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BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 240
CURRENT ADP: ~255 overall
ANALYSIS: In 2020, Oakland A’s outfielder/designated hitter Mark Canha posted a .246/.387/.408 slash line to go with five home runs and a very impressive 33 RBI in 243 plate appearances. While his RBI total, fifteenth in all of MLB, and OBP were among the league’s best in 2020, his power output massively declined after 2019. In 2019, Canha blasted 26 HR in 410 at-bats. By comparison, if extrapolated over 500 at-bats, his 2020 campaign was equivalent to a forgettable 13 HR season.
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Looking at his hitting metrics more closely, we notice that Canha’s power metrics and on-base skill set have, generally, gradually increased each season, including in 2020. In fact, other than a very slight decline in his overall hard-hit and barrel rate in 2020, Canha saw a 5.9% increase in his line drive rate. He also saw an increase in his exit velocity (up to 89.7 degrees from 89.1 degrees in 2019), and a 7.2% decrease in his groundball rate when compared to 2019.
According to Nick Mariano’s Expected Draft Values research, a hitter being taken around pick 260 should produce a .229 average, 28 HR, 62 runs, and 69 RBI. With playing time concerns mitigated, Canha should be able to meet the expected 28 HR total and surpass the other expected statistics particularly if his power positively regresses in line with his underlying metrics and 2019 campaign. Canha should provide managers with great value for a player currently being selected after round 20 in mixed-league formats, especially in OBP leagues.
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