RADIO
My first Saturday deputizing for Steve went so-so with one winner from three. Chris Flexen looked like the KBO version of himself rather than his old MLB version and the Brewers were on the losers in the best pitching dual of the season so far between Corbin Burnes and Jose Berrios. That's why we're treading carefully to start the year and keeping the outlay down.
Like with my soccer articles, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag Steve's numbers down.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, Steve will be carrying the free picks on weekdays throughout the season with some help from yours truly. Early on in the season, our plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-0.5 U)
O/U Record: 0-1 (-1.0 U)
Runline Record: 0-0
Prop Record: 1-0 (+0.45 U)
2021 Total Record: 1-2 (-1.05 U)
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: COL +155, SFG -175
COL: Chi Chi Gonzalez; SFG: Logan Webb
The Rockies first road trip of the year will give us a good idea of where their offense is. Through seven games at home this season, they ranked top-5 in runs scored with 44 but struggled in game one of the series on Friday, scoring just once. Johnny Cueto flirted with a no-hitter and nearly got the complete-game shutout as he held the Rockies scoreless through eight innings. Despite their usual offensive prowess at home, the Rockies best two hitters over the last few years (Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story) combined for just 11 hits in 54 at-bats in their opening homestand and went 1 for 7 on Friday.
The Giants offense hasn't got going yet, scoring just 26 runs in their first eight games of the season and were shutout through six innings on Friday by Austin Gomber. They have hit 11 home runs this year (tied-5th) but as a team, they're only hitting .198 (ranks 26th). Jake McGee only threw three pitches to get the final out on Friday and with a day off Thursday, the bullpen will be well-rested for the weekend.
Neither offense fills me with confidence but both teams' starting pitchers have a career ERA north of 5.00. The difference being, Webb also has a career 4.26 xFIP and 4.62 SIERA while Gonzalez's career xFIP is 5.40 and SIERA is 5.66. The Rockies bullpen had an ERA of 5.79 (7th worse) before Friday and allowed two inherited runners to score on yesterday to break the 0-0 tie game before giving up another run in the 3-1 defeat. The Giants have the better starter and better bullpen while the two teams' offense is pretty much a wash right now without the assistance of Coors Field. I think the under will hit but I see a path where the Giants score runs early, chase Gonzalez out the game and the Rockies bullpen gets expose for 5+ innings.
Pick: Run line - San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+120) 0.5 Units
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PHI +120, ATL -130
PHI: Zach Eflin; ATL: Ian Anderson
This one needs less analysis than the first game, but you're still getting it. Both pitchers faced off last Sunday and were dominant, with the Phillies edging a 2-1 win. Eflin went 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB with 8 K. Anderson went 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB with 7 K. Although the Braves bullpen ultimately gave up the only other run scored last Sunday, their collective ERA is 1.99 (2nd best) while the Phillies bullpen has been improved so far this year with an ERA of 3.91 (15th best). That's despite being responsible for five runs (3 earned) in the Braves 8-1 win in game 1 of the series.
Neither teams' offense has really got going yet which may be a surprise, given on paper it should be a strength of both ball clubs. The Braves managed just 17 runs (3rd fewest) in seven games heading into this weekend series so their eight runs scored last night could be the beginning of them finding some form. Only the Mets and Nationals had scored fewer runs prior to Friday which is unsurprising given their opening series was postponed. The Phillies have fared a bit better with 27 runs in their first six games (17th most) although they only managed to score nine runs in their three-game series with the Braves to start the season and only one run scored last night.
It can be a bit tricky for the starting pitchers to face the same opponent in back-to-back starts, but these are two of the best starting pitchers in the NL East and both are backed up by solid bullpens so I expect the recent trend of low-scoring games between them to continue here. Even last night's Braves breakout only led to a total of nine runs.
Pick: Over/Under - Under 8.5 runs (-114) 1 Unit
Prop Bet
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
Yusei Kikuchi struck out 10 batters in his season debut against the Giants and increased his strikeout rate (K%) to 24.2% last year. Last year's increased fastball velocity has been maintained this year and his deep pitch repertoire supports it well. The Twins 29.0 K% this year is tied for fifth-highest and they've tallied 84 strikeouts in seven games to start the year (average of 12 per game). Granted, they had to face the Brewers (Corbin Burnes in particular) but their strikeout splits are almost identical versus left-handed (29.1% K%) and right-handed pitching (28.9% K%). The only thing which could halt Kikuchi's strikeout numbers is a short start if he gets hit hard and while possible, of the Twins 46 runs scored, 15 came against the Tigers (starting Jose Urena) so they haven't consistently scored plenty of runs.
Pick: Kikuchi over 5.5 strikeouts (+103) 0.5 Units
