% against left-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked dead last in baseball over that span. They are also walking at just a 6.0% rate and posting just a 57 wRC+ mark over that same span. He should be able to perform well in this one based on these metrics and he has also managed to go over 4.5 strikeouts in three of his six starts. He failed to reach this total against teams that have been stronger against lefties in the Red Sox and Cubs (when they were better against lefties).
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Braves @ Brewers
More or Less Contest
Drew Smyly more than 4.5 strikeouts and Adrian Houser less than 4.5 strikeouts
The Brewers are striking out at a rate of nearly 27% vs. left-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked in the bottom half of the league. They are also posting a sub 100 wRC+ mark and sub 10% walk rate vs. lefties over that same span. Smyly is no strikeout savant, but he should be able to get five Brewers in this one as the main reason he has failed to reach this total in all but one start has been the opponent's ability to hit lefties.
I am not buying Houser's 10 strikeout game against the Marlins in his last outing. This is a guy that has only averaged a K per inning once in his career. The Braves are posting a 24.7% K rate vs. righties over the previous 10 days, which is not great but also is not horrid. Houser has only managed to go over 4.5 strikeouts twice in 2021 and both came against the Miami Marlins.
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Marlins @ Dodgers
More or Less Contest
Clayton Kershaw more than 6.5 strikeouts and Sandy Alcantara more than 4.5 strikeouts
The Marlins have been struggling quite a bit vs. left-handers over the previous 10 days as they are posting a K rate of 31.4%, which ranks third-worst in the league over that span. They are also posting the second-worst walk rate over that same span with a rate of just 3.8%, which means Kershaw should be able to cruise in this one, especially when you pair it with the Marlins' 51 wRC+ mark. Kershaw has been solid thus far in 2021 as well as he has gone over this total in four starts.
This number seems too low for Sandy even though he is facing the Dodgers. The Dodgers do have a solid K rate vs. righties over the previous 10 days, but it is still above 20% as it currently sits at 21.5%, which should be high enough for Alcantara to get five strikeouts. He has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in five of his eight starts in 2021 and has reached at least four in every single start.
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