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Welcome to another day of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!
A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
So it’s been a week since I’ve been here. Life has gotten in the way and has cut back on my time to even check lines, let alone write consistently. I’m not sure if I’ll be able to get back to the level I was at before, but as of right now, I’ll be here with you every Tuesday and Thursday. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 for some fun banter and also extra plays on days I don’t write. Below are my plays for Tuesday, May 25. Let's make some money and have fun, but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 4-4 (-.18u)
- O/U Record: 9-8-2 (+.15u)
- Runline Record: 4-5 (-.35u)
- First 5 Record: 7-4-3 (+1.63u)
- Prop Record: 2-5-1 (-2.71u)
- 2021 Total Record: 26-26-6 (-1.46u)
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
O/U: 9.5 | ATL -115 BOS +100
Atlanta: Charlie Morton; Boston: Garrett Richards
Morton returns following his best outing of the year, where he allowed just one run and two hits over six innings while striking out eight and walking none against the Mets. The veteran righty still has his “electric” stuff but has been a little more prone to blow up innings. Offensively, this Braves lineup just came off a series crushing of the Pirates, outscoring them 35-9 in four games. Oddly enough, they have had some issues against RHP in May. Despite the .191 ISO, the 28 K% and 84 wRC+ hint that it’s not all sunshine and rainbows with this lineup.
Richards has proven to be an effective arm in this Boston rotation. He’s allowed four or more runs in just three of his nine starts, and in four of his last five outings, he’s allowed two or fewer runs. His metrics hint at a big regression looming, but on the surface, Richards has been very effective. He’ll have a stout Red Sox lineup to back him up; one that is carrying a .216 ISO against RHP this month. Their 112 wRC+ is validation that they don’t have issues plating runs.
These offenses are dangerous, but both arms are in good form right now. I think if there is one pitcher who can hold the Red Sox back, it’s a ground ball pitcher like Morton. Atlanta could touch up Richards, but before the Pittsburgh series, the offense hadn’t exactly jumped off the page yet.
Pick: First 5 Innings Under 5 (+100, BetMGM) 1 Unit
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox
O/U: 8 | CWS -139 STL +128
St. Louis: Jack Flaherty; Chicago: Lucas Giolito
Flaherty comes in with a perfect, 8-0, record; the only start he didn’t record a decision in was on opening day when he gave up six runs. If you take out his first start, the righty has a 1.65 ERA with a 51/15 K/BB over 49 IP. While his 3.71 xFIP is still good, it hints he’s getting a bit lucky, which makes sense considering an 8-0 record in today’s game is surely lucky. The Cardinals’ lineup hasn’t exactly been lucky this month, posting a .235 average with a .683 OPS and just a 90 wRC+. Of course, they’re missing some key cogs in the lineup right now, like Tyler O'Neill.
Giolito has been impressive over the last month of games. Despite an outing where he allowed five runs, that is sandwiched in between three starts where he allowed just one run, including last start where he went eight innings. May has been food to the White Sox offense against RHP, especially at home. They boast a .328 wOBA and a 113 wRC+, so they’re clicking pretty well right now. Toss in getting swept by the Yankees last series, and you think I’m nuts, but this White Sox team is going to be a factor down the stretch.
On paper, this is a fantastic pitching matchup. Who actually expects Flaherty to continue on to go 9-0? I don’t. Chicago checks all the boxes in this one, in my opinion. Starting pitching, lineup, and bullpen. I don’t typically like eating a lot of juice on the moneyline, but its the play.
Pick: Chicago ML (-139, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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