RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 130
CURRENT ADP: ~155 overall
ANALYSIS: Matt Chapman is one of my favorite targets at 3B this year if you sit out the early feeding frenzy that involves plenty of players being pushed up the draft board ahead of where they should be going. Chapman's plus defense will keep him on the field essentially every day, and I love the changes he made in 2022.
For starters, the pull rate was the second-highest rate of Chapman's career behind only the COVID-shortened 2020 season where he hit .232 with 10 home runs in just 37 games. He also had an 18% barrel rate that season and a career-high 22.2% HR/FB rate. So while it is certainly a small sample size, going back to an approach that mirrors that season is nice.
Another change I liked is that Chapman had the lowest O-Swing% of his career, cutting it down to 19.3%, and had the highest contact rate and zone contact rate since 2019. So Chapman is becoming a bit more selective and focused on pulling the ball for power when he does swing, which is useful for fantasy.
If the pull rate is his new normal, as it seems, then a slight shift in being more lift-focused could unlock even more power for Chapman. Will he put together a stretch like that for an entire season? Unlikely, but could he push for a .240 average and 30+ home runs again? Yeah, I can absolutely see that.
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