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Welcome back, RotoBallers! Apologies for the lack of articles the past couple of days. Steve and I have had some trouble getting lines early enough to be able to get an article out to you all. That's been fixed today, so here we are! I've gotten back on track in a big way on Friday and Saturday, going 7-1 combined and +5.57 units in that span. Let's hope we can keep the train rolling for ya'll, though I don't see much I love early on this beautiful Sunday.
As I'm sure you already know know, Steve Janik and I will be sharing the duties of writing up an MLB Betting article every day of the week! All season long we'll be supplying you MLB betting articles with a few of our favorite picks for the day in baseball. Along with the picks, we'll give a little write-up with some supporting evidence for the picks, and we'll keep track of our records throughout the course of the season. You can always find my updated picks for the day as well as my running tally @BellRoto on Twitter. I'll also do my best to continue posting my picks there on my "Off Days" for this series.
- Saturday, August 29: 4-1
- 2020 Season Total: 77-61
Without further ado, let's get to the picks for today's slate. Please make sure to follow me on Twitter @BellRoto, as I'll post any updates and/or additions to these picks there throughout the day. I'll also field any questions or comments on Twitter as well as in our Premium RotoBaller Slack Chat under the Sports Betting channel. Here we go!
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Minnesota Twins (-215) at Detroit Tigers
O/U: 8.5
MIN: Kenta Maeda, DET: Casey Mize
The first two picks of the day are first five unders, one because they stood out as good value, but also because there wasn't a whole lot I liked when it came to analyze full game lines. Check out Twitter @BellRoto to see if I add any more later on!
This first game should go to the Twins easily, but I also think the young prospect Mize comes into his own a bit against a formidable Minnesota lineup. The first five run line is 4.5, and if we project the Tigers to score 1 or 0 against Maeda in that span, then Mize just has to put together a quality start for this bet to hit.
Pick: First Five Under 4.5 runs (-105) 1 Unit
San Diego Padres (-157) at Colorado Rockies
O/U: 13
SD: Chris Paddack, COL: Ryan Castellani
I understand this is Coors Field in the day time, but this is a HIGH five run total at 7.5 runs, especially when we consider how dominate Paddack can be on any given day. Now, he's never pitched in Colorado before, so maybe it will take some adjusting, and this line will get crushed. But I'm going to bank on him putting together a solid five innings, and as long as the Padres don't score more than one run an inning for the first five, we should be safe here. I don't feel amazing about it though, if we're being honest.
Pick: First Five Under 7.5 (-125) 1 Unit
Cleveland Indians (-126) at St. Louis Cardinals
O/U: 8
CLE: Aaron Civale, STL: Adam Wainwright
I like the Indians lineup more from top to bottom, and Aaron Civale is the better pitcher at this point in his career. There is just enough home run upside for the Cards that I don't want to make this a two-unit bet, but if I had to pick one, this would be it. The Indians look like a true contender from their lineup to their starters to their bullpen. Unless the old Wainwright shows up, I think the Cleveland ML is pretty safe on Sunday.
Pick: Indians ML (-126) 1 Unit
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