X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Lies, Damned Lies, and Fantasy Statistics - TD Rate

Pierre Camus dives into misleading fantasy football statistics based on small sample, schedule quirks, outlier performances, or other factors to help fantasy GMs find streamers to target or avoid and make smart lineup decisions for Week 8.

Over the last couple of weeks, this column has focused on the critical positions of running back and wide receivers. Now, it's time to give quarterbacks their due. It has been easier than ever to stick with the QB you drafted because, other than the tragic Dak Prescott injury, most have gone through the season unscathed. That makes it easier to focus more closely on their performance and remaining schedule in order to determine value for the rest of the season.

Our deceptive stat of the week is a relatively simple one: touchdown rate. Simply divide the number of touchdowns thrown by pass attempts and you get an idea of how often a QB registers a score. The problem is that it can be one of the most volatile stats out there and shouldn't be used at all in fantasy analysis.

Not all advanced metrics are meaningful and some can be downright deceptive. My goal is to point out potential outliers that could steer you wrong when making key lineup decisions for Week 8 and beyond.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Touchdown Rate - Quarterbacks

Aside from the elite passers like Russell Wilson, who are productive every week no matter what, defensive matchup usually dictates how a QB will perform. Every quarterback seems to rack up yardage these days, no matter how good or bad, so the key difference for fantasy teams is how many times he can reach the end zone.

Alas, touchdowns are a highly unpredictable stat and touchdown rates fluctuate yearly. The best seasons we've seen recently in this category include Carson Wentz in 2017 (7.5%), Pat Mahomes in 2018 (8.6%), and Lamar Jackson in 2019 (9.0%). All were marked by a sharp drop the following season: Wentz (5.2%), Mahomes (5.4%), Jackson (6.2% so far).

Touchdown rates also hit peaks and valleys throughout the season, as all but the very best and very worst offenses perform inconsistently. An early-season top scorer could hit a wall, as seems to be happening to Josh Allen. Likewise, there are bound to be slow starters that catch fire later in the season. Let's identify two of each to help make better lineup decisions at QB.

 

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

7.6% TD% (3 out of 32)

It's clear that this stat is an outlier because a week ago Mayfield had not thrown more than two TD in a game and held a 5.8% touchdown rate. His sudden five-TD outburst propped him up among the leaders when he had previously been middle-of-the-pack. His career mark thus far is 5.3% so expect regression to the mean. He exceeded two touchdowns in a game twice all last year, so maybe one more is coming.

We can't really use Odell Beckham's absence as an argument against Mayfield since his career-best scoring day came after OBJ left the game. Also, consider that Mayfield has been more productive on the whole without Beckham, including .32 more touchdown passes per game.

So replacing OBJ on the field with DPJ (Donovan Peoples-Jones of course) may not hurt him statistically as you might expect but you shouldn't expect more than two TD per game anyway. Cleveland has a pillow-soft schedule after their Week 9 bye, which makes him tempting, but Nick Chubb may be back shortly after.

 

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

6.3% TD% (8 out of 32)

The first impression Cousins gives fantasy managers is typically that of a middling QB2 with upside in good matchups but never a week-winning ceiling. He is actually more boom/bust than most quarterbacks and more so than we imagine. In 2019, Cousins had seven multi-touchdown games with more than half of his season total of 26 coming in four games where he amassed 14 TD. He also had seven games where he accounted for one or no touchdowns, including on the ground.

This year, he's already thrown for three TD twice. One of those contests came against the 1-5 Falcons Defense, which has given up the most passing touchdowns and yards in the league this year. The other was courtesy of the Titans Defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns. Yet, even against Houston and Seattle, who rank 22nd and 32nd in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, he combined for one score in those games.

With Dalvin Cook set to come back and a tougher divisional schedule on the horizon, Cousins isn't likely to boom for quite a while. Only Week 11 vs Dallas and Week 13 vs Jacksonville offer any hope for him as a streaming option.

 

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

4.2% TD% (21 out of 32)

Ryan's current TD rate matches last year and wouldn't be the lowest of his career at all. In fact, Ryan has finished with a TD rate of 4.2% or lower in five different seasons. He may well settle into this range for the foreseeable future but it doesn't truly speak to his fantasy value.

Ryan has 12 passing touchdowns on the season (tied for 13th) and is the league-leader in passing yards at 2,181. Despite playing in an offense that has been inefficient for much of the season, these numbers come as a result of sheer volume. Atlanta's terrible defense will continue to make sure the team is in pass-first mode often, so don't expect that to change in 2020.

We also can't forget that he was without Julio Jones in Week 3 and Week 5, while he was mostly a decoy in Week 4. It's no surprise that Ryan had a total of one touchdown across those three games. With Jones at full speed, Ryan has been a top-12 fantasy QB.

image taken from RotoViz

As it stands, Ryan should easily finish as a top-1o fantasy quarterback and should average at least two TD per game the rest of the way along with outstanding yardage totals. The downside to hanging your hate on Ryan is that his matchups in Weeks 15-16 for the fantasy playoffs are Tampa Bay and Kansas City, who allow the third and 10th-fewest fantasy PPG to quarterbacks.

 

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

3.1% TD% (27 out of 32)

It feels as if Burrow is having a really solid rookie year and putting up fantasy points nearly every week. He ranks as a top-15 fantasy QB in most leagues and is as high as eighth in leagues in standard leagues where yardage counts more, thanks to his 289 Y/G average. Yet, he could be doing so much better.

Burrow is near the bottom of the barrel in touchdown rate, tied with Nick Foles and below Philip Rivers. A 9/5 TD/INT rate is nothing to brag about. Are we elevating Burrow too high? Of course, the answer is no because this stat is somewhat misleading (naturally). It also underscores how good Burrow has been.


Just like Ryan, Burrow is getting by on volume. His 293 pass attempts are the most in the NFL, four more than Ryan. As a result, he's third in passing yards but his TD rate takes a hit because he is throwing the ball so often. It is puzzling why he has just nine touchdowns through the air then. It's not as if Joe Mixon is stealing all the scores on the ground; he has just three touchdowns this year and the team as a whole has seven rushing touchdowns.

The issue has been inefficiency in the red zone. Cincinnati ranks 26th in offensive touchdowns per game because they are 28th in red-zone scoring efficiency, settling for field goal attempts on half of their trips. It's not a good sign when your kicker leads the league in field goals. That figure has improved up to 63% over their last three games, however, and one would assume Burrow will get more comfortable as the year progresses. The Bengals have an extremely favorable schedule throughout the second half, so he can be considered a weekly QB1 in 12-team or deeper leagues.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Emilio Pagán

Emilio Pagan Notches Seventh Save On Saturday
Yusei Kikuchi

Highly Ineffective In Early Exit On Saturday
Jonathan Cannon

Strikes Out Five In Win
Ben Williamson

Drives In Four In Two-Hit Game
Luis Robert Jr.

Homers, Swipes A Bag On Saturday
Garrett Mitchell

Headed To IL With Oblique Strain
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
William Nylander

Posts Two Assists In Losing Effort
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Kyle Busch

Nearly Always Leads at Talladega, but Rarely Leads Much
Tyler Reddick

Drafting Track Record Worse Than It Looks
Daniel Suarez

Likely Motivated at Talladega Since Trackhouse Cars Likely Too Slow for Him to Win On Regular Tracks
Ryan Preece

Qualifies Fourth Due to Ford Dominance, but Don't Expect Him to Finish There
Justin Haley

Qualifies 37th in First Race After Rodney Childers's Departure
Chase Briscoe

Post-Daytona 500 Penalty Results in Much Worse Talladega Qualifying for Chase Briscoe
Alex Bowman

Starting Too Well for Place Differential Points, but Not Well Enough for Leader Points
Chris Buescher

Qualifies Sixth Thanks to Ford Dominance, but Probably Won't Lead Enough to Be Valuable in DFS
Ty Gibbs

Despite Current Momentum, Ty Gibbs Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Jake Sanderson

Keeps Senators Alive With Overtime Winner
Mackenzie Blackwood

Records First Postseason Shutout
Gabriel Landeskog

Scores First Goal In Nearly Three Years
Ivan Barbashev

Gives Vegas Vital Win
Nikita Kucherov

Records Three Assists In Game 3 Win
Troy Stecher

Cleared For Sunday
Luis Castillo

Throws Six Shutout Frames On Saturday
Zach Neto

Homers, Swipes Three Bags
Austin Hays

Smacks Two Homers On Saturday
Jorge Polanco

Goes Deep Twice On Saturday
Rafael Devers

Homers, Gets On Base Five Times Across Doubleheader
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hits Four Homers On Saturday
Hunter Greene

Lights Up Rockies For Eight Strikeouts Saturday
Adael Amador

Collects Three Hits And Home Run No. 1
Jarren Duran

Steals Home And Racks Up Three Hits
Framber Valdez

Tosses Complete Game In A Loss To The Royals
Michael Wacha

Spins Six Shutout Innings
Alan Trejo

Traded To The Rockies
Jackson Chourio

Nearly Hits For The Cycle
Robbie Ray

Records Eight Strikeouts
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo Continues To Pitch Well
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Brenden Dillon

Out On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Luke Hughes

To Remain Out On Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Aliaksei Protas

Practices Fully On Saturday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Gabriel Vilardi

A Game-Time Decision For Sunday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Ross Colton

Unavailable Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Remains Out Saturday
Riley Leonard

Drafted By Colts Saturday

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield

Dallas Cowboys Draft Jaydon Blue In Fifth Round

49ers Add Jordan Watkins To Offense

Browns Trade Up To Select Shedeur Sanders In The Fifth Round
Sam Howell

Seahawks Trade Sam Howell To Vikings

Titans Continue To Address Offense, Select Elic Ayomanor

Chiefs Bolster Receiver Room With Jalen Royals

Commanders Add Jaylin Lane To Wide Receiver Room

Browns Select Dylan Sampson With 126th Pick

Titans Use Fourth-Round Pick On Gunnar Helm
Jarquez Hunter

Rams Select Jarquez Hunter In Fourth Round

Texans Trade Up For Woody Marks

Jets Select Arian Smith In Fourth Round

Panthers Select Trevor Etienne 114th Overall

Giants Take CFP Darling Cam Skattebo
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Jacob Markstrom

Ends Losing Spell Friday
Cole Caufield

Collects Two Points In Friday's Win
Connor McDavid

Totals Three Points In Game 3 Win
Johnathan Kovacevic

Exits Early Friday
Sam Montembeault

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Friday
Logan Thompson

Exits Loss With Injury
Brandon Hagel

Suspended For Game 3
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF