We've got a real gem of a schedule today, with a wide range of possibilities at pitcher and a wealth of lineup options thanks to 15 games. Milwaukee at Minnesota is the lone day game of the slate, so get your lineups locked and loaded early if you have your eyes set on any Brewers or Twins.
As for insights Vegas can provide us with, the lines I lean on a little early in the season are the over/unders. It doesn't make or break my decision either way, but it's nice to know what the guys who do this for a living are thinking in terms of the offense they're expecting in each game. As of this writing, one-third of the games have over/unders of 8.5 runs or greater. They are the Rockies at Reds (8.5), Rays at Red Sox (8.5), Astros at Rangers (9), Angels at White Sox (8.5), and Brewers at Twins (8.5).
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 4/19/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.
DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel
Diamondbacks versus Matt Cain
I can't pinpoint the exact time that Matt Cain started to become undone, but his best days on the mound are certainly far behind him. Cain had a pretty terrible 2015 campaign, especially relative to what he's accomplished over his career, and he's off to a rocky start this season as well. This stack isn't one that I would say is completely ideal, thanks to San Francisco being more of a pitcher's park than a hitter's one, but it's one of the best available today. Last season, right-handed batters touched up Cain to the tune of a .367 wOBA and .512 slugging percentage and lefties did pretty well for themselves, too, posting a .404 wOBA and .583 slugging percentage. The home run numbers he allowed were sky high as well, allowing 1.78 HR/9 to right-handers and 2 HR/9 to lefties.
Astros right-handed batters versus Derek Holland
Though he never had quite the highs and successes that Cain had earlier in his career, Holland has unraveled, too, into a shell of his former self. He was awful last season, allowing 1.69 HR/9, with a 4.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. While batters from both sides of the plate hit him hard, right-handed batters in particular had their way with him, collectively averaging a .360 wOBA and a .511 slugging percentage - the second highest number of the day, behind only Cain.
Also Consider: Rockies left-handed batters versus Alfredo Simon
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel
Carlos Carrasco (SP, CLE) - $10,200
There are a lot of reasons to like Carrasco today for your cash game lineups, starting with the fact that this game is tied for the lowest projected number of runs (and over of just 7) and the Indians being comfortably favored on the moneyline at -157. After a rough season opener against the Red Sox, Carrasco looked like his former self the last time out, going eight innings strong against the Rays and striking out eight. Last season, Carrasco put up the type of numbers that make me comfortable with him on my roster today, posting a 3.63 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 10.88 K/9 and 0.88 HR/9.
Francisco Liriano (SP, PIT) - $9,500
I'm fairly certain that not only is Liriano the *safest* play of the day, he's also one of a handful of cash game guys that I think you could argue has enough strikeout upside (and is fairly priced) so much so that he's a solid tournament option, too. Liriano is coming off a shaky start, but pitched incredibly well in the season opener (6 IP, 0 ER, 10Ks) and has easily the best matchup of the day. The Padres offense is abysmal and they're also currently striking out in more than 28% of their at-bats against left-handed pitching. And despite being away from Pittsburgh, this game is being played in another very pitcher friendly park at Petco in San Diego.
Yordano Ventura (SP, KC) - $8,200
I'm a pretty big fan of Vincent Velasquez today, too, but Ventura gets the nod as my favorite tournament pitcher. Even with the full slate of games, I think Velasquez will be a popular pick thanks to the brilliant performance he turned in last week against the Phillies. Ventura could go a little overlooked and has averaged six strikeouts in his two starts this season after posting an 8.6 K/9 in 2015 to go with an 0.82 HR/9. His matchup tonight is one that creates a lot of strikeout upside, since the Tigers are currently striking out in nearly 26% of their at-bats against right-handed pitching, and Ventura can really bring the heat.
Also Consider: Stephen Strasburg (SP, WAS) - $11,300 (cash) and Vincent Velasquez (SP, PHI) - $9,000 (GPP)
DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel
Catcher (1B)
Wellington Castillo (C, ARI) - $2,500
It would be more than fair to say the start of Castillo's season has been an disappointment, as he's only hit and surpassed his price implied value once in 2016. I do, however, think he's one of the best values of the day and there isn't a position I'd rather try to squeeze value and power upside out of than catcher, as the rest of the crop ranges from underwhelming to "just okay." Castillo has the perfect matchup to break out of his slump with as he faces Matt Cain, who allowed a .512 slugging percentage to right-handed batters last season.
First Base (1B)
Tyler White (1B, HOU) - $3,000
As you might have noticed from my opinions on viable stacks today, I want to attack Derek Holland with as many power hitting right-handed bits as I can. White perfectly fits that description and he's priced as a real bargain tonight. It's an incredibly small sample size, but just to point out what White has done this season against southpaws, I have to mention his .945 wOBA and .750 ISO. I really love White in tournament formats.
Jose Abreu (1B, CHW) - $3,400
For my cash game lineups today, I really like Abreu's matchup and price here. He hasn't gotten off to the hottest of starts, but what better time to heat things up than when facing a pitcher in Matt Shoemaker that allowed a .480 slugging percentage and 1.82 HR/9 to right-handed batters in 2015? We could see a lot of balls flying out of US Cellular tonight.
Second Base (2B)
Jose Altuve (2B, HOU) - $4,900
Altuve has a wonderful matchup against Holland, who struggles with great right-handed hitters. Altuve's splits certainly favor him facing southpaws, too. He's pricy but he should hit value in this matchup, as he's done in six of his 10 games.
Also Consider: Brian Dozier (2B, MIN) - $2,800
Shortstop (SS)
The options at shortstop today remind me of the limited upside options we have at catcher, so I'm going to use this position to try and squeeze some value out of guys price below 3K.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS, TOR) - $2,900
Slow start or not, Tulo being priced below 3K is almost criminal. I know prices on DraftKings are inflated, but he's $1,300 less here on FanDuel than he is there. If you're looking for power upside and a pretty strong matchup, Troy is your guy tonight. He's not quite cash game safe, but certainly in play in tournament formats.
Also Consider: Jimmy Rollins (SS, CHW) - $2,600
Third Base (3B)
Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY) - $3,000
I'm tempted to go with Arenado here but A-Rod is such a bargain. In a small sample this season, Rodriguez has a .377 wOBA and a .258 ISO against left-handed pitching. He faces Eric Surkamp, who allowed a high .367 wOBA to right-handed batters back in 2015.
Also Consider: Nolan Arenado (3B, COL) - $5,100
DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel
Carlos Gonzalez (OF, COL) - $4,400
CarGo is off to yet another hot start and though he's not in Coors Field, he takes on Alfredo Simon today in a very power friendly hitter's park in Cincinnati. Thus far in 2016, Gonzalez has exceeded value in seven of 10 games and he has a matchup tonight I'm very excited for. In 2015, Simon allowed a .509 slugging percentage and 1.35 HR/9 to left-handed batters.
George Springer (OF, HOU) - $3,700
I'm not in love with the price here but I do love Springer hitting near the top of the order in a game with the highest run total projection of the day against a pitcher that can't throw to right-handed batters. This one could get away from Holland quickly, and I'm willing to be Springer provides some of the damage if that's the case.
Yasmany Tomas (OF, ARI) - $3,400
Since I already hit you with two expensive options in the outfield, I'm here to deliver some value with my Tomas suggestion. The Diamondbacks have the best matchup of the night, and as I pointed out, the right-handed batters have the edge here in Arizona. He's an absolute steal at this price when you consider the power upside and opposing pitcher.
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