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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another great MLB DFS slate. We're approaching the final month of the regular season now, so let's secure a tournament takedown before we move on to football. I'm locking in on this nine-game slate!
We have some excellent matchups today. The pitching mix is unusually horrible on this slate, so that will certainly lead to interesting lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative today.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 8/25/2024 and the slate locking at 1:35 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Tanner Houck vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($8.8K DK, $9.3K FD)
The pitching options on this slate are dreadful, and none of them give you an especially safe feeling. That said, I believe Tanner Houck is the best way to go.
Houck sports a strong 3.01 ERA through 25 starts this season. His advanced metrics indicate some minor regression may be due, but a 3.96 xERA and 3.50 xFIP are respectable marks nonetheless. Houck's 21.2% strikeout rate is middling, though he finds success by limiting damage with a 5.5% barrel rate and an excellent 55.3% groundball rate.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are a tough matchup on paper, leading the majors with nearly 5.4 runs per game. It's not ideal, but this is a watered-down version of the Diamondbacks lineup. Arizona is presently without Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, and Gabriel Moreno.
Jonathan Cannon vs. Chicago White Sox ($6.2K DK, $7.5K FD)
Given that the expensive pitching can't be trusted, why not punt SP2 all the way down to Jonathan Cannon?
Cannon's 4.26 ERA and 4.62 xFIP adequately underscore how average he is. That said, he's consistent. Cannon has pitched at least six innings in seven of his past eight outings. Successfully rostering Cannon doesn't necessitate he strikes out 10 batters. At his price point, a quality start is all we need. Use those savings on hitting.
The primary reason Cannon looks like an acceptable option is his matchup. The Detroit Tigers are scoring only 4.1 runs per game this season. Their struggles include a 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching alongside a generous 24.1% strikeout rate and a .296 wOBA.
Also Consider: Kevin Gausman, Seth Lugo, Javier Assad, Cody Bradford
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bobby Witt Jr. - SS, KC vs. Kolby Allard ($6.6K DK, $4.1K)
Bobby Witt Jr. is on a shortlist of the best fantasy producers in baseball. He owns an incredible .336/.395/.608 slash line with 25 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 175 wRC+. His incredible output includes a .609 xSLG, 14.3% barrel rate, 49.9% hard-hit rate, and a .419 xwOBA. The price tag is steep, but Witt often pays it off.
Kolby Allard only has 13 innings pitched under his belt in 2024, but the body of work speaks for itself. Across a seven-year major league career, the southpaw sports a 5.97 ERA in 258 innings pitched. Opposing hitters have generated a .472 xSLG and an 8.8% barrel rate against Allard in his career.
Michael Busch - 1B, CHC vs. Adam Oller ($4K DK, $2.9K FD)
Michael Busch is one of several Chicago Cubs that look great today. His tendency to swing and miss limits his consistency, but the results are worthwhile when he makes contact. His fantastic batted-ball metrics include a 12.8% barrel rate and a 38.2% sweet-spot rate, resulting in 16 home runs and a .794 OPS.
Adam Oller will be a good name to target against on this slate. The 29-year-old sports a career 7.21 ERA over 98 2/3 innings pitched. Opposing hitters have generated a .511 xSLG and a 10.3% barrel rate versus Oller.
Connor Norby - 2B/3B, MIA vs. Javier Assad ($3.1K DK, $2.5K FD)
For value, look to Connor Norby as a high-upside punt play. His major league career spans just 14 games, but he's already slugged three home runs in that span. Norby is the third-ranked prospect in the Miami Marlins farm system. He produced an impressive .878 OPS with 17 home runs and 13 stolen bases across 94 games played in Triple-A this season.
“My expectations for myself are through the roof."
Connor Norby (Miami's No. 3 prospect) drilled his first @Marlins homer, all while remaining determined to master a new position: https://t.co/sBIyAGGbAl pic.twitter.com/EjjmTTKzOS
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 25, 2024
Javier Assad's 3.11 ERA looks great on the surface, but his success is undermined by a 4.52 xERA and 4.61 xFIP. While Assad certainly isn't the worst pitcher on this slate, he is more vulnerable than the results tell us. Opposing hitters have generated a .413 xSLG off of Assad, and right-handed hitters are slugging .458 against him on the season.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Aaron Judge - OF, NYY vs. Austin Gomber ($6.9K DK, $5.1K FD)
Does Aaron Judge require any introduction? He is the best hitter in baseball and is a justified player to roster any day he's available. On the season, Judge sports an incredible .332/.464/.725 slash line with 49 home runs and a 224 wRC+. That success includes a .748 xSLG, 27.8% barrel rate, 59.7% hard-hit rate, and a 95.9 MPH average exit velocity.
Austin Gomber is a preferred pitcher to attack on this slate. Through 24 starts, he owns an ugly 5.00 xERA, down from a 5.74 xERA in 2023. Gomber has been crushed by opposing hitters this season, surrendering a 10.3% barrel rate and a .488 xSLG.
Giancarlo Stanton - OF, NYY vs. Austin Gomber ($5K DK, $3.1K FD)
Following up with another New York Yankees bat, Giancarlo Stanton is live for a home run in this matchup. He's slugging .485 on the season with 22 home runs and a 119 wRC+, but the advanced numbers suggest he's due for even better results. Stanton has generated a .530 xSLG, 19.6% barrel rate, and a 53.7% hard-hit rate.
Jhonkensy Noel - 1B/OF, CLE vs. Cody Bradford ($3.5K DK, $2.9K FD)
Jhonkensy Noel is an affordable means of chasing a home run. The 22-year-old's major league career is just 40 games deep so far, but he has already made an impression, posting a .953 OPS with 11 home runs and a 150 wRC+. Noel's power has been on full display with a .472 xSLG and a 17.1% barrel rate.
Jhonkensy Noel hit this baseball into space 🌕 pic.twitter.com/QaSM3YTuqB
— MLB (@MLB) August 25, 2024
Cody Bradford has been reasonably successful over his first eight outings in 2024. He owns a 3.59 xERA and a 3.86 xFIP. That said, the sample size is small, and there is a hidden vulnerability to power. Bradford has surrendered an 8.9% barrel rate and a .424 xSLG this season, and right-handed hitters are slugging .459 against him for his career.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. New York Yankees vs. Austin Gomber
- Favorite Plays: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr.
2. Chicago Cubs vs. Adam Oller
- Favorite Plays: Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch
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