X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump: Michael Conforto and Mike Clevinger

In the wake of the coronavirus, Major League Baseball games won't be starting on schedule. While there are obviously more important things going on right now than fantasy baseball, we baseball junkies have to do something to distract ourselves from losing one of our favorite hobbies. One way to do this is to try and figure out what a shortened MLB season means in fantasy.

While there isn't much you can do if your league has already drafted and some leagues are pushing their drafts back, there are still drafts happening right now. A player who is injured and "expected to miss Opening Day" can be tough to take on draft day, but the current situation could turn those injuries into buying opportunities.

Two players who currently represent substantial bargains in this author's opinion are Michael Conforto and Mike Clevinger. Here is a closer look at their profiles.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM)

ADP: 104.8

Conforto had a very strong 2019 season, slashing .257/.363/.494 with 33 HR and seven steals (and caught stealing twice). He suffered a Grade 1 oblique strain (the mildest type) shortly before the coronavirus suspended spring training, and the Mets have not announced a time table for his return. Since MLB doesn't have a time table to return either, Conforto represents a massive buying opportunity outside of the top 100.

First, Conforto has outstanding plate discipline skills. He walked an impressive 13 percent of the time last season, backed by a very strong 27.3% chase rate. His 11.2 SwStr% wasn't bad for a slugger at all, keeping his K% at a workable 23%. There are no red flags here, so Conforto should be able to at least match last season's OBP in 2020.

Second, Conforto's pop is legitimate. His 20.5% HR/FB last season was backed by a strong 11.9% rate of Brls/BBE, a significant uptick from his 9.5% mark in 2018. Conforto's FB% also climbed to 40% last season, a good number to see for any slugger. He also pulled more fly balls (26.1%) than he has over his career (21.5%), making it easier to reach the cheap seats.

Conforto's batting average offers some upside as well. He really didn't pull too many ground balls in 2019 (56.5% in fact), but opposing teams still shifted him in 275 of 372 opportunities. Predictably, it didn't work: Conforto hit an impressive .322 against it last season. Baseball Savant's xStats also say that Conforto was unlucky last season, giving him an xBA of .262 and xSLG of .504 that both best his actual marks. Throw above-average foot speed into the mix (27.5 ft./sec), and Conforto could best his career .294 BABIP this year.

Roster Resource currently projects Conforto to hit sixth in the Mets batting order, but this author has no idea why. He generally hit fourth (60 games), third (31), or second (21) in 2019, so the Mets are already in the habit of assigning him an important role. Furthermore, the site has J.D. Davis's unplayable defense, Robinson Cano's reanimated corpse, and Brandon Nimmo's empty OBP hitting in front of him. There's a real possibility that all three ends up on the bench before the season is through, creating plenty of opportunity for Conforto to move up.

Opportunity cost matters, and selecting Conforto generally means passing up on a bunch of "reliable" closers and players such as Sonny Gray (101.8 ADP), Mike Moustakas (99), Ramon Laureano (99), Luis Robert (96.2), and Nick Castellanos (94.2). Conforto is a good bet to outperform all of them, making him a great pick at his current price.

Verdict: Champ (based on strong peripherals, lineup opportunity, and track record)

 

Mike Clevinger (SP, CLE)

ADP: 42.4

Clevinger was nothing short of outstanding in 2019, posting a 2.71 ERA and 3.09 xFIP with a 33.9 K% over 126 IP. Unfortunately, enthusiasm for him dipped in fantasy circles after he underwent surgery to repair a partially torn meniscus on February 14. The procedure typically carries a 6-8 week recovery time table, which should have Clevinger ready to rock and roll comfortably before the now-delayed season begins.

If you were thinking that Clevinger's strikeout rate was a fluke, you should take another look at his arsenal. His fastball got a significant velocity spike last season (from 93.6 mph in 2018 to 95.5 mph last year), which likely contributed to a small spin rate bump as well (2,300 RPM in 2018, 2,341 last year. The result was an outstanding pitch with a 12.7 SwStr% despite a 57.3 Zone%.

Clevinger complements his fastball with a wipeout slider that posted a 20.8 SwStr%, 34.5 Zone%, and 38.6% chase rate in 2019, giving him the elite weapon that you need to maintain a K% above 30%. He also features a passable curve (13.6 SwStr%, but 33.6 Zone% and 33.7% chase rate) and change (15.2 SwStr%, but 38.8 Zone% and 33.8% chase) that could blossom into elite offerings in their own right.

You also have to love the idea of drafting a pitcher in the AL Central. The Royals and Tigers are both total dumpster fires, while the White Sox spent a fortune to make themselves merely bad. The Twins can hit, but Cleveland has elite pieces like Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez that can give them a run for their money. Clevinger should get plenty of favorable matchups and an inflated win total as a result.

Despite all of this, fantasy owners are taking pitchers like Jack Flaherty (23 ADP), Blake Snell (39.6), and Patrick Corbin (40.2) before Clevinger. Those guys are okay, but it says here that Clevinger will outperform them all by a wide margin. He's more than worthy of being your team's SP1 this season.

Verdict: Champ (based on outstanding peripherals, elite strikeouts, and soft competition)

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Royce Lewis58 mins ago

Might See More Time At Second Base
1 hour ago

Alex Bregman Has Bone Chip Removed From Elbow
1 hour ago

Angels Sign Kyle Hendricks
Max Greyserman1 hour ago

Earns Highest DraftKings Salary For WWT Championship
Harry Hall1 hour ago

In Solid Form Heading To Cabo
PGA1 hour ago

Matti Schmid On Fire Ahead Of WWT Championship
Jhonattan Vegas1 hour ago

A Safe Play At WWT Championship
Taylor Moore1 hour ago

Looks To Contend At WWT Championship
Patrick Fishburn1 hour ago

A Volatile Option At El Cardonal
Michael Kim1 hour ago

Aims For Back-To-Back Top-10 Finishes At WWT Championship
Charley Hoffman2 hours ago

Tough To Trust At WWT Championship
Deshaun Watson2 hours ago

Browns Not Ruling Out A Future With Deshaun Watson
Mike Evans2 hours ago

Working Off To The Side With Trainer
Keon Coleman2 hours ago

Won't Practice On Wednesday
Amari Cooper2 hours ago

To Practice On Wednesday
Drake London2 hours ago

Still Day-To-Day
Trevor Lawrence2 hours ago

To Be Limited With Sore Shoulder
Adam Svensson3 hours ago

A Risky Play In Mexico
Daniel Berger4 hours ago

Looks To Keep Cuts-Made Streak Alive In Mexico
Tom Hoge5 hours ago

Hopes To Steady The Ship At World Wide Technology Championship
De'Andre Hunter5 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Cameron Payne6 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Brandin Podziemski6 hours ago

Good To Go Wednesday
De'Anthony Melton6 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Andrew Nembhard6 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday
Bradley Beal6 hours ago

Likely To Play On Wednesday
Travis Konecny6 hours ago

Tallies Four Points In Losing Effort
Nathan MacKinnon7 hours ago

Matches Franchise Record With Five Assists
Andrew Peeke7 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury Tuesday
Anthony Mantha7 hours ago

Suffers A Lower-Body Injury
Cale Makar7 hours ago

Exits With Injury Versus Seattle
Dylan Holloway7 hours ago

Taken To Hospital After Being Hit By A Puck
D'Angelo Russell16 hours ago

Likely Good To Go On Wednesday
Austin Reaves16 hours ago

Probable Versus Memphis
Anthony Davis17 hours ago

Questionable Versus Memphis
Caris LeVert18 hours ago

Picks Up A Questionable Tag For Wednesday
Trae Young18 hours ago

Expected To Play Versus The Knicks
Immanuel Quickley18 hours ago

Unlikely To Play On Wednesday
Jamal Murray18 hours ago

Won’t Play Against OKC
P.J. Washington18 hours ago

Won’t Go Against Chicago
San Diego Padres18 hours ago

Padres Nearing Contract Extension With Manager Mike Shildt
Dereck Lively II18 hours ago

Uncertain For Wednesday Night
Jaylen Brown18 hours ago

Still Out On Wednesday
Jazz Chisholm Jr.18 hours ago

Could Be Moved Back To Second Base
18 hours ago

Astros Have Had "Productive" Talks With Alex Bregman
19 hours ago

Rangers Decline 2025 Option On Andrew Chafin
Zion Williamson20 hours ago

Could Miss Wednesday's Game
Jeremy Sochan20 hours ago

To Undergo Surgery
Camilo Doval20 hours ago

Generating Interest
Shohei Ohtani20 hours ago

Undergoes Arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery
Wendell Carter Jr.20 hours ago

To Miss Wednesday's Game
Ronald Acuña Jr.20 hours ago

Ronald Acuna Jr., Spencer Strider Not Expected To Be Ready By Opening Day
Nick Richards20 hours ago

To Miss Some Time
Bo Bichette20 hours ago

Not On The Trade Block
Tee Higgins20 hours ago

Picks Up Another DNP On Tuesday
Zach LaVine20 hours ago

Uncertain For Wednesday's Contest
Ryan Poehling20 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Alexander Romanov21 hours ago

Remains Sidelined Tuesday
Artem Zub21 hours ago

Remains Out On Tuesday
Ty Dellandrea21 hours ago

Ready To Rejoin Action On Tuesday
Jake Walman21 hours ago

Sits As Healthy Scratch On Tuesday
Brayden Point21 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Auston Matthews21 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Chandler Phillips21 hours ago

Attempts To Keep Final-Round Form This Week
Brent Rooker22 hours ago

A's Planning To Keep Brent Rooker
Neal Shipley22 hours ago

Past Five Tournaments Make Him An Interesting DFS Option
Austin Eckroat22 hours ago

Wants To Shake Off Some More Rust In Mexico
Rico Hoey22 hours ago

Needs The Putter To Work In Mexico
J.J. Spaun22 hours ago

Tries To Keep Second Half Rolling In Mexico
Sam Stevens22 hours ago

Hopes To Continue Riding A Hot Putter In Mexico
Erik Van Rooyen22 hours ago

Erik van Rooyen Tries To Defend WWT Title
22 hours ago

Braves Interested In Nathan Eovaldi
Lucas Glover22 hours ago

Well-Rested Heading Into WWT Championship
Ben Griffin22 hours ago

Hopes To Continue Good Form In Mexico
Lamar Jackson23 hours ago

Will Play On Thursday Night
Keith Mitchell23 hours ago

An Unappealing Play At World Wide Technology Championship
Los Angeles Dodgers1 day ago

Dodgers Expected To Be Favorites To Land Roki Sasaki
Mike Williams1 day ago

Steelers Trading For Mike Williams
1 day ago

Cardinals Don't Extend Qualifying Offer To Paul Goldschmidt
Washington Commanders1 day ago

Marshon Lattimore Traded To Washington
1 day ago

Reds Give Nick Martinez A Qualifying Offer
1 day ago

Christian Walker Receives Qualifying Offer From D-Backs
DK Metcalf1 day ago

Seahawks Won't Be Trading DK Metcalf
Detroit Lions1 day ago

Lions Acquire Za'Darius Smith From Browns
Dak Prescott1 day ago

Likely To Go On Injured Reserve
1 day ago

Dodgers Extend Qualifying Offer To Teoscar Hernandez
1 day ago

Willy Adames Receives Qualifying Offer From Brewers
1 day ago

Braves Give Max Fried A Qualifying Offer
1 day ago

Anthony Santander Receives Qualifying Offer
Jonathan Mingo1 day ago

Heading To Dallas
Zack Moss1 day ago

Expected To Miss The Rest Of The Season
Artturi Lehkonen1 day ago

Will Make His Season Debut On Tuesday
Ilya Sorokin1 day ago

Takes On Penguins Tuesday
Khalil Herbert1 day ago

Bengals Acquiring Khalil Herbert From Bears
Jake Allen1 day ago

Posts Second Shutout Of The Season
Jesper Bratt1 day ago

Collects Two Points In Monday's Win
Adrian Kempe1 day ago

Enjoys Another Multi-Point Outing
Darcy Kuemper1 day ago

Continues Point Streak With A Shutout
DeAndre Hopkins1 day ago

Scores Twice In Week 9 Win
Kareem Hunt1 day ago

Finds The End Zone In Overtime
Travis Kelce1 day ago

Catches 14 Passes In Week 9 Win
Cade Otton2 days ago

Leads Tampa In Receiving In Week 9 Loss On Monday
Will Levis2 days ago

Titans Hopeful Will Levis Will Return In Week 10
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Wins At Martinsville And Has Chance To Earn Second Straight Championship
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Penalized At Martinsville, Removed From Championship Four
Jake Allen2 days ago

Faces Oilers On Monday
BOS2 days ago

Tyler Johnson Signs One-Year Deal With Bruins
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Not A Factor At Martinsville And Looks Ahead To Phoenix
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Misses Advancing Through Playoffs Despite Top-Three Finish
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

Has A Solid Top-10 Performance At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Loses Out On Winning At Martinsville
Rose Namajunas2 days ago

Drops Decision Matchup
Erin Blanchfield2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Dustin Stoltzfus2 days ago

Gets First-Round Knockout At UFC Edmonton
Marc-Andre Barriault2 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC Edmonton
Trevin Giles2 days ago

Losses Third Fight In A Row
Mike Malott2 days ago

Wins Decision At UFC Edmonton
NASCAR3 days ago

Speeding Penalty Foils Martin Truex Jr.'s Last Realistic Shot At Winning
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Fails To Advance To Championship 4 But Runs Well
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Earns Best Oval Finish at Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Tentatively In Championship 4 Pending Ruling On Manufacturer Orders
MMA3 days ago

Ariane Lipski Submitted At UFC Edmonton
Jasmine Jasudavicius3 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
Brendson Ribeiro3 days ago

Edges Out Split Decision At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi3 days ago

Falls Short At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Dominates At UFC Edmonton
Daniel Suarez3 days ago

Will Start 20th At Martinsville
Zane Smith3 days ago

Might Be An Underrated Value Play For Martinsville
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Is A Top DFS Recommendation For Martinsville Lineups
Joey Logano3 days ago

Will Be One To Watch At Martinsville
Brad Keselowski3 days ago

Should DFS Players Rely On Brad Keselowski For Martinsville Lineups?
Carson Hocevar3 days ago

Is A Great DFS Option For All Martinsville DFS Lineups
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Is Ty Gibbs Worth Rostering At Martinsville This Week For DFS?
Austin Cindric3 days ago

Could Have A Top-20 Performance At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Might Be Usable Only In DFS Tournaments At Martinsville
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Should DFS Players Roster Chris Buescher At Martinsville?
Alex Bowman3 days ago

Expect A Solid Top-10 Performance From Alex Bowman At Martinsville
Rose Namajunas5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
Erin Blanchfield5 days ago

Returns At UFC Edmonton
Marc-Andre Barriault5 days ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Set To Face Marc-Andre Barriault At UFC Edmonton
Marc-Andre Barriault5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Edmonton
Trevin Giles5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mike Malott5 days ago

Opens Up UFC Edmonton Main Card
Brendson Ribeiro6 days ago

Searching For 1st UFC Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado6 days ago

Drops Down To Light Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Jhonata Diniz6 days ago

Gets Big Step-Up At UFC Edmonton

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP