Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Minnesota Vikings as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Throughout this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

Despite signing Justin Jefferson to a long-term extension, the offseason hasn't been kind to the Minnesota Vikings. They lost Kirk Cousins in free agency to the Atlanta Falcons and will be using either Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy as their starting quarterback. That is a major downgrade, and it'll have significant consequences for the entire offense. Jordan Addison has continued making unsafe and poor decisions off the field. At this point, after his reckless driving incident last season, there's a good chance he'll be suspended for an unknown period of time this year. T.J. Hockenson suffered a torn ACL late last season, and while reports have stated that his recovery is on track, he's still unlikely to be ready for Week 1. This offense is going to look vastly different this year.

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• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Fantasy Football Team Previews

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Sam Darnold: QB34, ADP 231
J.J. McCarthy

Despite Cousins being a top-tier fantasy option for years in Minnesota under head coach Kevin O'Connell, fantasy managers have very little confidence in either passer being fantasy-relevant, even though Joshua Dobbs finished as QB5, QB3, and QB14 in three out of the four games he appeared for Minnesota and played at least 75% of the snaps. Nick Mullens played 60% of the snaps in three contests last year. He finished as the QB11, QB11, and QB5. Full disclosure: Mullens' QB5 finish came in Week 18, but he still scored 22.6 points against Detroit in a game both teams were playing to win. 22.6 points will be a top-12 quarterback every week, so the point still stands. Mullens and Dobbs finished as top-12 quarterbacks in 62.5% of the games where they played 60% of the snaps. In comparison, Jared Goff finished as a top-12 quarterback in 41% of his games last year. I'm not saying we should be drafting Darnold or McCarthy over Goff, but it is interesting.

In those eight games, Dobbs and Mullens combined to complete 163 out of their 241 passes, good for a 67.6% completion percentage. They threw for 1,942 yards, an average of 242.8 yards per game. While they struggled with turnovers, throwing 13 interceptions, they did have 11 touchdown throws. Using their per-game averages, they'd finish with 4,163 yards and 23 touchdowns. Their passing yard per game average would have ranked 12th among quarterbacks who made at least six starts last year. These stats may become more relevant and useful for Minnesota's pass-catchers and how we value them for the 2024 season.

The problem for fantasy managers is we don't know how many games Darnold will start or when McCarthy will get the nod. It makes it difficult to commit or even gamble on either player. Given their projected win-loss record and McCarthy's draft capital, we should expect to see McCarthy at some point this season. Darnold is not the long-term option and the whole organization knows it. In fact, Darnold may have been signed just so they had someone to throw to the wolves early.

The Vikings' early-season schedule is brutal. They are underdogs in 6-of-7 games to kick things off.

Week 1: -1 @ NYG
Week 2: +6 vs SF
Week 3: +3.5 vs HOU
Week 4: +5 @ GB
Week 5: +4 vs NYJ
Bye
Week 7: +3 vs DET
Week 8: +3.5 @ LAR

When do we see J.J. McCarthy?

— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) July 25, 2024

It's hard to imagine an early-season schedule being more difficult than that. We could see McCarthy in Week 7 or Week 9 against the Colts. The back half of their schedule is much easier and will give McCarthy a better chance of success. Avoiding that brutal stretch early also doesn't risk him losing his confidence. Following their game against the Colts, they'll face the Jaguars, Titans, Bears, Cardinals, Falcons, Bears, Seahawks, Packers, and Lions. That is a much more friendly schedule for a rookie quarterback looking to learn the ropes.

With how hard their early schedule looks, it'll be difficult to trust Darnold even in two-quarterback leagues. However, they are underdogs in six of their first seven games, which could put Darnold and the Minnesota offense in a position where they are playing catch-up on the scoreboard. We saw Mullens in that situation in each of his three starts. He did finish with eight interceptions in those three contests. That's pretty awful. However, he still ended up performing well for fantasy managers. He scored 19.1, 20.5, and 22.6 points and finished as a top-12 quarterback in all three weeks. That Jameis Winston type of play has some benefits for fantasy football, even if it looks ugly and requires fantasy managers to be patient, waiting for those garbage time points.

Rookie year starts by QBs drafted in top 10 since 2010:

17, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 15, 15, 15, 14, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 12, 12, 12, 11, 10
...
9 (Tua), 7 (Goff), 4 (Richardson), 2 (Lance), 1 (Mahomes), 0 (Locker)

"Learn on the bench" thing usually doesn't last very long

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 24, 2024

Darnold did get one start in Week 18 with the 49ers last year. He completed 16 of his 26 passes for 189 yards, one touchdown, and zero turnovers. He added 19 rushing yards and a rushing score to give him 17.5 fantasy points. Fantasy managers are likely best avoiding Darnold altogether. As evidenced by the tweet above, there's a good chance we will see McCarthy under center this season. Given their brutal early-season schedule, it's difficult to imagine him providing any fantasy value in those first few weeks of the season until we see McCarthy replace him.

As for McCarthy, fantasy managers don't need to worry about him right now. He's not someone fantasy managers need to draft currently. Reports seem to favor Darnold getting the early-season start, which, given their schedule, makes sense for McCarthy and his development. Given his draft capital and some of his physical tools, he's someone to keep an eye on. He's got some excellent support players around him. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones... it doesn't get much better than that. When McCarthy does get his chance, and the schedule lightens up, if he can minimize mistakes and just let his skilled players do the heavy lifting, he could end up being a streamer to watch and quite possibly a QB2. We saw Mullens and Dobbs perform like that last season.

Verdict: Sell Sam Darnold, Keep an eye on J.J. McCarthy

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook

Aaron Jones: RB18, ADP 59
Ty Chandler: RB49, ADP 141

It's amazing how quickly a player can earn the term "injury-prone." It's equally amazing how one injury-plagued season can alter historical reality. Yes, Jones missed six games last season. Yes, Jones played fewer than 35% of the snaps in three others, crushing fantasy managers' matchups for those who started him in those weeks. That is all true. There's no disputing it; it's just the facts.

Since we're talking about facts, though, let's talk about 2022, when Jones played all 17 games and finished with 272 touches and over 1,500 scrimmage yards. Not to mention his two playoff games last season, where he racked up 247 total yards and three touchdowns on 43 carries. But he's injury-prone, right? Surely, another season must depict that notion similarly to 2023, right? It certainly wasn't 2022, what about 2021?

Jones played 15 games in 2021, missing two. One was Week 18, a meaningless game for the Packers, and one in which Jordan Love, a backup at the time, played the entire second half. In the Packers' first playoff game that season, Jones had 21 touches and 170 yards against a stout 49ers defense. 2021 doesn't fit the injury-prone narrative here, but what about 2020? Not exactly. He missed two games in the middle of the season but was otherwise healthy. He finished with 248 touches and just shy of 1,500 scrimmage yards. He also scored 11 touchdowns. Jones played all 16 games in 2019 and finished with 285 touches, 1,558 scrimmage yards, and 19 touchdowns.

From 2019-2022, he averaged 15.5 games played (remember 2019 and 2020 only had 16-game seasons), 205 carries, 1,027 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns, 67 targets, 52 receptions, 404 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. Let's repeat: for four years straight, he averaged 15.5 games, 257 touches, 1,431 scrimmage yards, and 12 total touchdowns. Interestingly enough, Jones played in the second-most games in the NFL from 2019-2022 among running backs with at least 400 rushing attempts.

Look, I get it. A running back gets to be 29-30 years old, and the belief immediately becomes he's not good anymore. However, some are the exception to that rule. Elite players are the exception to that rule. Make no mistake; Jones is elite and has been for some time. The only reason Jones isn't often spoken of with the other elite running backs in the NFL is because Matt LaFleur has never given him high touch totals. Don't believe me? Well, let's go to the numbers because numbers don't lie.

Ladies and gentlemen, those numbers are elite. Over the past five seasons, 72 running backs have had at least 300 carries. Jones is fifth in yards per carry (4.9), fifth in rush success rate (55.0%), sixth in yards after contact per attempt (2.4), and 11th in attempts per broken tackle (11.7). In five straight seasons, Jones has been in the top 16 in yards per carry, rush success rate, yards after contact per attempt, attempts per broken tackle, yards per touch, yards created per touch, and yards per route run. This past season was Jones' first year finishing outside the top 15 in half-PPR PPG.

If you look at the table above and focus on his half-PPR PPG, it's important to note A.J. Dillon's negative impact on Jones' touchdown equity. In 2021, Dillon had 21 attempts inside the 10-yard line and 10 inside the five-yard line compared to Jones, who had 15 and six, respectively. In 2022, the discrepancy got even wider. Dillon had 17 attempts inside the 10-yard line and 10 inside the five-yard line. Jones had nine and two, respectively. That change didn't happen because Jones wasn't good in those situations, as he scored 16 and nine rushing touchdowns in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Rather, that change largely happened due to Dillon's almost 250-pound frame.

Most top-5 finishes in differential between PPR/G and Weighted Opportunity/Game
[since 2018]

1A. Christian McCaffrey (4 seasons)
1B. Derrick Henry (4 seasons)
...
2A. Nick Chubb (2 seasons)
2B. Austin Ekeler (2 seasons)
2C. Aaron Jones (2 seasons)

Nobody else has multiple.

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 18, 2024

Jones has been one of the best running backs since LaFleur came to Green Bay. Look at where he finished compared to other running backs in his opportunity share and touches compared to his final half-PPR PPG. Jones has consistently outperformed the number of touches he's been given every season from 2019-2022.

It's also important to remember that while he did struggle with injuries in 2023, Jones finished the season on an absolute tear. He missed Weeks 12-14 but was virtually unstoppable from Week 15 through the NFC Divisional Round. In those six games, Jones had 93 carries and 526 yards. He also had 15 targets, 10 receptions, and 55 receiving yards. He scored three total touchdowns. His per-game averages in his final six games of the season would equate to 264 carries, 1,490 rushing yards, 43 targets, 28 receptions, and 8.5 total touchdowns. He averaged a ridiculous 5.6 yards per carry during that stretch. He recorded five straight 100+ rushing yard performances starting in Week 16.

While most fantasy managers are likely focused on all the negatives associated with his team's change, there are also many positives. Let's start with the negatives. Yes, the quarterback situation in Minnesota is a concern. Sam Darnold is not good, and J.J. McCarthy is a rookie. There's no sugarcoating this one. The downgrade from Jordan Love to whoever the Vikings start is significant. However, from Weeks 9-18 last season following Cousins' injury, the Vikings managed to score 24+ points four times and scored 20 or more six times, and they missed Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson for a few of those games.

During those nine games, the Vikings offense averaged just over 342 yards per game. Over 17 games, they would've had over 5,821 yards of offense. That would've ranked 12th last year, just ahead of the Houston Texans and behind the Green Bay Packers. The problem was they couldn't finish drives, and there were far too many turnovers. Darnold won't help with either problem, but McCarthy might. Quite honestly, that's just about where the negatives end. To be fair, quarterback play is a big one. Now, let's get to the positives.

Both offensive lines are excellent. In PFF's final 2023 offensive line rankings, the Packers finished 11th, and the Vikings finished 12th. Both units are expected to flirt with being a top-10 unit again this season. The Vikings have two bookend tackles in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill.

However, the biggest and most significant positive is how head coach Kevin O'Connell has deployed his backfield. Last season, Alexander Mattison was the Vikings' No. 1 running back, and in the first 12 games of the season, he played 45% of the snaps or more in every game. He failed to do that in the final five games. However, Mattison was on pace in the first 12 games for 224 carries, 40 targets, and 27 receptions. Mattison had the eighth-highest expected half-PPR total in those first 12 weeks of the season. The problem for him and fantasy managers was that he was bad. Awful, really. Mattison had the worst differential between his actual and expected fantasy points at -48.0.

That volume and workload should be considered great for Jones, though! In 2022, when Dalvin Cook was still a Viking, he finished as the RB11 with a 13.4 half-PPR PPG. He had an expected half-PPR PPG average of 13.7, the eighth highest among running backs. Cook finished with 264 carries, 56 targets, and 39 receptions. These two seasons, O'Connell's only two with Minnesota, should give fantasy managers a fairly good baseline of what to expect from Jones.

At the minimum, we should expect a Mattison-like workload, with Jones finishing with around 250 touches. Jones could have as many as 300 touches with a Cook-like workload, which should be considered his ceiling outcome. Considering Jones is a far superior player to Mattison, fantasy managers should expect around 275 touches. Based on his yards-per-touch totals from the table average, even if we take his worst outcome from the last five years, he'd still finish with 1,430 scrimmage yards.

“Aaron Jones looks super quick out there. He could be in line for a big year if — and this is the key — he can stay healthy.” https://t.co/fbUizN8qq3

— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) July 26, 2024

Jones has a much better chance of dominating snaps and touches in Minnesota than he did in Green Bay. LaFleur has always been committed to a running-back-by-committee approach, so AJ Dillon continued to get so much work. Kevin O'Connell hasn't. He leaned on Cook in 2022 in a big way and utilized him as their full-time workhorse. That's a major positive for Jones' fantasy potential. The other is touchdowns. Over the past three years, because of LaFleur's desire to use Dillon near the goal line, Jones has had just eight rushing touchdowns in the past three seasons. With only Ty Chandler behind him on the depth chart in Minnesota, there's no way Jones will be ceding many, if any, scoring opportunities in 2024.

It's reasonable for fantasy managers to expect Jones to score eight to 12 touchdowns this season, a notion that was unrealistic the past three seasons in Green Bay due to Dillon's presence. Many might say, "Well, he did score 10 in 2021!" He did. Off of six receiving touchdowns on 65 targets. He had a touchdown rate of 9.2%. During Davante Adams' best seasons in Green Bay, 2016-2021, he had an 8.1% touchdown rate. Like I said, it's unrealistic.

The Vikings are expected to be without tight end T.J. Hockenson for the first six to 10 weeks of the 2024 season, and his absence could mean even more involvement for Jones in the passing game. After Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the Vikings do not have a dependable pass-catcher, and Jones could very well become either quarterback's primary and preferred safety valve. That would be a major boon to his fantasy value, and fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if that's exactly what happens. Jones is an excellent pass-catcher, and Jefferson and Addison are best deployed as downfield weapons, which could open up Jones underneath.

Another potential positive development for Jones would be McCarthy being better than he's currently credited for. As a rookie, it's hard to know what to expect from him, but McCarthy may be good. Maybe even really good. If that happens to be the case, Jones' fantasy value will receive another boost due to an overall increase in the team's offensive efficiency and scoring opportunities. Remember, Jones could be in line for the most carries, targets, receptions, and goal-line opportunities he's had in the past three years. Outside of last year, Jones finished as the RB12 and RB15 in 2022 and 2021, respectively.

We've been talking Jones up quite a bit, and there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about his 2024 potential. However, due to his age, his injury issues last year, and moving to a new team, there are plenty of red flags to be cognizant of, which will continue to negatively impact his ADP. Some things should be giving fantasy managers pause and some concern. However, those are largely baked into his price. It's a fair price for fantasy managers that accounts for some of the concerns but still presents enough equity where he could outplay his current positional ranking.

Chandler's opportunities increased late in the season after Mattison struggled immensely. From Weeks 10-18, Chandler played 20 or more snaps in seven games. He averaged 58.7 yards per game and 4.57 yards per carry. He also had 2.14 receptions and 16.1 receiving yards per game. In these seven games, Chandler averaged 11.1 half-PPR PPG. That included games of 10.5 (RB26) and 13.0 (RB16). There was another shift in Week 15 when Chandler became the starter. From Weeks 15-18, Chandler played 64% of the snaps and was the clear No. 1 back for the Vikings. The weeks previously mentioned came in Week 10 and Week 11 when he was operating as the 1B to Alexander Mattison's 1A.

“I love where Ty’s at. Gonna be a big offseason for him. Really, really excited about Ty.”#Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell with some more love for Ty Chandler, who’s currently being drafted as the RB38 in best ball https://t.co/6MkiNQZ8eg pic.twitter.com/AIHbYt58Uf

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) February 28, 2024

In those final four games of the season, Chandler increased his rushing yard per game average to 64.5 and averaged 4.87 yards per carry. He handled 100% of the team's carries inside the five-yard line and 57% inside the 10. He averaged 17.2 receiving yards per game. His 12.2 half-PPR PPG average would have finished as the RB20 and was the same PPG average Bijan Robinson had last season. Most of his points during this stretch came in Week 15 when he scored 23.2 half-PPR points and finished as the RB4 that week. He didn't score double-digits in the other three contests but was over seven half-PPR points in all three games. In Week 18, he scored 9.9 points and finished as the RB26.

Chandler is not very expensive and is priced more closely as a pure handcuff than a running back that could have some stand-alone value. While we should expect Jones to handle most of the work, given his age, injury concerns from last year, and the fact that he's learning a new offense, we could see a 55/45 split. It's possible that instead of Jones being the No. 1 and Chandler being the No. 2, we see more of a 1A and 1B scenario, in which case Chandler's price is good for fantasy managers. Even as a handcuff, Chandler would immediately become an RB2 weekly play if Jones were to miss time. That makes Chandler an appealing player at his current price point. He's a player fantasy managers should be buying this year. There are plenty of ways for Chandler to make good on his price.

Verdict: Fair Price on Aaron Jones, Buy Ty Chandler

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

Justin Jefferson: WR3, ADP 5
Jordan Addison: WR38, ADP 91

Fantasy managers don't hesitate much when it comes to Justin Jefferson, which is understandable to some extent. He is Justin Jefferson, after all. However, it's just a fact that every elite receiver needs a good quarterback. We can look at what happened with Davante Adams last year with Jimmy Garoppolo and Aidan O'Connell. We can return to some of the years DeAndre Hopkins spent in Houston. We can all acknowledge Jefferson is the best receiver on Planet Earth. We can all admit that won't change even if Ja'Marr Chase or CeeDee Lamb outproduce him in 2024. However, for fantasy managers, that production matters.

To better understand what to expect from this offense, we will look at a couple of tables from different periods from last season. The first is from Weeks 1-4, when all of Jefferson, Hockenson, Addison, and Cousins were healthy. As you can see from the table below, Jefferson dominated the target share and performed as the WR1 in all of fantasy football. His 135.8 yards per game average put him on pace for 2,309 yards. Meanwhile, Addison was a distinct No. 3 option in their offense. His route participation wasn't over 70%, and his target share was just 12.1%. Some of that, however, can be attributed to the fact that they were his first four games in the NFL.

In Week 5, Jefferson hurt his hamstring, leaving Addison and Hockenson as Cousins' primary options in the passing game. From Weeks 5-8, Addison's role increased. He started performing as a No. 1 receiver on Sundays and in the fantasy football world. His targets per game exploded, as did his efficiency. His yard per route run increased from 1.58 to 2.38. His first read target share also increased from 14.4% to 24.8%, still second to Hockenson.

Unfortunately, in Week 9, Cousins tore his Achilles, which changed the entire offense and season for the Vikings. They shifted to a combination of Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens and sprinkled in a little Jaren Hall for good measure. Not surprisingly, the offense's efficiency dropped, and how it operated was very different. While Addison's route participation increased to nearly 95%, his efficiency fell, as shown below. Once again, Hockenson dominated the target share with Jefferson out. His 28.2% target share dwarfed Addison's 19.4%. There was also a vast difference between their yard-per-route run averages. Addison was hit hard by the change at quarterback.

That brings us to Week 15, the lone game fantasy managers got to see with all three pass-catchers healthy, without Cousins under center. This is a one-game sample size, so there are some obvious concerns about drawing too much from a singular contest. However, one thing remained constant. Addison remained at the bottom of whichever target hierarchy there was. His target share and target per route run both trailed Jefferson and Hockenson. His first read target share was not even close to that of the other two. While Addison did get the most points, which can be attributed to touchdowns, it was a fickle stat in a sample size of one.

For the season's final three weeks, Weeks 16-18, it was just Jefferson and Addison this time. Hockenson tore his ACL and MCL, leaving the two receivers as the primary pass-catchers for Cousins' replacements. As you can see from the table above and below, Jefferson was still Jefferson. His expected half-PPR PPG average showcases that much. What is clear, however, is that Addison operated as the bottom man on the target hierarchy, regardless of who was available and who was at quarterback.

So, what do we do with all of that information? Does any of it matter, considering Hockenson's injury? Given that Addison was a rookie and Hockenson will now be working his way back from a torn ACL and MCL, the target share gap we saw last year between the two will likely disappear. We should expect to see both players much closer, with Addison possibly even taking the lead. However, it's important to note what happened when Cousins was not in the game during our Weeks 9-14; the backup quarterbacks targeted Hockenson at a far higher clip. This makes sense. Oftentimes, backup quarterbacks are far less likely to push the ball downfield and opt for the easier throw, which will often be the tight end. Jefferson is different because Jefferson is Jefferson.

At this stage of his career, we know who Darnold is, and it's not very good. We shouldn't expect him to support more than one consistent fantasy-relevant pass-catcher. The other question is, if Addison is suspended for three to four games, as expected, and Hockenson is out for four weeks on the short-term IR, how many games do these three play with Darnold? There are so many questions about Minnesota pass-catchers.

We know Jefferson will get him, but even he'll be negatively affected by the likely poor quarterback plays some weeks. Yes, we know he's going to get him and that he's good enough to overcome the quarterback issues at times, but it could be inconsistent and a bit more boom-or-bust than we've expected. In that sense, taking Chase or even Amon-Ra St. Brown might be the safer route. Chase and ARSB have top-5 and even top-3 ceilings, so you're not giving up too much ceiling for the safer alternatives. Given his historical production and what he did last year without Cousins, Jefferson's price isn't egregious. For the most part, it's fair. He could legitimately have 200 targets this season. However, the quarterback concerns are too much for me. His price is fair, but I'd rather slightly sell him and select Chase or ARSB. Fantasy managers get a more consistent producer with a higher weekly floor, and you're not sacrificing much of anything in terms of upside and league-winning potential.

As for Addison, fantasy managers should be bracing for a three to four-game suspension due to his off-field incidents. Last year, he had a reckless driving ticket, and this year, he was found asleep in the driver's seat in the middle of a highway. When he does come back, if he's working as the No. 2 target behind Jefferson, he will be fairly boom or bust because of how much volume Jefferson will command. Rashee Rice is also considering a potential suspension, but he's going at WR39. His quarterback is Patrick Mahomes. Fantasy managers should prefer Rice to Addison. Even guys like Ladd McConkey, Christian Watson, and Keon Coleman have fewer question marks and a higher upside than Addison. For this reason, fantasy managers should be selling Addison at his current price. Given his likely suspension, quarterback issues, and target competition, I'd feel more comfortable selecting him around WR45.

Verdict: Mostly Fair Price on Justin Jefferson (Slight Sell) and Sell Jordan Addison

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook

T.J. Hockenson: TE14, ADP 122

This all comes down to Hockenson's health. Despite the concerns at quarterback, if Hockenson is healthy, he has a great chance of paying off at his current ADP. The problem is that he tore his ACL and MCL on December 24, 2023. It was a late-season injury, occurring in Week 15. As if a torn ACL wasn't bad enough, he also tore his MCL. That puts a lot of questions into play about when he'll return and when he'll be 100%. We've previously discussed Minnesota's early-season schedule, and if they start the season 1-7, will we see Hockenson in a full-time role this season? Minnesota has a Week 6 bye. If Hockenson is put on early-season IR and misses the first four weeks of the season, he could still be held out in Week 5, giving him another two weeks off. This would mean Hockenson wouldn't return to the field until Week 7.

(1) TJ Hockenson

Late Jan ACL+MCL surgery = shot for Week 1, but data favors mid-Oct.

Receiving efficiency dips ~15% year 1, and TEs see an uptick in missed games during 1st 6 wks back.

Data projects solid production last third of season.

2/5

— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) June 22, 2024

Given what Hockenson is overcoming with his injury and the loss of Kirk Cousins, it's borderline irrelevant to look back at his stats from last year. Also, first-round receiver Jordan Addison will be entering his second season and will reasonably be better this year. He's likely looking at a suspension, but that may overlap with Hockenson's stint on short-term IR, so fantasy managers are unlikely to benefit from Addison's absence. While we can certainly predict a decrease in efficiency, which will negatively impact his yard-per-route run, yard-per-target, and yard-per-reception averages, we can still look at his target share to get an idea of what kind of volume Hockenson could be in store for.

Justin Jefferson played over 90% of the snaps in just five games last season, Weeks 1-4 and Week 15. In those five games, Hockenson posted a 19.9% target share. Addison was at just 13.1%, a figure we can certainly expect to increase going into his second season. It would also be reasonable to expect Hockenson to perform below what he did last season due to the injury. Hockenson had a 23% target per route run average, a very strong number for a tight end. Addison was at just 17%, but we should expect both players to move in opposite directions for the 2024 season.

From Weeks 9-18, without Cousins under center, the Vikings still threw the ball, on average, 35 times per game. In seven games with Cousins, Minnesota averaged 40 attempts per game. During this nine-game stint, Minnesota was forced to play without Cousins, but they still passed the ball at a 63.1% rate in neutral situations. This was the 10th highest in the league. Something even more surprising, even when leading by seven or more points, despite being without their starting quarterback, a situation you'd expect the offense to lean on their running game, Minnesota still passed the ball at a 60.0% clip, seventh-highest in the NFL.

The Vikings went 3-6 without Cousins last year. We've also already talked about their brutal early-season stretch. From Weeks 9-18, when losing by seven or more points, Minnesota passed the ball at a 69.3% rate, the third-highest in the NFL. Once Minnesota got inside the 10-yard line, they continued to pass the ball at an extremely high rate. They threw the ball 69.4% of the time in such situations, which was the second-highest. These are all great things for Hockenson's fantasy value once he returns. It shows O'Connell isn't scared to throw the ball just because Darnold or McCarthy is at quarterback.

Part of the high pass rates could be attributed to Mattison's struggles and the running game in general. Jones should help that and could allow O'Connell to take some pressure off of whoever is under center. If instead of throwing the ball 35 times per game as they did in Weeks 9-18, they throw the ball 33 times per game, and if instead of having a 20% share, Hockenson has an 18% target share, we should expect to see 5.9 targets per game. This is a huge decrease from the 8.8 targets he averaged per game last year before his injury.

From Weeks 1-15 last year, Hockenson had a 1.96-yard-per-route run in the top-7 among tight ends. This is another area where fantasy managers should expect a decline. If we see Hockenson's target per game average drop from 8.8 to 6.8, his fantasy value will plummet. Hockenson has struggled a bit in the touchdown department since becoming a Viking. He has just eight touchdowns on 213 targets, a 3.7% touchdown rate. His touchdown rate in Detroit was 5.2%.

Based on his 25-game stint with Minnesota, we'd be expecting some positive regression for Hockenson in terms of his touchdown rate. He averaged two red zone targets but just 0.35 end zone targets per game. As mentioned under the quarterbacks, they struggled mightily to find the end zone in Weeks 9-18. While we shouldn't necessarily expect Hockenson's touchdown rate to increase, we shouldn't expect it to decrease. His touchdown numbers, however, will go down with the decrease in targets.

Overall, Hockenson's price is fair. There's upside given his talent, historical production, and Minnesota's pass rates. If McCarthy is better than we expect, Hockenson could surprise later in the season. There are a few tight ends going behind Hockenson that offer the kind of upside he does as long as he's healthy. You could argue Pat Freiermuth, and I wouldn't object to that opinion. However, we're not going to squabble over one spot. Drafting Hockenson in the 11th round has all the risks baked into the price, and there's room for him to outplay his draft cost if he's healthy and down the stretch.

Verdict: Fair Price on T.J. Hockenson

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