RADIO
Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Miami Dolphins as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Throughout this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.
Last year, the Miami Dolphins acted like that insecure middle school kid who picked on his smaller peers. The minute someone told them to pick on someone their own size, they bailed and ran away. In the few cases they didn't run away, they discovered they weren't nearly as tough as they thought. Maybe that doesn't mean anything for fantasy football, but Miami failed to show up against the upper-echelon teams in the NFL, but boy, did they beat the crap out of the lesser teams. The Dolphins have arguably the fastest offense in the NFL, and they can score quickly, but overall, they seem to lack toughness. The offense is essentially unchanged, so it'll be up to them to be more consistent against the elite teams in the NFL.
There are so many places fantasy managers can find ADP rankings, all of which differ to some extent. Be sure to bookmark our fantasy football ADP page for the latest industry consensus ADPs. If you want to invest in your fantasy football leagues, consider subscribing to our premium account. Our premium tools can help you dominate your fantasy leagues. If you'd like to purchase our premium tools at RotoBaller, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Fantasy Football Team Previews
| NFC West | AFC West | NFC South | AFC South | NFC East | AFC East | NFC North | AFC North |
| Rams | Broncos | Saints | Colts | Cowboys | Jets | Lions | Browns |
| Seahawks | Chargers | Buccaneers | Titans | Giants | Patriots | Bears | Ravens |
| 49ers | Raiders | Panthers | Jaguars | Commanders | Bills | Vikings | Bengals |
| Cardinals | Chiefs | Falcons | Texans | Eagles | Dolphins | Packers | Steelers |
Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook
Tua Tagovailoa: QB13, ADP 97
When you look at Tagovailoa's stats for the NFL, you'd think he has to be viewed as one of the best quarterbacks in the league, right? He led the league in passing yards. He was fifth in touchdowns, fourth in pass success rate, second in yards per attempt, and fifth in quarterback rating. However, in a recent article at ESPN, where they interviewed coaches, scouts, and executives about the ten best players at each position, Tagovailoa's name was absent.
A similar dynamic exists about his fantasy value. Despite leading the league in passing yards and finishing fifth in touchdowns, he still ended the season as the QB16 with a 17.2 PPG. Last year, he tied with Daniel Jones, finishing as the QB10 with an 18.4 PPG average. Despite that, his QB1 weekly rate is well below what fantasy managers should expect for someone being drafted as the QB13.
The image above is courtesy of RotoViz and displays his weekly finishes from the past two seasons. As you can see, Tua has finished as a QB2 more often than he has finished as a QB1. Justin Herbert is being drafted behind Tua, and over the past two seasons, he's finished as a QB1 57% of the time. Trevor Lawrence is also being drafted behind Tua, and his QB1 rate in the past two seasons is 55%.
Kirk Cousins' weekly QB1 rate is 56% since 2022. Baker Mayfield finished as a QB1 41% of the time last year with Tampa Bay, the same rate as Tagovailoa. Geno Smith has been a QB1 47% of the time since becoming Seattle's starter in 2022. From 2022-2023, Deshaun Watson has a QB1 weekly finish rate of 42%. Last year, Derek Carr finished as a QB1 41% of the time, and Russell Wilson did it 47% of the time. All of these players are going after Tagovailoa.
The other concern with Tagovailoa is how much his play has fallen off at the end of the year. In 2022, from Weeks 1-10, he was the QB7 with a 20.4 PPG average. From Weeks 11-17, he performed as the QB17 with a 15.2 PPG average. The same thing happened this past year. From Weeks 1-10, he was the QB9 with a 19.2 PPG average. From Weeks 11-17, he was the QB20 with a 14.6 PPG average. Gardner Minshew and Jake Browning were better than him. None of that sounds particularly good, but we'll get to why Tagovailoa could be in store for a big year despite all of this.
Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Tua Tagovailoa could put up some looney tunes numbers in 2024 pic.twitter.com/EiDo3tieO6
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 2, 2024
As mentioned in the tweet above, the Dolphins were playing with a lead for 50% of their offensive drives, which was fourth-best in the NFL. When Miami had just a one-point lead or more, their pass rate was just 48.6%, which was the 13th lowest. However, when we shifted it the other way, Miami was down by just one point or more, and their pass rate shot up to 67.1%, the eighth-highest in such situations.
Why is that important? It's because Miami's defense could be in trouble this upcoming season. Star defensive lineman Christian Wilkins left in free agency. Star pass-rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips were placed on the PUP list due to their seasons last year. Chubb suffered a torn ACL, and Phillips had a torn Achilles. Both injuries could keep both players off the field early in the year.
In Weeks 3, 5-6, 8, 12-13, and 15, the Dolphins won by a combined point total of 283 to 102. Tagovailoa attempted just 20 passes in the fourth quarter in those seven games. In the third quarter of those contests, Tua attempted 57 passes. That means he had attempted just 77 passes for seven halves of football. That's equivalent to 3.5 games, and he threw just 77 passes! During the second half of those seven games, Tua averaged 22 pass attempts per game. The lowest pass attempt per game average last year was 29. Despite this, Tua still led the league in passing yards and had 29 touchdowns. Not to mention, Jaylen Waddle missed four games worth of action last season.
What will his stats look like if the defense gets worse (it will), Waddle is healthy, and they don't have seven completely one-sided blow-out wins on the schedule? However, it is interesting that in Tua's ten "normal" games last year, he averaged 267.4 yards per game, and in their seven blow-out wins, despite hardly throwing the ball in the second half, he still averaged 278.6 yards per game. In the ten other games, he had 13 touchdowns, but in the seven blow-outs, he had 16.
Last year, in seven games against playoff teams, Tua averaged just 227.6 yards per game. He threw eight touchdowns and seven interceptions and averaged just 13.5 fantasy points per game. In the other 11 games against non-playoff teams, Tagovailoa averaged 293.6 yards per game. He threw 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions and averaged 19.0 fantasy points per game. Tua is a bit of a bully. He'll pick on the lesser guys, but he's not good enough to stand up to the big boys. Luckily, the Dolphins have an easy projected schedule for fantasy managers in 2024.
Tua's gaudy box score numbers and the projection of even more passing volume in 2024 aren't enough to keep Tagovailoa off the sell list. His weekly QB1 finish rate is well below what fantasy managers would like to see from someone they're likely selecting as their primary starter. Fantasy managers are better off drafting Jayden Daniels, who has more upside due to his rushing, and pairing him with Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, or Geno Smith later in the draft. Instead of selecting Tagovailoa, fantasy managers should be drafting Trevor Lawrence, and you can read about why here. Over the past two seasons, Tagovailoa has added only 144 rushing yards and zero rushing scores. All of his fantasy scoring is dependent on his arm. His inconsistent nature and lack of consistent weekly upside are enough to sell him at his current price.
Verdict: Sell Tua Tagovailoa
Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook
De'Von Achane: RB8, ADP 21
Raheem Mostert: RB27, ADP 88
Jaylen Wright: RB49, ADP 151
The Miami backfield last year was insane. There's no way around it. Mostert finished as the RB3 with a 17.0 half-PPR PPG average, and Achane was RB4 with a 16.1 half-PPR PPG average. That just doesn't happen. We don't see two running backs from the same team finish in the top five. Not in 2024. They accomplished the feat with incredible efficiency and, if we're honest, some good luck. Last year, Achane and Mostert combined for 18.5 expected touchdowns. They ended up scoring 32. Mostert was +8.0 in touchdowns over expectation, and Achane was +5.5.
Fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting both players to smash in a similar fashion two years in a row. Their combined efficiency should be expected to decrease because they were both out of this world last year. Below is a table displaying their efficiency stats based on running backs who received 100 carries for the rushing stats. Only running backs with 30 targets were included in the receiving stats.
| Statistic | Achane | Mostert |
| Yards Per Carry | 7.7 (1st) | 4.84 (7th) |
| Explosive Run Rate | 12.6% (1st) | 6.7% (6th) |
| MTF/Attempt | 0.31 (2nd) | 0.25 (11th) |
| YAC/Attempt | 3.67 (1st) | 3.18 (4th) |
| Success Rate | 54.4% (6th) | 55.0% (4th) |
| Yards Per Touch | 7.7 (1st) | 5.1 (17th) |
| Yards Per Route Run | 1.32 (19th) | 0.89 (36th) |
| Yards Per Target | 5.47 (20th) | 5.47 (20th) |
| YAC/Reception | 9.85 (5th) | 8.72 (16th) |
| MTF/Reception | 0.41 (5th) | 0.52 (1st) |
The season Achane put together was historic. Yes, he got hurt and missed some games. Yes, it's somewhat of a small sample. That is all true, yet ignoring what Achane has accomplished is impossible. You can try to write it off if you want to, but that comes with severe consequences - missing out on one of the league's best, young, and dynamic running backs. Based on Achane's current positional ADP, fantasy managers are not too concerned about regression or injuries, and rightfully so; his upside is of the league-winning variety.
De'Von Achane's 1.36 Fantasy Points Per Opportunity is the highest mark in the PlayerProfiler Data Analysis database other than Alvin Kamara's 1.41 in his 2017 rookie season👀
Are you buying him in Dynasty?📢
(Min. 100 carries.) pic.twitter.com/CfIcQ756EC
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) July 9, 2024
Achane struggled with injuries last year, starting as early as the offseason. That caused him to miss part of training camp, barely playing the season's first three weeks. However, Achane is now in his second season and is coming off one of the better rookie seasons we've seen for a running back. While being concerned about the injury history is understandable, fantasy managers are also baking on an increased role for Achane now that he's in his second season. Players as dynamic and efficient as Achane almost always see their workload increase.
De'Von Achane just had the most efficient rookie season ever, and could well be the next Alvin Kamara.
Among rookie RBs drafted Rounds 1-3 who outperformed their weighted opportunity by +2.5 PPG or more:
- 5/5 had a volume increase in Year 2
- 4/5 topped 20 PPG in Year 2 pic.twitter.com/t72wT3Q8Fr
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 12, 2024
It certainly doesn't hurt that Achane plays for one of the most creative offensive play-callers in the NFL. Mike McDaniel does an excellent job of utilizing his players in a way that best suits their skill set. Other coaches often fall into the trap of fitting circular pegs into square holes, refusing to deviate from what they've always done, not McDaniel. He formulates his offense to his players, allowing him to get the best out of them. Achane is a home run waiting to happen. He's explosive in space, and the slightest bit of open grass can turn into a track meet. McDaniel has even bigger plans for Achane now that he's no longer a rookie.
De'Von Achane hype from @WingfieldNFL (top MIA beat) on a recent pod:
"My god, De'Von Achane is going to have a monster year. This might be the next Christian McCaffrey in terms of overall versatility and usage. This guy is going to be a freaking superstar."
Full quote👇 pic.twitter.com/CGCRrdSboo
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) July 6, 2024
If one thing could have held Achane back last season, it was his limited utilization around the goal line. We've already touched on how Achane scored touchdowns well above his expected rate. Still, his weighted opportunities were not as high as fantasy managers would have liked and certainly not to the level that would allow him to pay off at his given price. However, given his insane efficiency level, he doesn't need the same workload as other running backs because he's proven he can do more with less. I encourage everyone to read the article attached to the post below to get an even more in-depth look at why Achane is so appealing this season.
Content will be sporadic through this weekend as I relax on an island.
Your homework while I’m on vacation is to buy as much De’Von Achane as you possibly can.
(Free article linked below) pic.twitter.com/6VV4BobIDd
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 22, 2024
Mostert is a 32-year-old running back who has been in the NFL for nine seasons and has played in 10 or more games five times. He's only played 12 or more games three times, two coming in 2022 and 2023. Betting on Mostert to get hurt is falling into the gambler's fallacy. He rarely plays an entire season, but he's played 15 games in the past two seasons, so he's bound to get hurt this year.
That isn't true, but ignoring that possibility -- maybe even probability -- is impossible. While Achane was the more efficient player last season and is likely to see his role increase even further, there was one area in which Mostert dominated Achane, and it's an area that neither of them has any control over - scoring opportunities. The table below is based on the seven games in which Achane and Mostert played 35% of the snaps.
| Statistic | Achane | Mostert |
| % of Carries Inside the 5 | 29.4% | 70.6% |
| % of Carries Inside the 10 | 34.5% | 58.6% |
| % of Carries Inside the 20 | 38.3% | 46.8% |
| Carries Per Game | 10.8 | 12.1 |
| Targets Per Game | 4.3 | 2.8 |
| Target Share | 13.9% | 9.3% |
| Half-PPR PPG | 20.3 | 16.6 |
| Expected Half-PPR PPG | 12.8 | 13.0 |
| Weighted Opportunities Per Game | 11.7 | 13.0 |
As you can see from the two tables above, this one here and the one further up, Mostert was also really good last season! He was also one of the top 10 most efficient running backs last season, and he got 70.6% of the team's carries in the seven games where Achane and Mostert each played 35% of the snaps. It's wild that he finished as the RB3. Miami didn't change anything about their backfield, and Mostert is being drafted as the RB27. If he stays healthy, it's hard to imagine him not paying off at that current price, even factoring in a more prominent role for Achane in year two.
However, that's where the risk comes in for Mostert. We've already discussed Mostert's +8 touchdowns over expectation. We should expect that to regress to the mean or at least not be so positive. His efficiency as a 32-year-old running back, especially one who has never been an elite running back, should be expected to regress. It's one thing to expect Derrick Henry, who has always been elite, to remain elite. Considering his age, it's another thing to expect a one-hit-wonder like Mostert to do so.
Then there's the injury risk. Granted, Achane struggled to stay healthy last year, but Mostert carries even more risk. That's attributed to his age and his long-standing injury profile. Due to all of these reasons, fantasy managers are skeptical about paying a hefty price, and that's smart. Mostert is well on the wrong side of 30 and has one of the most dynamic running backs in the league nipping at his heels, looking for a more significant role.
Mostert's price is fair considering his upside, but I'd sooner pass on Mostert just because of some of the risk factors. As far as Achane, his price is high. Fantasy managers are already baking a larger workload into his acquisition cost, and rightfully so. However, taking him over Travis Etienne, Derrick Henry, Isiah Pacheco, and Rachaad White, all of whom might have 100-125 more touches than Achane, is, at the very least, not ideal. Due to his upside, his price is fair, but it also carries some risk. That brings us to Jaylen Wright; this guy is another athletic freak. He ran a 4.38 forty-yard dash at the NFL Combine at 210 pounds. He's big, he's fast, and he's quick. He's everything Mike McDaniel wants in an offensive playmaker.
Jaylen Wright scored a 9.75 out of 10.00 on his RAS score.
Wright ranks 44th out of 1745 RB's from 1987 to 2024. His 11'2" broad jump is the 2nd longest ever recorded by a running back at the NFL Combine.
First 5 yards of the 40 yard dash:
➖Jaylen Wright: 15.16 MPH
➖De'von… pic.twitter.com/lfml6NReNt— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) March 2, 2024
Last year, 157 running backs received 100 carries. Wright finished second with a 7.4-yard per-carry average. He was fifth in yards after contact per attempt at 4.35. Out of this 157-size sample, Wright was 93rd in total carries with 136. However, he still finished 50th (!!!) in terms of total missed tackles forced. Even more astonishing, despite being 93rd in total carries, he finished 20th with 35 carries totaling ten yards or more. He finished his final season at Tennessee with 136 carries, 1,010 yards, and four touchdowns. He also had 25 targets, 22 receptions, and 141 receiving yards.
Given his athleticism and prospect profile, fantasy managers should expect Wright to have a decent role if Achane or Mostert miss time. That's not only because of his speed and potential but because Achane, at 188 pounds, will not take on a three-down, workhorse back workload. With Mostert, considering his age and injury history, McDaniel will likely be hesitant to put too much on his plate, either.
That means, if either player were to miss time, Wright could be looking at a workload of 8-10 touches per game. Considering the injury history of both players, Wright's athletic profile, and the insane efficiency both running backs posted last season, Wright is a name fantasy managers should be targeting. He's incredibly cheap, but if either player were to miss time, Wright would provide RB3 value.
Verdict: Fair Price on De'Von Achane, Fair Price on Raheem Mostert (slight sell), Buy Jaylen Wright
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook
Tyreek Hill: WR2, ADP 3
Jaylen Waddle: WR16, ADP 28
Odell Beckham Jr.: WR86, ADP 222
Due to injuries to Hill and Waddle and multiple blowout games, it's a little tricky to get a handle on exactly how these two players meshed when they were on the field at the same time. Last season, there were eight games where Hill and Waddle had snap counts within 10 of each other. Below is a table where you can see their stats. As you can see, Hill was on another level, but Waddle's stats are also excellent.
| Player | Routes | TS | TPRR | TPG | RPG | ReYPG | AY Share | YPRR | YPT | TDs | Half-PPR PPG | Expected PPG |
| T, Hill | 227 | 27.0% | 33.0% | 9.5 | 6.5 | 113.6 | 42.5% | 4.00 | 11.9 | 9 | 21.5 | 18.7 |
| J, Waddle | 210 | 20.6% | 28.0% | 7.2 | 5.1 | 72.4 | 29.7% | 2.76 | 9.9 | 2 | 11.4 | 14.0 |
Looking at every receiver who played at least six games and had at least 50 targets, Waddle's yard-per-route run average of 2.76 would have tied for eighth with Puka Nacua. He left early in multiple games, negatively affecting some of his statistics. However, in the eight games above, when Hill and Waddle played roughly the same number of stats, Waddle's 72.4 yards per game average ranked 16th. The biggest problem for Waddle is his lack of involvement inside the red zone.
Jaylen Waddle played every game in 2021 and 2022
2021: Then-rookie record 104 receptions
2022: Leads NFL with 18 yards per reception, nearly 1,400 receiving yards
2023: Misses 3 games due to injury, leaves 2 others early, still has more than 70 receptions and 1,000 yards…
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) July 14, 2024
For the 2023 season, Hill had 44 red zone targets to Waddle's 22. Hill also had 12 end zone targets to Waddle's five. Hill is doubling Waddle up once the Dolphins get into scoring range. That's a major problem for Waddle's upside in 2024. However, his 28% target per route run rate in the eight games above would have ranked 10th, tied with Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, and Stefon Diggs.
Due to Hill's incredible season, Waddle can sometimes be forgotten, but fantasy managers are wisely drafting him as a mid-WR2. As previously discussed under Tua, we should expect the Dolphins' total number of pass attempts to increase this season. Last year, they finished 20th in that statistic. We should also be expecting Waddle to play more snaps. Waddle played only 55.6% of the team's snaps this past season after logging a 74.3% snap count in 2022. Waddle finished 25th in receiving yards, but just 72nd in routes run. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize what could happen in 2024 if Miami is forced to pass more frequently in the fourth quarter and Waddle stays healthy.
Wilson ran 225 routes in the fourth quarter, the most among receivers. Hill finished 86th with just 80 routes. He was tied with Jason Brownlee and DeVante Parker. Waddle ranked 107th with 63, just behind Trenton Irwin (64). Waddle had 113 yards in the fourth quarter, roughly 11.1% of his season total. Hill had 135 yards or roughly 7.5%. We previously discussed the impact of those seven blow-out games for Tagovailoa in the second half, but naturally, they had a similar impact on the receivers.
Tyreek Hill had NINE games of 20+ fantasy points in 2023. Since 2017, only 2021 Cooper Kupp had more. 😮 pic.twitter.com/Fz4XQ5CIwY
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) July 22, 2024
The statistics from the first half of games are just as wild. Hill had a 75.4% route share, ranking 45th among receivers with at least six games played. Waddle's was 67.8%, ranking 63rd. That was due to injuries for both players throughout the year. Regarding total routes run in the first quarter, Hill ranked 30th with 248, and Waddle was 56th with 196. Despite this, Hill was first in targets (98), and Waddle was 13th (66). Hill was second in receptions (73), and Waddle was 12th (49).
Based on receiving yards, Hill finished second in yards with 1,119, and Waddle was ninth with 708. If both players are a bit more lucky in terms of their health and playing time, and Miami doesn't have seven monster blow-outs where they don't need to pass in the second half, we could see both players' have even bigger seasons than last year. This is especially true for Waddle.
| Player | Routes | Route Share | Targets | Receptions | Yards |
| T, Hill | 444 (42nd) | 76.0% (45th) | 168 (3rd) | 119 (2nd) | 1,799 (1st) |
| J, Waddle | 346 (72nd) | 67.4% (62nd) | 104 (30th) | 72 (26th) | 1,014 (25th) |
The kind of stats in the table above isn't supposed to happen. They don't make any logical sense. It's like a running back finishing with only 150 carries but still finishing with 1,500 yards to lead the league in rushing. Here's some context for those routes for you: CeeDee Lamb ran 603. Stefon Diggs ran 573. Davante Adams ran 542. Chris Olave ran 515. A.J. Brown ran 526. Michael Pittman Jr. ran 526. Mike Evans ran 511, Amari Cooper ran 507, George Pickens ran 507, and D.K. Metcalf ran 502. I'm unsure what to say if you're not blown away. When we get away from the counting stats and focus on some of the advanced statistics that are more average-based, it's just incredible what Hill did last season. Check it out below:
- Fourth in total air yards (1,865)
- Second in air yard share (44.2%)
- First in target share (31.1%)
- First in target per route run (38%)
- First in team market share of yards (40.2%)
- First in yards per route run (4.05)
- Fifth in yards per target (10.7)
- 18th in yards per reception (15.1)
- 19th in yards after the catch per reception (5.55)
- Fourth in team market share of touchdowns (44.8%)
- Sixth in missed tackles forced per reception (0.26)
- First in first downs per route run (0.187)
Hill's price is fair. The only two players that should be drafted ahead of him are Christian McCaffrey and CeeDee Lamb. Waddle's price is also fair. It may seem high considering where he finished last season, but there is plenty of upside in this offense for him, as demonstrated above. Fantasy managers need him to stay healthy and for Miami to be in more competitive games this season. As mentioned, their defense will likely take a step back, which could benefit their fantasy football values. That brings us to Beckham.
Beckham is far from the player he used to be. However, last year with Baltimore, he posted decent numbers. He finished with a 14.9% target share, a 23.0% target per route run rate, and a 2.10 yard per route run average. Those numbers indicate he can still play. He missed three games and only ran 269 routes (53.4% route share). Due to that, he finished with just 62 targets, 35 receptions, and 565 yards. However, Cedrick Wilson Jr. ran 224 routes, and Braxton Berrios ran 279. There is an opportunity to be had as Miami's No. 3 receiver regarding snaps and routes.
Hill and Waddle are still going to dominate the target share and target volume, which leaves OBJ as a boom-or-bust player who is going to have to make due on limited opportunities. However, he still displayed that ability last season. If nothing else, Beckham offers plenty of contingency value if Hill or Waddle miss time. Given his draft cost, which is past the 17th round, taking OBJ in the 18th or 19th round makes plenty of sense if your draft even goes that deep.
The non-Hill and Waddle receivers combined for 109 targets, 70 receptions, 858 yards, and seven touchdowns. OBJ isn't going to have that much work as the No. 4 and No. 5 receivers will see some work, and with improved health from Hill and Waddle, they could eat into that pie, too. It does show that there's enough there for OBJ to have some spike weeks, and as an 18th or 19th-round pick, along with his contingent value, it makes OBJ a worthwhile pick that late. His price is fair, given his age and history, but he's a player to throw some darts on that late in your draft. However, in most 16 and 17-round drafts, which are typical, OBJ likely won't be selected.
Verdict: Fair Price on Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Odell Beckham Jr.
Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook
Jonnu Smith: TE24, ADP 186
Smith is an exciting player in this Miami offense, which is predicated on getting their players into open space and letting them make a play. This is something that Smith excels at. Despite finishing 19th in total targets (69) among tight ends, Smith still tied for second with two receptions of over 40 yards. He was among only 11 tight ends to register a 100-yard receiving game last season. Smith can make big plays. That skill set could be utilized even more under Mike McDaniel this year than Arthur Smith last year.
Among 23 tight ends with at least 50 targets, Smith finished third in yards per target (8.3), third in yards per reception (11.6), third in yards after the catch per reception (7.1), and fifth in receptions per broken tackle (8.3). This isn't the first time Smith has displayed this kind of upside after the catch. In his last six seasons in the NFL, Smith has averaged over seven yards after the catch per reception in five. He's also recorded a reception per broken tackle rate of under nine four times and under 15 five times.
He has displayed time and time again that once he gets the ball into his hands, he's a weapon and incredibly difficult to bring down. Imagine that skill set in McDaniel's offense, where he'll draw up plays to get Smith in space and the ball quickly. It's exciting, especially considering how cheap his draft cost is.
Due to the two alpha receivers the Dolphins have, Smith needs to make the most of his opportunities. That's because he has never been a big target-earner in his career. He has just three seasons with a double-digit target share and just one over 15% (15.3% in 2020). His route participation rate has undoubtedly impacted some of that because it's impossible to earn targets if you're not on the field. Smith has never cleared a 70% route participation rate and has been held below 50% on four occasions. One was his rookie year, and two others were while he was lost in the New England offense. However, he's never been a full-time player, which should create skepticism.
The only option behind Smith on the roster is Durham Smythe. He's been in the league for six years but has established a reputation as a strong blocking tight end. He's never had more than any of the following statistics in any season: 45 targets, 35 receptions, or 375 yards. Given that, fantasy managers should feel confident that Smith will at least be utilized as their primary pass-catching tight end, which should allow Smith to break that 70% route participation rate for the first time in his career. He was close last year at 69.4%.
His target-per-route run should give fantasy managers even more optimism. In six seasons, Smith has posted a target per route run rate of over 22% in five. The other were 18.8% (2023) and 17.3% (2018). His other five seasons included target-per-route run rates of 23.4% (2017), 22.0% (2019), 22.6% (2020), 30.6% (2021), and 26.2% (2022). This past season, Smith finished 12th among tight ends in yards per route run at 1.58. His 6.0 half-PPR PPG average ranked 20th last year among tight ends. However, the quarterback play in Atlanta did not do anyone any favors.
Last year, Atlanta finished 26th in total points and 17th in total yards. Their passing offense was even worse. The Falcons ranked 25th in pass attempts, 22nd in passing yards, and 26th in passing touchdowns. Miami finished second in total points and first in total yards. Their passing offense ranked 20th in attempts, first in yards, and fourth in touchdowns. Granted, Hill and Waddle are significantly better than Kyle Pitts and Drake London, but the weekly upside is much higher in this kind of offense.
Smith's upside will always be capped by his lack of target-earning due to Hill and Waddle, but he has the ability, skill set, offense, and quarterback to surprise people and finish as a mid-TE2. Without an injury to one of their top two receivers, finishing in the top 12 is a long shot, but Smith could end up solidly outplaying his ADP and finishing as a mid-TE2 where he's routinely being utilized as a streamer. Fantasy managers should be buying his skill set in McDaniel's offense.
Verdict: Buy Jonnu Smith
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