RADIO
"Members of Project Mayhem have no name. Through his death, he had a name. His name is Matt Shoemaker. His body was buried in the back of the Paper Street House."
OK, I confess to a lie. The body of Matt Shoemaker is not buried in the back of the Paper Street House - at least not the 2016 body. But the whereabouts of the 2015 Matt Shoemaker are still unknown and could very well reside six feet under the aforementioned house. For current and prospective Shoemaker owners, the hope is that last season's version stays buried. Thankfully, I'm here to tell you why it will, and why the 2016 footwear-cobbler is here to stay.
But our story starts in the Year of our Lord, Two Thousand and Fourteen. A young man out of Eastern Michigan University, trying to navigate the murky waters through which all rookie pitchers must tread. A young man that pitched with such aplomb as to take the majors by storm - a storm to the tune of a 3.04 ERA, a sterling 1.07 WHIP, and 124 glorious strikeouts in 136 innings pitched, all leading to a second place finish in the AL Rookie of the Year race. So, perhaps a moderate squall would be a better way to put it. Nonetheless, the makings of a contributor were there and those who noticed, rejoiced - or at least offered up a gentlemanly golf-clap. Rah-rah. Yes, indeed.
But upon the turn of the calendar to 2015, the chickens came home to roost, as the league seemed to figure out the Matt Shoemaker riddle. The ERA dipped to 4.46, the WHIP slid to 1.26 and the amount of balls leaving the yard shot through the stratosphere, literally.
And then the calendar turned again - they have a way of doing that, those fickle beasts - and Mr. Shoemaker trotted out an April that was eerily and depressingly similar to 2015. Not that we noticed - he had shown nothing the prior season for the radar to even be activated. But then May hit - there's that pesky calendar again - and as the month progressed, we saw a faint glimmer reflecting off the cowcatcher of the Matt Shoemaker gravy train. And upon sifting through the debris, weighing each piece of shattered wreckage as one weighs the decision of whether to power through that last bit of pasta primavera or request a doggy-bag, we discovered gold - gold in the form of a man - no, god - that could guide the sleigh to the finish line and push us ahead of the veritable slew of would-be challengers.
But what has happened in 2016, and more specifically, the months of May, June, and July, that indicate such a grand revival? Why, I'm glad you asked. It's simple. Shoemaker threw all caution to the wind and substantially increased the use of his splitter - a splitter that is so effective, the tides don't even come in on days when he pitches within 100 miles of any coastline. Forget the shoe-cobbler nickname, we're dealing with Poseiden, God of the Sea, and Master of the Split-Finger Fastball.
Let's take a look at the graph below to determine just how much Shoemaker is relying on his splitter.
Please direct your attention to that regal, purple line representing the elite pitch in question. What we see is an abrupt spike in mid-May that carries consistently to our present day, culminating in a season-high usage in his most recent outing that saw him twirl a complete game shutout with 13 strikeouts. Thirteen! Of course, the spike in usage is pointless if the pitch is not effective, but since his May 16th start, the splitter has generated an elite whiff rate of 22.57%. Even when the batter does manage to put this difficult offering into play, it results in a ground ball 46.67% of the time, leading to a .182 batting average against this pitch.
So we've established the change to the pitch array and its general effectiveness. Let's dig into additional results of that alteration. How about K/9? Additional strikeouts are always a good thing and the Pre-Splitter-Heavy Hurler, also known as PSHH (which doubles as the sound made for those owners that miss this buy-now opportunity), clocked in at 6.97 in the month of April, only to see this number spike to 10.58 and 9.64 in the following splitter-heavy months. Those are elite numbers - a trend that will continue as you press forth.
What about control? Certainly someone that rocks the strikeout ratios that Shoemaker does, would issue more free passes that can be stomached, right? Actually, no. The man is pinpoint with his precision, carrying a BB/9 ratio that bordered near 1.0 in the months of May and June and rose slightly to a still solid rate of 1.93 through the first half of July. Keeping in mind that a BB/9 ratio of 3.0 is average and anything around 1.5 is considered excellent, we may have something divine on our hands here.
In the words of the late Billy Mays, "But wait, there's more!"
The improvements have also carried over into the batted ball profile. The line drive rate in April clocked in at a robust 33.8% - a number that dropped to 23.5% and 21.4% in May and June, respectively, since ramping up the splitter usage. We've also seen a rise to the Soft Contact rate, a decrease to the Hard Hit rate, and a ground ball percentage that continues to push upwards. All-in-all, the signs are present for a potential ace in the making and worst case you have yourself a guy that you can play the match-ups with and expect solid ratios and high strikeout returns. The ownership levels are still far too low for this pitcher that has the upside to carry a team on his back down the fantasy baseball stretch. Make the move to acquire him now, and see just how nicely the shoe fits.
