RADIO
Frank Ammirante here, filling in for Steve Janik today, ready to give you some winners. I've been as cold as ice with my betting picks, but all that means is that the hot streak is coming. What better day to start off my positive regression than on this lovely Thursday with a 12-game slate on tap.
Like Steve Janik, I'm not a professional handicapper, but I believe that I have the skills to become one. I also enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I'll be using Bet365 for my picks. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, while Steve Janik will be carrying the free picks throughout the season with some help from Jamie Steed and myself. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Thursday, April 15. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 14-17 (-2.3u)
Runline Record: 0-2 (-2.35u)
O/U Record: 5-11-1 (-7.4u)
Team Total Record: 1-5 (-5u)
Prop Record: 12-9 (+1.8u)
2021 Total Record: 32-44-1 (-15.25u)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
O/U: 8.5 | ARI +155 WAS -175
Arizona: Merrill Kelly; Washington: Patrick Corbin
Patrick Corbin is in a terrific bounce-back spot after a poor season debut against the Dodgers where he gave up six runs in 4.1 innings. This was his first start since coming off the COVID-19 reserve list, so we can give him a mulligan against one of the best lineups in baseball. It's also worth noting that five of the six runs came in the second inning. After that, Corbin settled in and went 2.1 innings, allowing three hits with zero walks and striking out four. I expect Corbin to get back on track against a D-Backs lineup without Ketel Marte.
While Arizona has actually done pretty well against lefties this season, posting a 120 wRC+ (T-10th) and 21.3 K% (8th), this is not a lineup to fear and I think Corbin will pitch deep into this game. Corbin went 80 pitches in his debut, so we can project an increase in this one. This is a veteran pitcher who has posted a 28.5% strikeout rate back in 2019. We're getting a low number on the strikeout total (5.5) in a game that I expect Corbin to dominate.
Pick: Patrick Corbin OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-120, Bet365) 1 Unit
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U: 7.5 | COL +220 LAD -270
Colorado: Austin Gomber; Los Angeles: Julio Urias
The Rockies' offense is as cold as can be, scoring only six runs in their current five-game losing streak on this road trip. They'll be facing lefty Julio Urias, who pitched seven strong innings against them earlier in the year, a game where he allowed only one run on three hits, walking one and striking out six. The Rockies have posted an 87 wRC+ (25th) and .151 ISO (19th) against southpaws. Urias does a great job generating weak contact, posting hard-hit rates of 28.6% and 24.9% in the last two seasons.
The Rockies will turn to lefty Austin Gomber, who has struggled with control in his first two starts, allowing 11 walks in 9.1 innings. The good news is that he's been tough to hit, allowing only two hits during that span and grading in the 92nd-percentile in hard-hit rate and 91st-percentile in expected slugging percentage. The Dodgers have put up a 109 wRC+ (17th) and .130 ISO (24th) against lefties this season, so Gomber can have some success if he can find his control tonight.
Dodgers games have combined for seven runs or less in six of their last seven games, while Rockies games have gone under this number in five straight. I expect this to be another low-scoring affair with Gomber doing his job to keep the total under the number.
Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-105, Bet365) 1 Unit
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