RADIO
The son of former NFL running back Michael Pittman Sr. (who won Super Bowl 37 as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), junior made waves at USC before heading to the NFL where he was taken in the second round (34th overall) of the 2020 Draft by the Indianapolis Colts in the same draft class that also featured Jonathan Taylor.
Pittman Jr. had a quiet rookie year where he battled through an injury in 2020 before bursting onto the scene in the 2021 season where he posted 88 receptions for 1,082 yards and six touchdowns. He is now onto his third quarterback in as many years going from Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz and now to the wily veteran, Matt Ryan.
In the 2021 season, Pittman finished as the WR21 in half as well as full PPR formats and flashed some promise for the future. Let's take a look at his dynasty value heading into 2022.
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Michael Pittman Jr. Dynasty Outlook
Pittman is currently ranked as the WR20 on Keep-Trade-Cut's current dynasty rankings and the WR18 on fantasy pros. He is going in about the fifth round of current dynasty startups and has risen about seven WR spots in the last month or so, which means that the bargain window to buy him has likely closed. Right now, the Colts' roster features T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, Ashton Dulin, and newly drafted Alec Pierce as the only significant contributors to the pass-catching corps. The chance for Pittman to lower his target ceiling from 129 seems unreasonable, making him a relatively safe choice for 2022.
While the Colts are a run-heavy offense, in 2021, he had a 25% target share on a team with only 521 pass attempts. Should the Colts be required to pass more this season, that only makes life better for Pittman Jr's fantasy managers.
Having Matt Ryan now in the fold in Indianapolis is big for Pittman Jr. While his 2021 season was far from his former MVP form, Ryan now steps into a situation with a much better offensive line, established running back, and receivers who can get open down the field. Where Ryan thrives is in the play-action passing game, where defenses keyed up on Jonathan Taylor, should help easily free things up for Pittman Jr.
Due to his lack of mobility, Ryan was unable to elevate the Falcons' offense where he was constantly under duress and was sacked a total of 81 times over the last two seasons. While he isn't the long-term answer for the Colts, they have a team ready to win now and Ryan is the best quarterback Pittman Jr. has had up until this point in his career.
What's Michael Pittman Jr. Worth?
The window to get Pittman at a value has likely closed, with his dynasty value on KTC going from WR27 to WR20 post-NFL draft. Since the Colts are typically not big spenders in free agency and have limited draft capital, there wasn't much of a chance that another receiver would be brought in to overtake Pittman Jr. as the alpha of the Colts' current crop of pass-catchers. Alec Pierce still has room to develop, but should eventually thrive in the slot role which will leave Pittman Jr. open on the outside for some big plays. At 6-4, 223 lbs., Pittman Jr. is a bigger, more physical brand of receiver who is built for sheer volume, something he may now see even more regularly from Ryan.
At just 24 years of age and soon to be entering his prime as a receiver, Pittman Jr. does not appear to be the kind of player one would want to trade away. While he may not produce on a fantasy level with the likes of Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, or Ja'Marr Chase, Pittman is a reliable player you put in your lineup as a solid WR2 with some untapped upside as a potential WR1.
If you have a pick as high as 1.02, it should be in the conversation to trade for Pittman Jr. While Treylon Burks, Garrett Wilson, and Drake London are all promising options at the top half of rookie drafts, they are relative unknowns at this juncture. If you have a team ready to win now and can move that pick for a sure thing in Pittman Jr., it would be a wise move to make versus waiting on a rookie to develop.
Final Fantasy Football Thoughts
Pittman Jr. is a reliable possession receiver and is best in full PPR formats where he may likely see 100+ receptions for the upcoming season. When trying to find players to trade for or draft in a startup, it's important to map out all 32 players who are likely to be the top targets on their team. Pittman Jr. easily fits the profile of someone who is the pure alpha on his team and will see the most targets on the Colts easily. This is important for fantasy purposes because a high number of targets typically creates a bigger pie when it comes to overall fantasy production. Given the lack of other receivers around him, but having the benefit of Jonathan Taylor to keep defenses honest, Pittman Jr. is a relatively safe option for fantasy.
Depending on your draft strategy, it is not optimal to bank on Pittman Jr. to be your WR1 for the upcoming season. While he has a chance to hit that type of ceiling, he should be viewed as a solid WR2 with potential upside. He is an absolute smash pick if available in the fifth round of startups and will give you plenty of confidence going forward.
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