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Happy Monday! After only six games last Monday, MLB has gifted us with a monster 12-gamer tonight. Most games start in the early window, but there’s a healthy five-game slate in the late window as well. No team or pitcher looks to be mega-chalk tonight, meaning we can focus more on optimal builds rather than trying to play the ownership game.
The most interesting pitching matchup comes from the late window as Brady Singer and the Royals take on George Kirby and the Mariners. Gilbert should be the more popular play, but it’s Singer who grades out as the better play. The marquee game in the early window is the Cubs heading to Atlanta, but there’s a lot of fantasy goodness around the league at that time; including Milwaukee, Boston, and Philadelphia.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/13/2024 and the slate locking at 7:10 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Brady Singer (KC/RHP) at Seattle Mariners ($8.8K DK, $9.3K FD)
Brady Singer was one of only two pitchers to grade out as an elite play in my pitching model for today’s slate. He is one of only five pitchers on the slate with a 25% or higher strikeout rate, one of four pitchers with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of three or higher, and has the second-lowest xFIP on the slate. On top of that, his matchup is elite as well. The Mariners’ projected lineup has hit for next to no power against right-handed pitching, and they have a strikeout rate of over 30%, which is extremely high.
Singer has scored 17 DraftKings points, allowed under two earned runs in 75% of his starts, and he’s pitched at least five innings in every start so far in 2024. That he’s only the sixth-most expensive pitcher on the slate is a bonus on top of his great peripherals. He’s a strong option for both cash and tournament lineups.
It felt like 2024 was going to be make or break for Brady Singer. At 27 years old, he wasn’t out of his prime but he wasn’t getting any younger.
Seven starts won’t define Singer’s year. However, it’s a glimpse of what we all hope he can become. #Royals pic.twitter.com/fT84oJTREv
— Jack Johnson (@JohnyJ_15) May 9, 2024
Kutter Crawford (BOS/RHP) vs. Tampa Bay Rays ($8.6K DK, $9.6K FD)
The other pitcher to grade out as an elite play on this slate is Kutter Crawford. His strikeout rate is only a hair lower than Brady Singer's (24.3%), but his swinging strike percentage is 2% higher than Singer’s. He has the same strikeout-to-walk ratio as Singer, which has limited big innings against him. Crawford averages the fourth-most innings per start, forcing outs on an average of 17 batters per game. He’s allowed more than two earned runs only once all year, and he’s scored 19 or more DraftKings points in five of his eight starts. Only once has he scored lower than 15 DraftKings points all year.
Like the Mariners for Singer, the Rays are an outstanding matchup for Crawford. They hit for little power and have struck out 23.5% of the time against right-handed pitching. Singer has a little bit more upside in his matchup if you have to choose between the two, but there should be enough value on this slate with bats to be able to afford both elite arms. They are a high-floor cash game duo, with enough upside to be viable in tournament lineups as well.
Also Consider: Gavin Stone, Colin Rea, Jose Soriano, Randy Vasquez, Reynaldo Lopez
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Josh Naylor - 1B, CLE at Michael Lorenzen ($5.4K DK, $3.8K FD)
Michael Lorenzen is a reverse splits pitcher, meaning he struggles more against right-handed bats than lefties, but it’s hard to ignore what Josh Naylor has done this year. It seems like every other game he’s approaching 15 DraftKings points (four of his last seven games). For the season, Naylor has a .273 ISO, a .545 slugging percentage, and just a 9.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
He’s walked more than he’s struck out and hit eight of his 11 home runs against righties. Naylor has a hit in eight of his last nine games, so he’s coming into this matchup on a bit of a heater. Meanwhile, Lorenzen is struggling with a 7.50 ERA, 4.5 walks per nine, and 2.5 home runs per nine innings over his last four starts. Cleveland is in a great spot in this game and Naylor should be your first click on any Guardians stacks.
Josh Naylor is legitimately one of the best hitters in baseball pic.twitter.com/rsEqw8NaJh
— MLB Deadline News (@MLBDeadlineNews) May 12, 2024
Tyler Stephenson - C, CIN at Jordan Montgomery ($3.9K DK, $2.6K FD)
This may seem like an odd pick, but there’s data to support it. First and foremost is that Jordan Montgomery is getting walloped by righties this year, allowing a .522 slugging percentage on the season. Tyler Stephenson has been the Reds batter with the most power against lefties, hitting two home runs with an ISO of .241. Finally, Stephenson has had success against Montgomery in the past with four hits in six at-bats. He has a .833 slugging percentage and zero strikeouts in those at-bats. Stephenson is not a cash game play given his .213 batting average this year, but he could be a sneaky low-owned one-off play in tournament lineups.
Rafael Devers - 3B, BOS vs. Zach Eflin ($5K DK, $3.5K FD)
Rafael Devers pounds Zach Eflin, although Eflin is a reverse split pitcher. In 11 career at-bats, Devers has a 1.182 slugging percentage against Eflin on the strength of two home runs and two doubles. Devers hasn’t shown a ton of power yet this year with only four home runs, but he’s getting on base and just needs to find his groove for the power to come back. He has had at least one hit in 14 of his last 16 games, with six of those games being multi-hit performances.
Now, he’s getting to face a pitcher he’s hit very well in the past, with a lineup around him who is positioned to contribute to a big game. Eflin has allowed three or more earned runs in half of his starts this year, including three of four road games. He’s also been a bit homer-happy, with 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings on the season.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jo Adell, OF - LAA vs. Matthew Liberatore ($3.5K DK, $3K FD)
Jo Adell has hammered left-handed pitching this year. He’s got a .522 ISO and .523 wOBA with only a 12.5 strikeout rate in 24 plate appearances against lefties. He’s coming into this game hot, with three home runs over his last five games, scoring double-digit fantasy points in four of those games. He’s also got some sneaky speed, with seven stolen bases on the season. Adell is an all-or-nothing type of player, with only six total hits in his last 36 at-bats, making him a tournament-only option. As evidenced from his last handful of games, he can still produce even if it’s only from one swing of the bat. He’s not a cash game option today, but his price makes him a strong one-off or he can be part of an Angels mini-stack.
Nick Castellanos, OF - PHI at Sean Manaea ($4.2K DK, $2.9K FD)
Nick Castellanos started the year ice cold, but he’s back on track now. He's riding an eight-game hitting streak heading into tonight’s game against the Mets. Castellanos has hit a home run in two of his last three games, and he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in five of his last eight games; never falling below seven DraftKings points in any of those games. He should continue to see success tonight against Sean Manaea, against whom he’s feasted in the past. Castellanos has five hits in eight career at-bats, including two home runs and a double against Manaea. Given his current form, he is a viable cash game option, and he is a strong click in any Phillies right-handed bat stack.
Jake Bauers, OF - MIL vs. Mitch Keller ($4K DK, $2.9K FD)
I want to attack Mitch Keller tonight with lefty bats from the Brewers. Keller is coming off a great game against the Angels, but before that, he was not very good this year. He has allowed three or more earned runs in five of his eight starts, including three of his four road starts. Those three games were against Oakland, Washington, and Miami; not exactly a murderer’s row of bats! Keller has allowed a .462 slugging percentage against lefties this year, while Bauers has hit righties well, with a .211 ISO and .447 slugging percentage. Bauers is an inconsistent bat, so he’s not a cash option, but he’s a good piece of a Brewers left-handed bat stack that we can use to go after Keller.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Milwaukee Brewers vs. Mitch Keller (PIT/RHP)
Favorite Plays: Christian Yelich, Jake Bauers, Willy Adames, William Contreras, Rhys Hoskins
2. Houston Astros vs. Ross Stripling (OAK/RHP)
Favorite Plays: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Jon Singleton, Victor Caratini
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