Michael Bourn (OF, CLE) - Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in AL Only League

OWNED IN: 18% of Fleaflicker Leagues

ANALYSIS: 32. That is the most important number when discussing Michael Bourn. 32 years old. Once upon a time (really only three years ago), Bourn was a high OBP leadoff hitter who routinely stole 40+ bases, leading the league in three consecutive years from 2009-2011. Before he turned 30, Bourn provided your fantasy team with a solid average (.272 through age 29 season), got on base enough to help your team in the runs category, and of course almost single-handedly kept you competitive in stolen bases. Pre-30-year-old Michael Bourn is what fantasy owners hope Billy Hamilton becomes.

Since signing with the Indians prior to the 2013 season, Bourn has only stolen 33 total bases and has been caught a staggering 18 times. His K% has risen, generally an indicator of declining bat speed, and his BABIP has dropped, another strong indicator of declining real speed. This has ultimately resulted in a lower OBP which not only means less opportunities to steal, but also less opportunities to score runs. Bourn got the Opening Day nod in the leadoff spot for the Indians, going 0-4 with a strikeout, and he should stay there all year baring injury, but the skills that once made him a fantasy asset are gone. Bourn's Steamer projection expects a bit of a speed rebound with 18 SB, but the .253 projected average with no power makes Bourn only ownable in AL Only formats.

MY PROJECTION: 450 AB, .250 AVG, 4 HR, 37 RBI, 55 R, 15 SB