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Welcome to another day of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!
A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
We got totally saved by a five run eighth inning from the White Sox on Tuesday, covering the RL and giving us yet another 1-1 day. I feel like I’m chugging along, really liking the plays, but either one play is just dead wrong, or the other one hits with ease, which I certainly won’t complain about. If anything, I’m consistent! Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 for some fun banter and also extra plays on days I don’t write. Below are my MLB betting plays for Thursday, June 10th. Let's make some money and have fun, but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 5-6 (-1.57u)
- O/U Record: 10-10-2 (-0.97u)
- Runline Record: 5-5 (+1.07u)
- First 5 Record: 9-4-3 (+3.53u)
- Prop Record: 2-6-1 (-3.71u)
- 2021 Total Record: 31-31-6 (-1.65u)
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins
O/U: 7.5 | MIA -200 COL +185
Colorado: Chi Chi Gonzalez; Miami: Trevor Rogers
What we see is what we get with Gonzalez and it’s typically not too pretty. A 4.84 ERA over 48.1 IP, a 25/14 K/BB, and an 11 HR/FB% leave much to be desired. Oddly enough, all six home runs allowed have come on the road, away from their launch pad of a home park, and his road ERA is four points higher as a visitor than at home. Offensively, Colorado is naturally awful on the road, averaging just 2.5 runs per game (fewest in MLB). However, they do perform slightly better against LHP, posting a .313 wOBA, 97 wRC+, and a .182 ISO since the beginning of May, but they’ll have their hands full with Rogers.
The youngster, Rogers, has been dynamite for a weak Miami rotation. A sub-2 ERA over 68.2 IP and just three home runs allowed makes him seem like the real deal. The southpaw hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start this year, and while his control can waiver at times (8.8 BB%), his stuff is nasty (31.7 Whiff%). Miami’s lineup has left much to be desired. They average just four runs per game at their large home park, but against RHP at Marlins Park they boast a .323 wOBA and a 115 wRC+ since the beginning of May. Starling Marte is back healthy but they’re still missing some key cogs in the batting order.
We’re betting solely on Rogers here, as I have done before. He’s a real talent. He shuts down Colorado, and the Miami bats get him enough run support to cover the runline.
Pick: Miami -1.5 (+100, BetMGM) 1 Unit
Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
O/U: 9 | TOR -110 CWS +104
Toronto: Hyun Jin Ryu; Chicago: Dallas Keuchel
Ryu hasn’t exactly been on the same scale he was in 2020, with about the same sample, but he’s close. A 3.23 ERA over 64 IP is backed up by a 3.56 xFIP. To this point he’s been tagged a little more on the road, but his metrics are almost identical to his home numbers, so expect some positive regression to come. Offensively, the Blue Jays lineup is slightly above average against LHP, posting a .317 wOBA and a 101 wRC+ since May 1.
Keuchel has been about as middle of the road as they come this season. A 4.25 ERA over 65.2 IP with a 33/19 K/BB certainly leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s also allowed nine home runs now, with four of them coming in the last two starts. He’s having trouble stranding runners (68 LOB%), so he’s incredibly prone to big innings. This is the same White Sox offense that I targeted against a LHP on Tuesday and while they ended up cashing the RL bet, they were totally silenced early on. They still house a .344 wOBA and a 122 wRC+ with a .202 ISO against LHP since the start of May, this is the same lineup that struck out 13 times and scored just once on Robbie Ray on Tuesday.
It’s tough to be skeptical of an offense like the White Sox after just one bad game. They certainly have the talent to tag Ryu here, but the Toronto starter is in much better form (toss out his last start against Houston) of late than Keuchel, so I think the Blue Jays can make quick work of the aging White Sox hurler.
Pick: Toronto First 5 ML (-115, BetMGM) 1 Unit
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