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Baseball games (that count) begin in only one month with the Tokyo series with the official MLB opening day not long after.
They say hope springs eternal for every team when a new season opens, but realistically, some teams have higher expectations than others. Vegas attempts to recalibrate those expectations by setting a win total for every team and taking bets on the over and the under.
In this article, I'll make a case for some of my favorite bets on MLB team win totals for the coming season. If you love a certain pick (or hate it,) feel free to let me hear about them on X @ThunderDanDFS.
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Team Win Totals - MLB Futures Betting Picks
The only column here that might need some further explanation is "2024 Pythagorean Wins." That number is calculated using each team's runs scored and runs allowed. Teams with larger +/- run differentials should, in theory, win more or fewer games.
The "Luck" category is simply the number of wins that each team should (or shouldn't) have had based on their Pythagorean win total. So the White Sox were the unluckiest team, winning seven fewer games than they probably should have, while the Cardinals were the luckiest - outperforming their Pythagorean win total by seven wins.
The final column highlights some of the biggest disparities between the 2024 win totals and the Vegas line currently set for each team in 2025. The Brewers and Guardians (two division winners) are projected to lose nearly 10 more games this season, while the White Sox (12.5), Angels (8.5), and Rangers (7.5) are projected to see the biggest increases in their win totals.
Take the Over! Teams to Exceed Their Win Totals in 2025
Cincinnati Reds OVER 78.5 wins (-110)
Key Additions: Matt McLain (INJ), Nick Lodolo (INJ), Gavin Lux, Brady Singer
Key Losses: Jonathan India, Ty France
Another #MLB win total. How about...
The Cincinnati Reds! 2024 wins = 77
2025 win total...
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) February 17, 2025
The Reds underachieved last year, and there's no doubt about it. In their defense, they suffered injuries to at least a half-dozen starters either in the lineup or rotation, and they were an incredibly young team, too. They were one of the most "unlucky" teams based on Pythagorean win totals and they simply couldn't get everyone healthy and productive at the same time all season.
But this team is loaded with talent. Elly De La Cruz is a dynamo, and a healthy Matt McLain hitting behind him will be an elite one-two punch, with both players being legit five-tool players. TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley rake against righties, while Spencer Steer and Tyler Stephenson smash lefties.
Gavin Lux comes over from the Dodgers to replace Jonathan India and Austin Hays adds some much-needed depth and another righty bat in the lineup. This lineup is deep, especially when you consider that Noelvi Marte and Will Benson are uber-talented and likely starting at AAA, too.
"I'm in a great spot." Reds starter Nick Lodolo is in the best shape of his career: https://t.co/UyYfiTcaFk via @enquirer
— Pat Brennan (@PBrennanENQ) February 16, 2025
The return of a healthy Nick Lodolo to the rotation could give the Reds a deadly one-two combo, with Hunter Greene beginning to establish himself as an ace. Brady Singer is a solid number three, and it's probably only a matter of time until their top pitching prospect, Rhett Lowder, joins the mix.
This is one of my favorite overs, as this team stands out as an obvious choice for improvement this year as long as they have to deal with as many obstacles as they did last year. The odds are that they won't, and they have enough talent to compete for the NL Central crown.
Cleveland Guardians OVER 82.5 wins (-105)
Key Additions: Carlos Santana, Luis L. Ortiz, Shane Bieber (INJ), Paul Sewald
Key Losses: Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez, Matthew Boyd
And what about the Cleveland Guardians?
Won 92 games in 2024...
2025 win total?
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) February 17, 2025
Wow, the disrespect being shown to the Guardians is pretty significant. And listen, up to a point, I get it because most people believed they overachieved in a big way last year. And while that might be true to an extent, their Pythagorean record was only two games worse than their actual record. So, even if we knock them back to 90 wins last season, is this team going to be eight games worse this year?
The departures of Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez could sting a bit, but this is an offense that relies on contact and not power anyway. Carlos Santana, even in his late-30s, can replace most of what Naylor supplied, and Cleveland will find a way to score runs one way or another. Jose Ramirez remains one of the best hitters in baseball, and he's still in his prime.
Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel might be the best young power-hitting platoon in the AL, and Jonathan Rodriguez has some sneaky breakout appeal.
Pitching is usually how the Guardians win and they could get their former ace Shane Bieber back sooner than later. Whether or not he can revert to his Cy Young-caliber form remains to be seen.
Tanner Bibee is emerging as a very good arm, and Gavin Williams is a major post-hype sleeper with some of the best stuff you'll see. The Guardians bullpen is lights out, too, with Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith set to return as the closer and setup man.
You can't quantify managers with WAR, but I think Stephen Vogt is a pretty darn good one, and he's going to get the most out of his guys. This team should compete for the division, and I like them to cruise over 83 wins in the process.
Kansas City Royals OVER 83.5 wins (-110)
Key Additions: Jonathan India, Carlos Estevez
Key Losses: Brady Singer
Kansas City Royals #MLB
Won 86 games last season...
2025 win total...
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) February 17, 2025
The Royals were one of the most unlucky teams in terms of wins last year, as they won 86 games compared to their 91-win Pythagorean total. It was a hugely successful season for Kansas City compared to 2023, when they won just 56 games.
I suppose the conventional wisdom here is that they overperformed last year, and without any big splashy acquisitions, they are likely to regress a bit in 2025. However, I'm looking at it from the opposite perspective. This is a relatively young team on offense, with Salvador Perez and Hunter Renfroe being the only hitters over the age of 30.
Bobby Witt Jr. is a legitimate MVP candidate and we could still see improvement from Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, and MJ Melendez.
This pitching staff is better than you think, even if they lack any big names other than ace (and Cy Young contender) Cole Ragans. Michael Lorenzen might be the weak link here, but Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are solid veterans who eat innings.
Kris Bubic is a breakout candidate championed by my good friend and baseball whiz Corbin Young. And the Royals still have Alec Marsh and Daniel Lynch for rotation depth at Triple-A.
I'm not sleeping on the Royals, and I think they could easily repeat last year's performance or even improve on their 86-win season.
Milwaukee Brewers OVER 83.5 wins (+100)
Key Additions: Nestor Cortes, Brandon Woodruff (INJ)
Key Losses: Willy Adames, Frankie Montas
The Milwaukee Brewers won 93 games in 2024 and the NL Central Division #MLB
Their 2025 win total will be...
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) February 17, 2025
The Brew Crew, much like the Guardians, have bettors very skeptical about their chances of repeating last year's success. Yes, they did lose one of their best hitters, with Willy Adames leaving for San Francisco in free agency, but they also have one of the most exciting young hitters in baseball back in Jackson Chourio.
Jackson Chourio's rookie campaign:
.275/.327/.464
21 HR
79 RBI
22 SB
29 2BYoungest player in MLB history with a 20/20 season. pic.twitter.com/hxKNLjclmn
— StatMuse Baseball (@statmusemlb) February 16, 2025
Christian Yelich is still very good as long as he can stay healthy, and William Contreras is probably the best-hitting catcher in baseball. The rest of the lineup isn't filled with sexy names, but there are some good young hitters there and another solid veteran presence in Rhys Hoskins.
If Brandon Woodruff returns to even 80% of his pre-injury form, he'll form a solid trio in the rotation with Freddy Peralta and the newly acquired Nestor Cortes.
The Brewers are a lot like the Guardians in that they don't have big names in their lineup but are well-coached and have solid organizational depth that they can use to survive the war of attrition that is a full baseball season. We are getting even money here on them to win 84 games!
Take the Under! Teams to Fall Short of Their 2025 Win Totals
Chicago White Sox UNDER 53.5 wins (-110)
Key Additions: Mike Tauchman, Josh Rojas, Austin Slater, Michael A. Taylor, Martin Perez, Bryse Wilson, Joey Gallo, Bobby Dalbec
Key Losses: Garrett Crochet, Gavin Sheets, Eloy Jimenez
#MLB Win Totals - whatcha think?
Chicago White Sox - won only 41 games in 2024.
2025 win total...
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) February 17, 2025
If you read the "key additions" above and snickered a bit, then congrats, you got the joke. Do any of those names look like difference-makers to you? I mean, I like Mike Tauchman as much as the next guy, but c'mon it's a bunch of retreads, has-beens, and platoon players!
Yet, their roster is probably better than last year's, which just shows you how bad they were. Now, I know the Pythagorean win total shows they were very unlucky, but even if we spot them those seven extra wins, they still only would have won 48 games last year.
Do we really think they are 13 wins better this season? Every other team in their division had a winning record last year, and they don't exactly have much in the minor league pipeline, either. It should be another long season in Chicago for the Sox, and I'm banking on them staying under 53.5 wins.
Los Angeles Angels UNDER 71.5 wins (+100)
Key Additions: Mike Trout (INJ), Yusei Kikuchi, Kenley Jansen, Jorge Soler
Key Losses: Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Carlos Estevez
Los Angeles Angels #MLB
2024 win total = 63 games
2025 win total...
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) February 17, 2025
The Angels were not unlucky last year; they were just plain bad. They did bring in some help with Kikuchi as a legit starter and Jansen as a legit closer, but their only big bat other than Trout is an aging Jorge Soler. And we haven't seen Trout stay healthy for a full season in...well, a very long time.
They can certainly improve on 63 wins, but I think a 9-game improvement is asking a bit much for this team. This roster has major holes that can't be filled by signing a few veteran free agents. Again, we are getting plus money on this bet for them to stay under, so I love the odds here, and I'm banking on another bad year from the Halos.
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