X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Batted Ball Data Analysis - How Consistent Are GB%, LD%, and FB% Year To Year

Bryce Harper - Philadelphia Phillies

Jon looks at launch angle and MLB batted ball type trends for 2022 fantasy baseball. How consistent are GB%, LD%, and FB% year to year, and can we trust them?

When we are evaluating hitters, we talk a lot about batted ball profile. When we're talking about this, things like launch angle and ground ball rate are cited quite often. I wanted to make a post to go over these things a bit more in-depth, giving our readers more complete knowledge of the subject at hand.

I also want to investigate whether GB%, LD%, and FB% are something you can count on year-over-year. We often say things like "well his homer ceiling is capped because of the high ground-ball rate," but is that a responsible thing to say?

Does the fact that a player had a high ground-ball rate last year suggest he'll do the same again this year? Stay tuned to find out!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Batted Ball Types Defined

You will see different sites give you different numbers for GB%, LD%, FB%, and PU% (pop-ups, sometimes referred to as infield fly ball rate). In fact, these numbers can be starkly different between FanGraphs and Baseball Savant. FanGraphs breaks down these categories here, which is very interesting to read. They admit that the classification may be quite arbitrary, and we should be careful with interpreting that data because of it. That is very honest of them and very true.

This is a complex thing we are trying to put in simple terms. I'm not sure exactly how FanGraphs does the classification, but I can tell pretty much how Baseball Savant does it from doing some coding on the pitch-by-pitch dataset that shows the classification. I will be using Baseball Savant's version of things from here on.

Launch angle is not the only thing that goes into classifying a ball into one of these categories, launch velocity factors in as well. Here's a plot that shows how the classifications break down by launch angle, you'll see some overlap between the categories:

If we have to bin these into angle ranges, this is what I would say:

Ground balls: Below 5 degrees
Line drives: Between 5 degrees and 25 degrees
Fly balls: Between 25 degrees and 50 degrees
Pop-ups: Above 50 degrees  

We also talk about barrel rate a lot. It's worthwhile to note that in 2021, 75% of barrels were classified as fly-balls with the rest of the 25% being line drives. The minimum launch angle for a barrel last year was seven degrees (hit by Giancarlo Stanton at 120.1 miles per hour), and the maximum angle for a barrel was 48 degrees (hit by Mike Zunino at 111 miles per hour).

Here's a table of HR, AVG, and SLG for each batted ball type from 2021.

BB Type HR AVG SLG
GB 0 .241 .266
LD 602 .636 .904
FB 5,342 .281 .877
Pop 0 .017 .019

So, a high LD% should lend itself to a higher batting average and a higher slugging percentage (most doubles and triples come from line drives), and a high FB% will lead to higher home run counts. Ground balls can result in decent batting averages as well if the guy hitting the grounders has a lot of speed to leg out infield singles, but they will very rarely result in extra bases (as evidenced by the AVG and SLG being very close there). You don't want slow guys hitting ground balls, and you don't really want weak guys hitting fly-balls.

To demonstrate this, let's take the case of two extremes: Giancarlo Stanton and David Fletcher.

Giancarlo Stanton

BB Type HR AVG SLG
GB 0 .302 .321
LD 13 .762 1.381
FB 22 .321 1.172
Pop 0 .000 .000

David Fletcher

BB Type HR AVG SLG
GB 0 .267 .289
LD 1 .490 .652
FB 2 .141 .228
Pop 0 .024 .024

You can see the big difference in fly balls there. Stanton got a high batting average and a high slugging out of his fly balls, while Fletcher hit just .141 and slugged .228 when hitting the ball in the air. This just goes to show that not all fly ball rates (and ground ball rates and line-drive rates) are created equal - so you have to keep in mind the whole picture when looking at it.

 

Year-Over-Year Analysis

The question I wanted to answer was this: how consistent are these GB%, LD%, and FB% statistics? Can we count on a player that has a high FB% in 2021 to do that again in 2022?

The way I went about answering this was by compiling a list of all players with at least 100 plate appearances in each of the last five seasons and then finding their numbers for all of these categories. I then lined them up in Excel in a way where I could check standard deviations and correlations. I compared each year in the sample to the rest of the years in the sample to see if there were correlations and, if so, where those correlations lie.

The relationships will be represented by a correlation coefficient, a number between zero and one. The closer the number is to one, the stronger the correlation. The closer the number is to zero, the weaker the correlation. Anything below 0.5 can be considered a weak relationship, and anything below 0.3 should be looked at as basically no relationship. Here are the results:

Ground Ball Rate

Line Drive Rate

Fly Ball Rate

We find three major things here.

#1 GB% rate is the only one with a strong relationship.

You see all the values being above 0.67, showing that one year does quite a bit of work in predicting future years. You see much lower numbers with line-drive rate and fly-ball rate, and the line-drive rate seems to be pretty much wholly explained by randomness. This makes intuitive sense given that the angle range of a line drive is much smaller than the range for ground-balls and fly-balls.

#2 Consecutive full seasons have much stronger relationships.

You can see that most of the highest numbers there come between two years that are right next to each other. This also makes perfect sense just because of the way time works. Think about yourself. You are probably more like your 2021 than your 2017 self as you sit here reading this today. We should take last year much more seriously than 2019 or 2020.

#3 The 2020 season is not to be trusted

That 2020 season is a complicating factor in all analysis like the one we're doing here. Hitters played 60 games max (I don't include playoff data in these studies), which made that season much more ruled by randomness and variance. You see that exemplified by the weak relationships between 2020 and its adjacent years.

 

Takeaways and Data

Focus on ground-ball rate. This statistic is pretty steady year-to-year. There are exceptions (George Springer's line the last five years: 48%, 50%, 45%, 36%, 33%), but in general, it's safe to assume that a player's 2022 GB% will be pretty close to his mark for 2021, given you are looking at a full season's worth of at-bats.

I figured I'd share some data to finish this up. What you see below is a table of all hitters that have had 100+ PAs in each of the last five seasons with their ground-ball rates shown. The last column is standard deviation, which is a measure of the spread of a list of numbers. The higher that number is, the more variance there has been in the player's ground-ball rates and vice versa. The aforementioned Springer has the highest standard deviation, while Bryce Harper has the lowest as he has been insanely consistent in this category (41%, 41%, 40%, 40%, 42%).

 

Conclusion

  • GB% is pretty steady year-over-year, so you can feel safe in checking a player's 2021 GB% to gain insights about 2022. This isn't as true with FB%, and it's not true at all with LD%.
  • Home runs come from fly-balls (75%) and line drives (25%). If you are fishing for a home run hitter - focus on players with low ground-ball rates. The average GB% last year was 42%, with the lowest players being in the low thirties. Anything under 38% gives you a shot at bloated home run totals.
  • High rates of ground-balls can be good for batting average if a player is fast. If you are trying to bolster your fantasy team's batting average, finding a cheap, speedy ground-ball hitter is a good thing to try.
  • Don't trust 2020 data for anything, and don't worry much about what happened with a given player 3+ years ago. Unfortunately for this year, that pretty much means focusing solely on 2021 data since 2020 was so random with the 60-game schedule, and 2019 is now too far away to put a ton of trust in.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jeff McNeil14 mins ago

Could Come Off Injured List On Friday
Quinn Mathews25 mins ago

Set To Start Throwing Program
Francisco Alvarez26 mins ago

Could Return On Friday
Cristopher Sánchez32 mins ago

Cristopher Sanchez Feeling Good, No Plans For MRI Exam
Bryson Stott37 mins ago

Out Against Southpaw On Wednesday
Jac Caglianone39 mins ago

Posts Third Straight Multi-Hit Game
Emmanuel Clase43 mins ago

Dealing With Shoulder Discomfort
Nick Nastrini46 mins ago

Rebounds In Latest Outing
Agustín Ramírez49 mins ago

Agustin Ramirez Sitting Out After Hot Start
Kerry Carpenter55 mins ago

Sitting Out Of Series Finale Against Padres
Alex Pham58 mins ago

Strikes Out 11 On Tuesday
Brendan Donovan1 hour ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Michael McGreevy1 hour ago

Picks Up Third Victory Of The Season
Demetrio Crisantes1 hour ago

Busy On Tuesday
Ranger Suárez3 hours ago

Ranger Suarez Cruises Through Third Rehab Start
Jaren Jackson Jr.3 hours ago

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Triston Casas3 hours ago

Connects On Second Round-Tripper
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander3 hours ago

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman3 hours ago

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam3 hours ago

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo4 hours ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Josh Smith4 hours ago

Stays Hot With Second Home Run
Lee Hodges4 hours ago

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA4 hours ago

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle4 hours ago

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland4 hours ago

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Brent Rooker4 hours ago

Pops Seventh Homer
Luka Dončić4 hours ago

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy4 hours ago

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard4 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Jock Landale4 hours ago

Unavailable For Game 2
Sam Stevens4 hours ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
MLB4 hours ago

Luis Urías Continues To Produce In A’s Loss
Jae'Sean Tate4 hours ago

Remains Out Wednesday
Nicolai Hojgaard4 hours ago

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares4 hours ago

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout4 hours ago

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen4 hours ago

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Lawrence Butler4 hours ago

Homers In A’s Loss To Rangers
Akshay Bhatia4 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young4 hours ago

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov4 hours ago

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk5 hours ago

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Tommy Edman5 hours ago

Homers In Tuesday’s Extra-Inning Loss To Cubs
Erik Van Rooyen5 hours ago

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli5 hours ago

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi5 hours ago

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
John Klingberg5 hours ago

Ready To Return To Action
Evander Kane5 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Game 2
Michael Pittman Jr.13 hours ago

Back Injury Is In The Past
George Pickens13 hours ago

Steelers Appear Unlikely To Trade George Pickens
Jaylen Warren13 hours ago

Steelers Believe Jaylen Warren Can Be Their RB1
Andrew Novak14 hours ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin15 hours ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore16 hours ago

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark16 hours ago

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama16 hours ago

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa17 hours ago

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Jaylen Warren17 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Steelers
Will Levis18 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Traded
Houston Texans18 hours ago

Texans Considering Trading Up
Cleveland Browns18 hours ago

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah Appears At Offseason Program
Thomas Detry18 hours ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Christian McCaffrey19 hours ago

Has No Restrictions
Terry Rozier19 hours ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Damian Lillard19 hours ago

Will Have His Minutes Monitored Tuesday
Jayson Tatum19 hours ago

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Robert MacIntyre19 hours ago

Returns To Zurich Classic With High Hopes
Derek Forbort19 hours ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry19 hours ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Shane Lowry19 hours ago

Returning To Zurich Classic With Red-Hot Teammate
Luke Glendening19 hours ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee19 hours ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass20 hours ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon20 hours ago

Won't Play In Game 2
Luke Hughes20 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Matthew Tkachuk20 hours ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
Damian Lillard21 hours ago

Cleared To Play Tuesday
Brock Purdy22 hours ago

Reports For OTA's Amid Contract Discussions
George Kittle22 hours ago

Skips Start Of 49ers Offseason Program
Dallas Cowboys22 hours ago

Stephon Gilmore Spotted At Cowboys Facility On Tuesday
James Cook22 hours ago

Not At Start Of Voluntary OTAs
Kirk Cousins22 hours ago

Reports To Voluntary OTA's
Cam Ward22 hours ago

Titans Officially Staying Put At No. 1 Overall Pick, Expected To Select Cam Ward
23 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty's Tackle-Breaking Ability Sets Him Apart
23 hours ago

Jalen Milroe Not A Lock To Go In First Round
Denver Broncos24 hours ago

Broncos Willing To Trade Up In This Week's Draft
Indianapolis Colts24 hours ago

Colts Searching For A Tight End That Can Do It All
Daniel Jones24 hours ago

Colts Expect Both Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Help Them In 2025
24 hours ago

Giants High On Jaxson Dart
24 hours ago

Saints Not Expected To Take Shedeur Sanders
Nikola Jokić1 day ago

Nikola Jokic Posts 19th Postseason Triple-Double
Kawhi Leonard1 day ago

Leads Clippers To Game 2 Victory
Jalen Brunson1 day ago

Leads All Scorers With 37 Points In Monday's Loss
Tobias Harris1 day ago

Notches Double-Double In Game 2 Win
Cade Cunningham1 day ago

Leads Pistons To Victory With 33 Points
Rob Dillingham1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Maxi Kleber1 day ago

Remains Out For Game 2
GG Jackson II1 day ago

Available For Tuesday
Evan Bouchard1 day ago

Dishes Out Three Assists In Postseason Opener
Connor McDavid1 day ago

Racks Up Four Points In Losing Effort
Phillip Danault1 day ago

Nets Two Goals In Game 1 Victory
Mark Scheifele1 day ago

Bags Two Points In Monday's Win
Lane Hutson1 day ago

Posts Two Assists In Playoff Debut
Aaron Gordon2 days ago

Cleared For Action