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Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more! We have a short slate on Thursday, with the majority being day games, so be sure to get your bets in or set your lineups early!
A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
Life continues to derail my articles at least once a week, but I’m back following an 0-2 clunker on Tuesday. I started out strong targeting totals, but have taken a slight step back. No reason to worry, as it’s just a small sample. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Thursday, May 6. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 2-4 (-2.25u)
- O/U Record: 8-6-2 (+1.28u)
- Runline Record: 3-4 (-0.6u)
- First 5 Record: 4-4-3 (-.59u)
- Prop Record: 2-4-1 (-1.05u)
- 2021 Total Record: 19-22-6 (-4.49u)
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 7 | MIL -120 PHI +104
Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff; Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler
Woodruff has returned to the form he was on in 2019 before getting hurt. The righty has allowed just four runs in his last five starts with two coming his last time out. He's loved pitching away from American Family Field this year, allowing just one run in 19 IP with a 23/5 K/BB and just a .067 average to opposing hitters. The Brewers' lineup has had their fair share of issues against RHP this season, holding just a .286 wOBA with a 78 wRC+. They get a small boost when on the road, but without Christian Yelich, this offense doesn't have much of an identity.
Wheeler has been consistent, if nothing else, but the Phillies are going to need a little more from the 30-year-old in this division. He's allowed three or more runs in four of his last five starts, but has lasted into the eighth and seventh innings of his last two starts, respectively. His counting home/road splits are about even, but at home he's holding hitters to a .267 wOBA and his 29 K% at home pits him in the top 25 of MLB. Offensively, the Phils have been scoring in bulk of late and have scored at least four runs in all five games in May. They struggle just as much as Milwaukee against RHP, but being at home is an advantage for them, but a .698 OPS and a 92 wOBA hint at some needed improvement.
We have a great NL East matchup here and I think both offenses are going to be held in check. However, Philadelphia's bullpen is awful so I'm keeping it out of their hands. Let's watch the starters work their magic on the afternoon series finale.
Pick: First 5 Under 3.5 (-110, BetMGM) 1 Unit
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
O/U: 9 | ATL -106 WSH -105
Atlanta: Drew Smyly; Washington: Jon Lester
Smyly has arguably been the worst starter in baseball this year, posting an 8.05 ERA over 19 IP (four starts). The southpaw has allowed five runs in each of his last three starts and has given up nine home runs total this season, tied for second most in baseball to this point. Oddly enough, the Braves’ lineup struggles against LHP, posting a .171/.237/.318 slash with a dreadful 52 wRC+. Naturally, Ronald Acuna Jr. isn’t the problem with a .389 average and two homers against lefties, but it’s important to note that Atlanta has the second fewest plate appearances versus LHP this season, so the sample is small.
Thursday marks Lester’s second start since returning from thyroid surgery in March. His first time out, he spun five scoreless frames against Miami; a solid outing. The 37-year-old is as crafty as they come these days, but with a fastball that averages below 90 mph, it’s hard not to imagine MLB hitters seeing beach balls coming towards the plate. The Nationals are the opposite of Atlanta in that they have absolutely mashed LHP this year. Carrying an .826 OPS with a 125 wRC+ versus southpaws, Washington has a lip-licking opportunity facing off with Smyly. Keep in mind, it’s likely that Juan Soto (shoulder) could still sit out Thursday, but Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman have been there to pick up the slack.
This game is juicy, and likely a trap, but I like to overthink myself a bit too much in these scenarios so I always go with my first instinct. We have two very bad pitchers facing off with each other with two offenses that are talented, with Atlanta just waiting to jump off.
Pick: Over 9 (-114, Barstool Sportsbook) 1 Unit
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