X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Midseason Mea Culpas

Anyone who has read my work already knows this, but I've never been fully comfortable with the term "expert."

Why? The universe is chaos, especially when it comes to the weighted random number generators that we call sports. The few who are able to make a living as sports bettors still typically aren't much more accurate than simply flipping a coin. This isn't false modesty - I do consider myself good at the game and good at writing about it, at least to the level where I've managed to get paid to do so for half a decade. It's just the truth. We are all guessing at the end of the day; my guesses are simply more educated than most.

But when you spend hours every week dispensing advice about a game that displays only occasional adherence to rhyme or reason, being wrong is inevitable. With the All-Star break approaching, let's look back at some of my worst calls this spring and try to learn from the experience.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Players I Liked Too Much

Adam Frazier, 2B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

What I said: "After three seasons as a utility player, Frazier is finally getting a shot at everyday at-bats in Pittsburgh...[a] plus average, double digits in HR/SB, and 80+ runs scored are all realistic possibilities. He deserves a look at the end of many drafts."

What's actually happened: Frazier is indeed around an 80-run pace because he has managed to stick in the leadoff spot for the majority of the season. The pop and speed haven't really been there, though, as he's hit just four home runs and stolen only three bases in five attempts. And .275 isn't a bad batting average at all, but it won't move the needle much for fantasy squads.

Chances this might pan out anyway: Frazier hasn't been bad, and could still hit all these benchmarks with a few modest hot streaks. But he's also seen less and less time as the leadoff man in recent weeks, and simply isn't that dynamic of a player. (Okay, but nobody expected much of Frazier. This one isn't that bad. Let's get serious.)

Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

What I said: "I may be in the minority here, but I expect Votto to bounce back to pretty much where he had been [before 2018]. For 2019, I might actually prefer him to Cody Bellinger." Oof...yeah, that's the good stuff.

What's actually happened: We all know how fantastic Bellinger has been. Unfortunately, Votto has much more closely resembled the 2018 model than the hitting machine he used to be. Not only has his power remained depressed, he's on track for the worst batting average and highest strikeout rate of his career.

Chances this might pan out anyway: To be fair, Votto has shown some signs of life recently as he hit .299/.390/.506 in June. However, even that surge has left him with a .271/.366/.416 overall line. If he can keep it going, the end-of-year numbers may wind up respectable, even good. But he won't return a profit on his draft price, and he damn sure isn't going to be better than Bellinger.

Yu Darvish, SP, Chicago Cubs

What I said: "Very surprised at how little love Darvish [is] getting based on early ADP. Fairly high on him...great rebound candidate. Would be comfortable with him as a #3, could be a #2."

What's actually happened: Darvish was never a control artist in the best of times, but he couldn't buy a strike for the first six weeks of the season. He walked seven in his debut and six in a May 9 start against the friggin' Marlins, who rank dead last in walk rate at present. Over that span of eight starts, he issued an astounding 33 free passes in 36 innings.

Chances this might pan out anyway: Darvish has gotten it together with just 16 walks in his last 60 frames, and he continues to rack up strikeouts. Unfortunately, what has also continued is his inability to prevent home runs; despite a career best ground ball rate, he's allowing 1.9 HR/9 after clocking in at 1.3 and 1.6 the prior two seasons. Gonna go ahead and say he's probably not opting out of his contract after the season.

 

Players I Didn't Like Enough

Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates

What I said: I can't actually find a single instance of me discussing Bell this spring, either in columns or the weekly Monday AMA on Reddit. That's how little I thought of the guy.

What's actually happened: Only four hitters in MLB have a higher weighted on-base average than Bell - Bellinger, Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, and Charlie Blackmon. The Pirates' slugger ranks fourth in the league with 26 homers, which is already tied for his career high in just 84 games. He leads baseball with 81 RBI, and his 67 runs scored is tied for third. Oh, and he's also hitting over .300, no big deal.

Chances this might pan out anyway: Unless Bell is stricken by whatever mysterious ailment has caused Jose Ramirez to turn into a scrub, this will stand as an egregious oversight. Hell, it still might even then.

Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres

What I said: "The power and speed are legitimate, though the average shouldn't be counted upon given the high strikeout rates he has routinely run in the minor leagues. I don't think he'll be up before Super 2."

What's actually happened: Tatis broke camp with the Padres and, despite missing over a month with a hamstring injury, has produced 12 homers, 13 steals, and a 1.006 OPS. Were it not for Pete Alonso, he'd be the clear favorite for top rookie honors in the National League.

Chances this might pan out anyway: This one might actually turn. Tatis is almost certainly not going to keep running a BABIP well over .400 or keep hitting homers on nearly 30 percent of his fly balls, and as great as he's been so far, he's still striking out a ton. The usual concerns with rookies - pitchers making adjustments, the grind of a longer season than they're used to - are present as well. Like everyone else, I had no qualms about Tatis long-term - I just didn't see this explosion coming this soon, and at the risk of further egg on my face, am expecting a second-half fade.

 

The Friday Meta is Kyle Bishop's attempt to go beyond the fantasy box score or simple strategic pointers and get at the philosophical and/or behavioral side of the game. It is hopefully not as absurd, pretentious, or absurdly pretentious as that sounds.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Wendell Carter Jr.23 mins ago

Out Against Lakers
Anthony Davis41 mins ago

Available Versus Magic On Thursday
Rui Hachimura55 mins ago

Unavailable Thursday
Carlos Ulberg1 hour ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir1 hour ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes1 hour ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
MMA2 hours ago

Cong Wang Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo2 hours ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Macau
Petr Yan2 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Yves Missi2 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
CJ McCollum2 hours ago

Not Likely To Play Friday
Alexander Mattison2 hours ago

Zamir White Miss Practice Again
Brandon Ingram3 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Shohei Ohtani3 hours ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge3 hours ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Ja'Kobe Walter3 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Donte DiVincenzo3 hours ago

Available Thursday
Mike Conley3 hours ago

Will Not Play Thursday
Jordan Clarkson3 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Ausar Thompson3 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Zach Collins3 hours ago

Cleared To Play Thursday
Domantas Sabonis3 hours ago

Gets Through Full Practice
Chris Paul4 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Brock Purdy4 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Malik Monk4 hours ago

Making Progress
George Kittle4 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Tre Mann4 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Miles Bridges4 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Vince Williams Jr.4 hours ago

Out At Least A Month
Scottie Barnes4 hours ago

Returning On Thursday
Alex Ovechkin4 hours ago

To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Fractured Fibula
Paul George4 hours ago

Out At Least Two Games
Aaron Gordon4 hours ago

Availability In Question For Friday
Zach Hyman4 hours ago

Expected To Miss 4-7 Days
Kent Johnson4 hours ago

Back For Blue Jackets Thursday
Yaroslav Askarov5 hours ago

Makes Sharks Debut Thursday
Jalen Hurts5 hours ago

Practices In Full On Thursday
Mikael Granlund5 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Alexandar Georgiev5 hours ago

Returns To Action Versus Capitals
TB5 hours ago

Nicholas Paul Will Miss Thursday's Game
Frederik Andersen5 hours ago

To Miss 8-12 Weeks
Jake Ferguson5 hours ago

Still Not Practicing
Sam LaPorta5 hours ago

Looking Good For A Week 12 Return
Sam Darnold5 hours ago

Upgrades To Full Participation, On Track To Play
Isiah Pacheco6 hours ago

Remains Limited On Thursday
D'Andre Swift6 hours ago

Upgrades To Limited Participant On Thursday
CeeDee Lamb6 hours ago

Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
Ladd McConkey6 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Thursday
Mike Evans6 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Thursday
DeVonta Smith7 hours ago

Misses Another Practice
Cody Bellinger8 hours ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
Brandin Cooks8 hours ago

Preparing To Play In Week 12
CeeDee Lamb8 hours ago

Not Seen At Thursday's Practice
8 hours ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Aaron Rodgers9 hours ago

Jets Owner Suggested Benching Aaron Rodgers
Mike Evans10 hours ago

Practicing Again On Thursday
Chandler Stephenson11 hours ago

Registers Three Assists Versus Predators
Jason Robertson11 hours ago

Totals Three Points In Wednesday's Win
Nils Lundkvist12 hours ago

Exits Early With A Lower-Body Injury
Matthew Knies12 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Mikael Granlund12 hours ago

Exits Late With Injury Wednesday
Patrik Laine12 hours ago

Returns To Practice
Chris Sale23 hours ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal23 hours ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat1 day ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English1 day ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Josh Jacobs1 day ago

Limited With Multiple Injuries
DeVonta Smith1 day ago

Misses Practice On Wednesday
Seth Jones1 day ago

Expected To Miss Four Weeks
Sam Darnold1 day ago

Limited With Foot Injury
Max Domi1 day ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Jalen Hurts1 day ago

Limited On Wednesday
Connor Ingram1 day ago

Out Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen1 day ago

Returns To Action Versus Kings
Alex Tuch1 day ago

Available Wednesday
Tage Thompson1 day ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Jordan Eberle1 day ago

To Remain Out On Wednesday
Ludvig Aberg1 day ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim1 day ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy1 day ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole1 day ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
2 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers2 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
2 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri2 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
2 days ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
2 days ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
2 days ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
2 days ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
2 days ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
Luis Gil3 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Paul Skenes3 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brady Singer3 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
3 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
3 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
3 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler3 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva3 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy3 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
James Llontop4 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig4 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal4 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic4 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones4 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Week 12 Predictions: Picks and Analysis for Every Game Including Thursday Night Football

After some high-octane matchups over the last couple of Thursday nights, Week 12 kicks off in a more old-school fashion with a classic rivalry game between the Steelers and Browns. There are some fun matchups on this Week 12 slate, however, "Bye-Mageddon" certainly does take a little of the sizzle away, as six teams will […]


TJ Watt - IDP, Pittsburgh Steelers, DST, Defense, Fantasy Football Def

Week 12 Fantasy Football Team Defense Rankings: Steelers D/ST, Chiefs D/ST, Vikings D/ST, Eagles D/ST, Commanders D/ST, Texans D/ST, Broncos D/ST

Fantasy football defenses are largely matchup-dependent, so many fantasy managers opt to stream a different defense each week. If you're in that boat, use our Week 12 fantasy football defense (D/ST) rankings for 2024 to find the top available option. There are just three weeks of the fantasy football regular season left, so it's never […]


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Steelers vs. Browns TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson, Najee Harris, George Pickens

The Week 12 TNF game between two bitter AFC North rivals (Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers) is not likely to end up like the Thursday night game from two weeks ago when two different AFC North teams (Bengals and Ravens) battled to a 35-34 shootout. Somewhere deep in the charter of the Pittsburgh Steelers, I […]


DJ Moore - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12 - Thursday Updates for Deebo Samuel, D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy, Jonathon Brooks, Jauan Jennings, Tank Dell

Many fantasy managers are in must-win situations down the stretch, so it's never been more important to ace your start-or-sit calls. Our Week 12 TNF fantasy football overall rankings for 2024 are here to help. Ahead of the critical Week 12 slate of action, let's find out where players on the start-sit bubble such as […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football FLEX Rankings (RB, WR, TE) - Week 12 Thursday Updates for Chuba Hubbard, Calvin Ridley, Cedric Tillman, Jonnu Smith, Austin Ekeler

It's always tough to compare two flex options at different positions, but bye weeks and key injuries have made those start-sit decisions even tougher. We're here to help guide you with your lineup calls with our Week 12 TNF fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. Navigate the rankings below to find out where top flex […]


Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football Superflex 2QB Rankings for Week 12 - Thursday Updates for Tua Tagovailoa, Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, Austin Ekeler, Jayden Reed

Time is running out to collect "Ws" before the fantasy football playoffs begin, and if you need assistance, our Week 12 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for fantasy football can assist your start-or-sit efforts. Let's get to it! To begin Week 12 preparation, let's dig into the rankings to find out where key Superflex options […]


Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Running Back Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday RB Updates for Jonathon Brooks, J.K. Dobbins, Bucky Irving, Najee Harris, Kareem Hunt

We're onto Week 12 of the NFL campaign, which can only mean the fantasy football playoffs are just ahead. Whether you're at the top of your league standings, fighting for a playoff spot, or are just trying to play spoiler, our Week 12 TNF fantasy football running back rankings for 2024 are here to help you […]


Cedric Tillman - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

TNF Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday WR Updates for Cedric Tillman, Jauan Jennings, Josh Downs, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Moore

At the wide receiver spot especially, bye weeks and injuries are major factors in Week 12. If you don't have an excess of must-start WRs and need help identifying the top available options, we're here to help with our Week 12 TNF fantasy football wide receiver rankings for 2024. Let's dive in below to see […]


Jonnu Smith - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Tight End Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday TE Updates for George Kittle, David Njoku, Will Dissly, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry

In most leagues, only three weeks of the fantasy football regular season remain. If you desperately need a win to clinch a first-round bye or quality for the playoffs, use our Week 12 TNF fantasy football tight end rankings to help you with tough start-or-sit calls at the challenging TE spot. Ahead of the critical Week […]


Tommy DeVito- Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Not All Heroes...Play On Good Teams - Giants, Patriots, and Cowboys Fantasy Football Outlooks

It's well-known at this point that good offenses can help their players light up the scoreboards in fantasy football leagues. The mantra "trust in good players on good offenses" rings true, and some of the best seasons in fantasy football history have been aided by things like good playcalling and a good supporting cast. The […]


Baker Mayfield - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

TNF Quarterback Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday QB Updates for Anthony Richardson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Bo Nix, C.J. Stroud

It's a critical week for fantasy football, as the playoffs are just around the corner. If you need help to nail your optimal lineups this week, our Week 12 TNF fantasy football quarterback rankings for 2024 are here to assist. Ahead of the all-important Week 12 slate, let's navigate the rankings below and find out […]


Jaylen Waddle - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football Outlook - What's Wrong With Waddle?

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle was widely pushed as a potential league-winner in fantasy football in 2024 due to a variety of factors. The explosiveness and big-play ability of the Dolphins offense, the good play of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and his talent were a few of them. It's not worked out that way. It's […]


Isiah Pacheco - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Running Backs

Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Week 12 Updates for Isiah Pacheco, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Jalen Hurts, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Hurts, George Kittle, Calvin Ridley, more

Week 12 of the NFL's 2024 slate is coming up, and as the fantasy football playoffs draw closer, it's becoming more important than ever to stay ahead of injury news for key players. Leaving a hurt player in your lineup can result in disaster. The author of this article missed out on the fantasy playoffs […]