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The 2021 MLB is underway and there is a ton of excitement surrounding it! It was a long offseason, but we have finally reached the beginning of the MLB season. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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A couple of games we can look at today include the Cubs at Braves and Twins at Indians.
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Cubs @ Braves
More or Less Contest
Charlie Morton less than 6.5 strikeouts and Zach Davies less than 3.5 strikeouts
While Morton has had some solid performances to start 2021, he has missed this total in half of his games and actually has a pretty tough matchup against the Chicago Cubs tonight. While the Cubs were a free-swinging bunch we loved to attack the first couple weeks of the season, they are now just striking out at a rate of 24.6% against right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks inside the top half of the league. They are also swinging very hot bats as they currently boast the best wRC+ mark over that same span with a mark of 143 against righties. This is a tough matchup for Morton tonight.
Zach Davies is not much of a strikeout pitcher, to begin with as he has never been a K per 9 guy in his career. He has also only gone over 3.5 strikeouts once this season. Now, he will be facing a Braves lineup that is not striking out much at all vs. right-handers as they have the third-best K rate over the last 10 days at 18.8%. They are also posting the fifth-highest wRC+ mark over that same span with a mark of 124. This is a tough matchup for Davies and the less than looks like the play here.
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Twins @ Indians
More or Less Contest
Jose Berrios more than 6.5 strikeouts and Zach Plesac less than 5.5 strikeouts
This is a tough call on Berrios. While he has just five strikeouts in each of his last two starts, he has thrown eight and 12 strikeouts in games earlier this season, so seven is definitely achievable. He is fortunate to be catching the Indians at the right time as they are striking out at a clip of 28.1% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks sixth-worst in the league over that span. Sure, some of that number is inflated due to facing Gerrit Cole on Saturday, but not all of it. They are also struggling to score as they are posting just an 80 wRC+ mark over that same span.
Zach Plesac has had a couple of horrendous starts his last two times on the mound and it is very hard to trust him tonight. Minnesota is posting the seventh-best K rate against right-handers over the previous 10 days with a rate of just 21.9% percent. They are also posting the 10th-best wRC+ mark over that same span with a mark of 111. Plesac has only reached this prop total in one of his starts in 2021 and it was against the free-swinging Tigers. He will need to right the ship before we can trust a more than play with him again.
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