RADIO
After a big Friday last week going 3-for-3 in the match picks, we followed that up on Saturday going 2-for-2 with a voided game also. It was a "double your money" day with both winners coming in at +100 as the Reds easily covered the runline, beating the Pirates 11-3 while the Dodgers and Angels just about hit the under 8.5 run total with the Dodgers running out 5-3 winners. The Padres versus Diamondbacks was the voided bet as they matched the over/under of eight runs.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Daily articles covering a range of picks are available and you can always hit up any of the team on Twitter (@BellRoto, @stevejanik6, @LucidMediaDFS, @kipppsta, @MarkStrausberg, @Mark_Kieffer, @ThunderDanDFS and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo). Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 6-9 (-3.60 U)
- O/U Record: 11-13-2 (-1.55 U)
- Runline Record: 4-6 (+1.65 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 6-13 (-5.37 U)
- Prop Record: 18-17 (+1.23 U)
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: ATL -145, WSH +125
ATL: Charlie Morton | WSH: Josiah Gray
The Nationals haven't officially declared a starter for tonight but the expectation is that Gray will take the mound after not starting in their series with the Mets.
The Nationals are 2-9 this month and have just been swept by a struggling Mets team in a rain-affected series. They lost the series with the Braves last weekend 2-1 but only lost one of the games by more than one run. That's been a theme recently as five of their nine losses this month have been by the odd run.
The Braves found themselves in first place of the NL East briefly but a 12-3 loss to the Reds yesterday has seen them drop to third again. They are 7-3 this month and 15-11 since the All-Star Break but only four of those losses have been by more than one run so we should expect a close game here.
Neither team's offense has been very productive this month with the Braves 86 wRC+ ranking tied-22nd and the Nationals 93 wRC+ ranking 19th. They both rank outside the top-15 in ISO and wOBA as well this month, which is indicative of their close games.
Morton continues to defy his age and at 37-years-old is having another terrific season with a 3.56 ERA in 23 starts (128.0 IP). His xERA and xFIP are both 3.49 so support his success and has a 3.05 ERA since July 01st. His previous start came against the Nationals last weekend going six innings without allowing a run.
Gray was a headline acquisition by the Nationals and has impressed in his two starts for the Nationals. Both outings lasted five innings and he allowed just one earned run in each, including his start against the Braves last weekend. He also struck out ten Braves batters but has allowed six homers in 18.0 IP this year.
Providing Gray starts, I expect a low-scoring affair but feel the Braves have the better offense and bullpen. The Nationals bullpen ERA in August is 5.54 which is 25th in MLB. The Braves bullpen ERA is 4.20 this month (tied-19th). Given Gray is unlikely to go more than five innings, they will need to lean on that bullpen which could be a problem.
Pick: Runline - Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+115) 1.5 Units
Pick: Total runs - Under 9 (-115) 1 Unit
Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CLE -125, DET +105
CLE: Zach Plesac | DET: Tyler Alexander
The Tigers come into this divisional series in second place in the AL Central and have a 7-3 record in their last ten games after completing a three-game series sweep of the Orioles yesterday. The Indians are 3-7 in their last ten games and that includes a 2-1 series win against the Tigers last weekend. They come into this after losing in a 17-0 hammering by the Athletics which saw them swept in the three-game series while being outscored 27-6.
The Tigers have a 100 wRC+ this month (18th) so have been a league-average offense and the Indians 83 wRC+ this month ranks 24th. The Tigers also outpace the Indians in ISO (.174 to .133) and wOBA (.317 to .294). The Tigers are averaging 4.7 runs scored in August while the Indians average 3.58 per game.
Both starters featured in the weekend series last week but didn't start the same game. Plesac allowed four earned runs in four innings against the Tigers and since returning from the IL in July, he has an ERA of 6.16 from six starts (30.2 IP). After five of his ten starts pre-injury were quality starts, only one of his six post-injury has been a quality start.
Alexander is making his eighth start of the season after transitioning from the bullpen, with his last start (5.1 IP) being his longest. That came against the Indians and he didn't allow a run while giving up just four hits and no walks. Since joining the rotation full-time in July, Alexander has a 4.43 ERA but a 5.91 xFIP from six starts (20.1 IP).
Neither offense fills me with much confidence but the Tigers have been decent this month and Plesac hasn't looked good since his injury. Alexander has fared well in the rotation but his underlying numbers suggest regression is coming so the over looks appealing but I'll also be backing the underdogs to win this one.
Pick: Total runs - Over 9 (+100) 1 Unit
Pick: Moneyline - Detroit Tigers (+105) 1 Unit
Prop Bets
St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals
Last weekend, Mike Minor faced the Cardinals and struck out seven in just five innings while allowing four runs. In his previous two starts, Minor struck out six in seven innings (against the Blue Jays) and seven in six innings (against the White Sox).
Minor doesn't have the luxury of facing the opposing pitcher being at home this time but he only struck out Adam Wainwright once last week with the other six all being offensive players. The Cardinals have the fifth-highest K% against left-handed pitching (LHP) this month at 25.4% and fourth-worst since the All-Star Break (25.3%).
Pick: Mike Minor over 5.5 Ks (+100) 1 Unit
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