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Welcome to another day of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!
A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
We had a nice hit on a F5 over in the Rays/Yanks game on Tuesday, but Cincinnati dropped a major ball for the ML. A 4-3 game in the sixth, Philadelphia went on to score 13 runs to clearly put that one out of reach. Small loss on the day, but still hovering around that .500 mark on the season. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 for some fun banter and also extra plays on days I don’t write. Below are my plays for Thursday, June 3. Let's make some money and have fun, but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 5-5 (-.57u)
- O/U Record: 9-10-2 (-1.85u)
- Runline Record: 4-5 (-.35u)
- First 5 Record: 9-4-3 (+3.53u)
- Prop Record: 2-5-1 (-2.71u)
- 2021 Total Record: 29-29-6 (-1.95u)
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
O/U: 9 | HOU -134 BOS +118
Boston: Martin Perez; Houston: Jake Odorizzi
The Red Sox staff has struggled this series with Houston, and while Perez will try to set the record straight and avoid a sweep, he’s a juicy matchup for this Astros lineup. The southpaw has inflated numbers against righties this season, including all four homers allowed coming against RHB. Perez does boast a 2.91 ERA on the road, but a 4.45 xFIP and .267 BABIP hint some regression is looming.
This Houston lineup devours left-handed pitching. Since the beginning of May, they’ve posted an .823 OPS, .353 wOBA, and a 133 wRC+. The Astros are fighting for a sweep Thursday, outscoring Boston 18-4 in the first three games of the series. Look for right-handed bats like Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve to get a huge boost today, but the rest of the lineup is just as deadly to southpaws.
I’m all over Houston’s offense today. May even look to throw some fun money down on HR props.
Pick: Houston Team Total Over 4.5 (-110, BetMGM) 1 Unit
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers
O/U: 9 | MIL -165 ARZ +148
Arizona: Jon Duplantier; Milwaukee: Brett Anderson
Arizona is one of the worst road teams in baseball, with just a 9-19 record so far. Duplantier made his season debut May 27 and struggled mightily. He has just 41.1 career innings with only four starts, so it’s an incredibly small sample for the 26-year-old, but a 1.60 WHIP and .358 BABIP is pretty eye opening. Offensively, Arizona is an easy target as visitors; since May 1, they have just a .189 average as a team with a .549 OPS on the road. Surprisingly, those numbers get worse when facing a LHP, so it’s really tough to expect much from this offense.
Milwaukee has been incredibly disappointing this far, but still find themselves in a battle for the weak NL Central. Anderson has posted, at best, respectable numbers but all signs are pointing to an implosion soon. He’s amongst the league’s worst in xSLG, xERA, xwOBA, and K% and has started to battle control issues over his last three outings. Milwaukee’s offense doesn’t struggle quite as bad as Arizona’s but they definitely have some work to do at home, posting a .200 average with a .655 OPS and 85 wRC+ since the start of May. Christian Yelich has returned to the lineup, but the former MVP hasn’t lived up to the billing just yet.
These offenses are enough to scare anyone away, but here we are. I’m going to put some trust in 1/4 of the season’s worth of a trend. When Arizona plays out of their division, the over is 22-13, the second highest rate in MLB. Whereas, Milwaukee, when playing out of the NL Central, the over is 19-15; a little closer to 50/50, but with Yelich looking to get back into his groove, I like this offense against an inexperienced RHP.
Pick: Over 9 (-112, Barstool Sportsbook) 1 Unit
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