RADIO
Wednesday was the most confident I’ve been in picks so far in this early part of the season and we finished 1-1. The Reds made quick work of the Pirates and won easily. The White Sox, despite a great matchup, didn’t take as much of an advantage, registering eight walks and just one hit on the starter, and in turn they only scored four runs in the game, missing the cover by the hook. That’s sports betting. Today is a new day!
I'm Steve Janik and I'm here to bring my insight, analysis and picks to help you make informed betting decisions this season. I've been writing up betting picks for RotoBaller since the 2019 NCAA football season and have covered both football and baseball. I am probably most known around these parts for my wild 2020 KBO gambling success when that was the only sport we had to bet on during the COVID shutdowns. I also handicapped some MLB last season, but it didn't end up very well, going 17-24-2 (-9u). Just like everything else with 2020, we want to put that in the past!
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, while I will be carrying the free picks throughout the season with some help from Jamie Steed. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Thursday, April 8. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 1-1 (-.15u)
O/U Record: 1-1 (-.14u)
Runline Record: 2-0 (+2.3u)
First 5 Record: 1-1-2 (-.1u)
Prop Record: 0-1-1 (-1)
2021 Total Record: 5-4-3 (+.54u)
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
O/U: 9 | CWS -160, KC +135
KC: Brad Keller; CWS: Lance Lynn
Keller got annihilated in his first start, giving up six earned in 1.1 innings against the Texas Rangers. However, the 25-year-old has had a respectable career thus far, but he's certainly not an exciting option. A career 15 K% and 1.46 WHIP on the road, this doesn't set up as a great matchup for the righty. However, his numbers against righties are favorable, including just a 5 BB%. The Royals' lineup has been topsy-turvy; after dropping 25 runs in their first two games, they've scored just eight in the last three. Whit Merrifield is one of the hottest hitters in baseball to start the year, but it will be interesting to see once heavy hitters like Jorge Soler and Carlos Santana join the party.
Lynn will certainly be a tough mound opponent for the Royals. The 33-year-old had a solid season debut against the Angels and now he'll make his home debut for the White Sox. He's always been more dominant against righties, and luckily for him, there's only a handful of left-handed hitters to think about in the Royals' lineup. His lineup behind him is a bit of a question right now. The talent is definitely there, but after scoring 16 runs in the first two games of the Seattle series, they scored just four Wednesday, despite drawing 10 walks in the game.
I'm thinking the pitchers take precedent in this one. Keller has been stellar when facing the opposing lineup the first two times, hosting a 3.29 and 2.80 ERA, respectively. Sure, he struggles on the road, but he minimizes hard contact and keeps the ball in the yard. Lynn is the all-around better pitcher and has pretty similar numbers his first two times through the order.
Pick: First 5 Under 5 (-115, BetMGM) 1 Unit
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
O/U: 8 | MIL -136, STL +116
MIL: Corbin Burnes; STL: Adam Wainwright
Burnes had a masterful debut, surrendering just one run and one hit, a solo homer, to the Twins while striking out 11. That’s a nice start to hopefully a big season for the 26-year-old. The right-hander has had solid success on the road over his career, posting a 4.13 ERA and 30 K%, but the important number is that his HR/FB% is seven points lower on the road than at Miller Park. The Brewers’ lineup is waiting for guys like Keston Hiura and Christian Yelich to join the party, as both have provided minimal support thus far. They struggled against RHP on the road last year, but they did score eight runs over their last two road games with the Cubs prior to this series.
Wainwright is one of baseball’s ageless wonders. At 39, he’s been doing this for a long time, but that time might be coming up here soon. In his debut Saturday against the Reds, he went just 2.2 innings while giving up six runs on six hits, including a home run. He’ll return back home Thursday, where he’s naturally more comfortable, holding down a 2.86 ERA over his 16-year career. The Cards’ lineup just put up 15 runs in a three-game road sweep of the Marlins, so they’re feeling good. However, the last two seasons at home, St. Louis hitters have put up no higher than a .317 wOBA or .150 ISO as a team, so there is certainly some vulnerability here.
We’ll have a youth versus veteran matchup on the mound, and in most cases you’d think to side with the vet at home, but I don’t see that the case here. Burnes is one of the more underrated arms across the National League. I’m also betting on Hiura and Yelich to put it together at the plate and bust open to get Burnes some run support.
Pick: Milwaukee -1 (-103, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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