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Welcome to another day of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!
A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
A lovely 2-0 day on Tuesday brings us within inches of evening out our unit total for the season, and puts my total record just over .500. I’m slowly getting more comfortable with each day, but again, this is an incredibly long season and baseball betting is filled with so many ups-and-downs. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Wednesday, May 12. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 3-4 (-1.2u)
- O/U Record: 9-7-2 (+1.15u)
- Runline Record: 4-4 (+0.45u)
- First 5 Record: 6-4-3 (+.73u)
- Prop Record: 2-4-1 (-1.71u)
- 2021 Total Record: 24-23-6 (-.58u)
Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves
O/U: 8 | ATL -112 TOR +102
Toronto: Hyun Jin Ryu; Atlanta: Max Fried
Aside from the long ball that seems to “derail” his starts, Ryu has been the ace Toronto needs through six starts. Over 32.2 IP, he’s carrying a 32/4 K/BB and has allowed just 12 earned runs. The southpaw is limiting hard contact and big innings at above average, to elite rates, making him a tough arm for the AL East. Offensively, Toronto has had some success against LHP, boasting a 106 wRC+c though they take a step back on the road. George Springer (quad) is absent again but we don’t need to do research to know how potent the rest of this lineup is.
Fried has been one of the bigger let downs in baseball to open 2021. The 27-year-old has made four starts and lasted just 16 total innings and has an 8.44 ERA. His FIP is in the fives and his xFIP is in the high three’s, so he’s definitely been dealt some bad luck, but his xERA and xwOBA are among the league’s worst so Fried has a lot of work ahead of him to get back to his last two years of work. Offensively, Atlanta has one of the worst lineups against LHP, carrying a .256 wOBA and a 59 wRC+ And those numbers don’t see a boost at home. They’ve been scoring more of late, average 5.6 runs per game over the L3, but facing a lefty will certainly test their output.
Fried is definitely set to get out of his slumps soon, but for now we have to trust the consistency of Ryu, as well as the better lineup in a lefty-lefty matchup.
Pick: Toronto ML (+102, Fanduel) 1 Unit
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 8.5 | ARZ -174 MIA +148
Miami: TBA; Arizona: Zac Gallen
The Marlins have been on a bit of a rough patch lately, dropping each of their last four, and not scoring more than three runs in any of those games. Facing an arm like Gallen won’t bode well for the em, as they host the fourth worst K% against RHP (27%) along with a .290 wOBA and an 89 wRC+. As of this writing, the Marlins haven’t named a starter yet for Wednesday’s game since they’re giving Trevor Rogers an extra day of rest. I will update this as a starter is announced.
Gallen is one of the top young pitchers in the game today and he’ll get to dave the team that traded him Wednesday. Through five starts (26.2 IP), he’s allowed just nine earned runs and seven have come in two starts. He’s only allowed one long ball and has had five or more strikeouts in every start, but one worrisome number is that he’s walked at least two in every start this year. This Miami series has been fruitful for the DBacks’ lineup, scoring 16 runs in the first two games. However, it’s not surprising since they’re at home and they have listed significant success at Chase Field in 2021. As a team, Arizona has a .360 wOBA, .207 ISO and a 125 wRC+, all top five marks in MLB.
Since Miami has yet to reveal their pitching strategy for Wednesday, we can bank a lot on what we’ve seen thus far. Arizona’s success at home is noted and now they have Gallen to fall back on, on the mound. I look for them to get ahead and stay ahead. A fun, small sample trend to back this play is Arizona is 5-1 on the runline as a home favorite in 2021.
Pick: Arizona -1.5 (+128, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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