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Hello everybody and welcome! The 2021 MLB season and alive and well and that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For MLB, Single Stat consists of pitcher strikeout props in which you determine if the pitcher in question will go over or under their projected strikeout total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. For today's article, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Single Stat pitchers and explain why a pitcher will or will not go over their projected strikeout total. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Single Stat MLBP Totals
J.A. Happ under 4.5 strikeouts - Happ has not gone over 4.5 strikeouts in either of his first two starts to begin the season and is not much of a strikeout pitcher these days. He will be facing a Pirates team that is not striking out much vs. left-handed pitchers as they are currently posting a rate of just 20.5% over the previous 10 days, which ranks seventh-best in baseball. They have also been patient vs. lefties as they are walking at a rate of 12.0%, which has them ranked sixth-best in the league.
Sonny Gray over 6 strikeouts - Sonny Gray looked solid in his debut last weekend against the Indians as he struck out six batters across 4 1/3 innings pitched. Tonight, he gets another solid matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals who are striking out at a rate of 26.4% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks eighth-worst in the league. They are also posting a wRC+ mark of just 78 vs. righties, which has them ranked seventh-worst in the league.
Casey Mize over 4 strikeouts - Casey Mize has too much talent to be listed at four strikeouts tonight. He has struck out at least four in all three of his starts in 2021 and managed to get five Astros two starts ago, which is not an easy feat. He is facing the Royals tonight, and although they are not striking out much vs. righties over the previous 10 days, they are only posting a 7.1% walk rate and a wRC+ mark of 93, both of which are ranked in the bottom half of the league over the previous 10 days. He is probably a bit more of a risky play given the Royals strikeout totals, so it may be best to use him in a flex play, but I think he gets over the threshold.
Erick Fedde under 4 strikeouts - I know Fedde just struck out nine Diamondbacks, but I am not buying it. He has never been a K per nine guy in his career, plus the Diamondbacks have the ninth-worst strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days. Enter the Mets, who have a K rate of just 21.6% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days and are posting a .306 wOBA across that same span. Fedde is also posting just a 20% K rate vs. current Mets projected to be in the lineup tonight.
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