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A couple of games we can look at today include the Tigers at White Sox, Padres at Diamondbacks, and Angels at Rangers.
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Tigers @ White Sox
More or Less Contest
Lucas Giolito more than 7.5 strikeouts and Jose Urena less than 3.5 strikeouts
Lucas Giolito had a horrible outing in Boston last week at Fenway Park, but gets exactly what the doctor ordered in a home start against the Detroit Tigers tonight. The Tigers are currently posting a K rate of 28.2% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks fifth-worst in baseball. They are also posting a wRC+ mark of just 56 across that same span and are only walking at a clip of 5.6%, so Giolito should be able to cruise here. He has also gone over 7.5 strikeouts in three of his four starts.
While Jose Urena is capable of going over 3.5 strikeouts as he has in three of his four starts this season, he finds himself with a very tough matchup against the Chicago White Sox in this one. The White Sox are only striking out at a rate of 20% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks fifth-best in baseball. They are also destroying the baseball as they have a wRC+ mark of 131, which is the fourth-best in baseball. Urena could certainly get to four in this one, but it is a very tough matchup, and feels like the White Sox will get to him early, which is why I like the less than here.
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Padres @ Diamondbacks
More or Less Contest
Merrill Kelly less than 4.5 strikeouts and Chris Paddack more than 4.5 strikeouts
Merrill Kelly has only gone over this total once in 2021 and has faced high K-rate teams like the Rockies and the Reds. While the Padres do have a high K rate over the previous 10 days, that could be an overreaction as they were the best team in baseball in terms of strikeouts against right-handers until recently. They are still posting a walk rate inside the top 11 over the previous 10 days and have the talent to get to any pitcher as they did the Dodgers over the weekend. They will be oozing with confidence in this one and it should be a tough matchup for Kelly.
This number was 6.5 for Chris Paddack last night and has already dropped to 4.5, which is a prime spot to take the more than. He is coming off a solid start in which he struck out seven Brewers across five innings while only allowing one earned run. He gets a solid matchup vs. the Diamondbacks who are striking out at a rate of 26.1% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days. which ranks ninth-worst in baseball over that span. Their mark of 89 wRC+ is also in the bottom half of the league over the previous 10 days, so hopefully, Paddack will be able to navigate this lineup long enough to hit the more than in this one.
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Angels @ Rangers
More or Less Contest
Mike Foltynewicz less than 5.5 strikeouts and Jose Quintana less than 5.5 strikeouts
Foltynewicz has gone over this total in three of his four starts, but two of those starts he barely got over the total and landed on six. One of those two starts was against this Angels squad in his last start, which is part of the reason I like the less than here. I don't love when a pitcher sees a team for a second time on such short notice. The Angels have been better against right-handers lately as well as they are posting a K rate of just 23.5% over the previous 10 days, which ranks 12th-best in baseball. They also have the fifth-best wRC+ mark vs. righties over that span with a mark of 120.
Quintana has only gone over this total once and it was against these Rangers in his last start. Texas is not striking out that much vs. left-handers as their rate is just 22.5% vs. lefties over the previous 10 days, which has them ranked 12th best over that span. They are also posting a solid 10.3% walk rate and a 113 wRC+ mark over the previous 10 days against lefties. These numbers are also built behind a solid 160 PA, so Quintana could struggle a bit more this time around, which is why I like the less than in this one.
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