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Mark Kieffer's report on March Madness bubble teams as of 3/14/24. He analyzes recent CBB games, and predicts what is needed to secure NCAA tournament bids.
It's March Madness season while we are in the thick of conference tournament season, and just three days away from Selection Sunday on March 17, 2024. This is the latest bubble update as of March 14, 2024.
One of the most prominent metrics that the Selection Committee uses in determining the bracket is the NCAA's NET ranking. The NET ranking uses the strength of schedule, scoring margins, offensive and defensive efficiencies, and locations of the games to rank the 347 Division I teams that have participated in this NCAA college basketball season. Determining what quadrant a game falls into depends on the team's opponent's NET ranking.
- Quadrant 1: Home game opponent ranking 1-30, Neutral site 1-50, Away game 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home game 31-75, Neutral site 51-100, Away game 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home game 76-160, Neutral site 101-200, Away game 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home game 161-353, Neutral site 201-353, Away game 241-353
Below is a list of teams that most experts consider on the bubble, their resumés, and what the upcoming week looks like for those teams. I am no bracketologist, so I am going off of the consensus based on several experts out there.
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Teams That Were On The Bubble Report But Should Be In:
Colorado State, Florida Atlantic, TCU
I never want to say anything is a lock but these three teams look to be in. All three teams are in 100 percent of brackets in the industry right now.
Colorado State has a three game win streak, 37th in NET, facing Nevada today in the Mountain West Tournament.
Florida Atlantic is 37th in NET, three game win streak, AAC tournament hasn't started yet.
TCU is 41st in NET, have been up and down, faces Houston in the Big 12 Tournament tonight after beating Oklahoma in Round 1.
Teams That Were On The Bubble Report That Are Most Likely Out:
Pittsburgh, Kansas State, Providence, Iowa, Utah
It's not looking good for these teams but they are not 100% out yet
Pittsburgh faces Wake Forest in the ACC tournament in a de facto elimination game from the bubble. Wake Forest is in just 8 percent of brackets in the industry while Pittsburgh is in 5 percent of brackets in the industry.
Kansas State beat Texas in the Big 12 tournament and face Iowa State today, a team they beat just last week. If they can beat Iowa State again today, they will find themselves back on the bubble. That win alone is likely not enough to get in but puts them back in the picture.
Providence doesn't have the resume with being 62nd in NET. Wins over Marquette and Creighton have them in the picture but they are an inconsistent team. They face Creighton today in the Big East Tournament.
Iowa does not look like an NCAA team based on being 59th in NET, but the ESPNs and CBSs of the world keep putting them in the picture. I think it would take a lot happening plus a Big Ten tournament run. Could easily lose to Ohio State today and be out of it altogether. They need help but likely have to win a couple games this weekend too.
Utah was on the bubble report last week. Then they went ahead and lost to both Oregon State and Oregon to take them off the bubble altogether. They play Colorado tonight in the Pac 12 tournament.
Teams On The Right Side Of the Bubble:
Seton Hall, Michigan State
These are teams that have been looking like NCAA tournament teams for most of the year.
Seton Hall is in 100 percent of brackets out there. They are in a big game against Saint John's to open up the Big East tournament. This is must-watch game tonight. They are just 64th in NET but wins over UConn, Marquette, and Saint John's are big for their resume.
Michigan State is also in 100 percent of brackets. They have lost to Iowa, Ohio State, and Indiana down the stretch. If they lose to Minnesota, they could be out. They are in, but downward sliding.
Rest Of The Bubble:
Indiana State
Resume: 27-6 record, 1-4 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2, 10-0 vs. Q3, and 12-2 vs. Q4 teams. 27th in NET
They are done playing as they lost the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Championship. They are 27th in NET, above teams like Texas and Texas Tech who should be in the tournament. Being in a mid-major and not being the automatic qualifying team hurts. It will be interesting to see how they end up after this weekend.
Status: Last Four In. Trending Neutral.
St. Louis on rewind🔁🎥#MarchOn | #Kaizen pic.twitter.com/YMWt649rMp
— Indiana State Basketball (@IndStBasketball) March 13, 2024
Colorado
Resume: 22-9 record, 2-5 vs. Q1, 6-4 vs. Q2, 7-0 vs. Q3, and 7-0 vs. Q4 teams. 26th in NET
They are now on a six game winning streak and favored against Utah in the Pac 12 tournament tonight. This is a team that has talent and I thought had an outside shot at winning the Pac 12 this year. They are peaking at the right time. They are in 85 percent of the brackets in the industry right now.
Status: Last Four In. Trending Up.
tourney time
🆚 Utah
🕔 9:30pm MT
📺 FS1
📻 KOA 850AM
📍 Las Vegas, NV pic.twitter.com/fPhXESiJCa— Colorado Men's Basketball (@CUBuffsMBB) March 14, 2024
Virginia
Resume: 22-9 record, 2-7 vs. Q1, 7-2 vs. Q2, 7-0 vs. Q3 and 6-0 vs. Q4 teams. 52nd in NET
They are a program I would not put in the tournament if it were up to me. They are 52nd in NET, just 2-7 vs. Quad 1 opponents and is 3-4 in their last seven games. That said, they are in 91 percent of the brackets in the industry so I would say they are on the right side of the bubble right now.
Status: Last Four In. Trending Down.
🧡💙 A memory that will last forever!#GoHoos pic.twitter.com/Tggpdw5fKG
— Virginia Men's Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) March 11, 2024
Saint John's
Resume: 19-12 record, 4-9 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, and 7-0 vs. Q4 teams. 39th in NET
They are on a five game winning streak and in a must win situation in the Big East tournament tonight. They lost to Seton Hall twice this season: 80-65 on the road and 68-62 at home. This is THE GAME to watch tonight.
Status: Last Four In. Trending Up.
Let the talkers talk.
We'll do our talking on the court. #RedStorm #AllStormNoFront pic.twitter.com/2xQbfaTGPX
— St. John's Men’s Basketball (@StJohnsBBall) March 14, 2024
New Mexico
Resume: 22-9 record, 3-6 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, 6-1 vs. Q3, and 9-1 vs. Q4 teams. 25th in NET
New Mexico has a mixed opinion in the industry. They are in 51 percent of the brackets. ESPN has them among the first four out. CBS has them as a last four in. They play a Boise State team tonight in the Mountain West Tournament that they have lost two twice previously this season. Winning that game will help.
Status: First four out. Trending Up.
Griddying into the quarters pic.twitter.com/0aY8UzKk9N
— Lobo Basketball (@UNMLoboMBB) March 14, 2024
Villanova
Resume: 18-14 record, 4-10 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2, 2-3 vs. Q3, and 6-0 vs. Q4 teams. 40th in NET
I don't now why we are doing this with Villanova. They were a very fortunate break away from being eliminated from the Big East Tournament by a three win DePaul team. They have Marquette today and that is a must win for them to want to be on the bubble. They would make for a better NIT team in my opinion.
Status: First four out. Trending Down.
JUSTIN. MOORE. @YooJustoo x #LetsMarchNova pic.twitter.com/3Bj7NpHdNY
— Villanova MBB (@NovaMBB) March 14, 2024
Texas A&M
Resume: 18-13 record, 5-6 vs. Q1, 6-3 vs. Q2, 2-4 vs. Q3, and 5-0 vs. Q4 teams. 47th in NET
A month ago, Texas A&M was looking good with recent wins over Florida and Tennessee. Then they lost five games in a row. Most recently, they have won three games in a row. They have to win today in the SEC tournament over Ole Miss. Knocking off Kentucky in the next round would likely get them there.
Status: First four out. Trending Up
GET UP. IT’S GAME DAY. 🕺#GigEm x #SECTourney pic.twitter.com/MYcyiBqU5p
— Texas A&M Basketball (@aggiembk) March 14, 2024
Wake Forest
Resume: 20-12 record, 1-7 vs. Q1, 8-4 vs. Q2, 5-1 vs. Q3 and 5-0 vs. Q4 teams. 36th in NET
Last week I mentioned that beating Clemson at home would help them solidify their resume. They did that and it did. This is a team that has more talent than their resume shows. The 1-7 record vs. Q1 teams is not great. They play Pittsburgh tonight in a big game as well and have to win that to stay in consideration.
Status: First four out. Trending Up
𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙘𝙤𝙣 𝘿𝙪𝙗𝙨 𝙞𝙣 𝘿.𝘾. 🎩 pic.twitter.com/PUg9gwTSxL
— Wake Forest Men's Basketball (@WakeMBB) March 14, 2024
Enjoy the games the rest of the week and it will be fun to see how it all shakes out for Selection Sunday!
