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Well, we finally made it. March Madness 2025 is here! I sincerely hope you all are ready for another year of close games, exciting finishes, and a few crazy upsets.
In addition to all of that, March Madness is also the biggest betting event in the United States. It's estimated that over $3 billion in wagers will be placed throughout the tournament this year. You can probably guess where this article is heading after that statement. I am no different than any other degenerate who enjoys watching college basketball and winning some cash along the way. Today, let's try to do the same for all of you and go over a few plays for the opening round of the 2025 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament.
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Best Bets
#11 North Carolina (-4) vs. #11 San Diego State
The Tarheels managed to make the dance despite having a fairly weak resume, as their only win against a ranked opponent came against the No. 18 ranked UCLA Bruins back in December. San Diego State, however, has a huge win on their resume. The Aztecs scored a 73-70 upset win against Kelvin Sampson's Houston Cougars in an overtime thriller.
SAN DIEGO ST. UPSETS NO. 6 HOUSTON IN AN OVERTIME THRILLER 😱 pic.twitter.com/x8oeP3cYar
— ESPN (@espn) December 1, 2024
North Carolina will have the edge offensively as they rank 22nd in offensive efficiency per KenPom. This fares much better than San Diego State, as they finished 111th in the same metric. However, the Aztecs boast a strong defense, finishing 13th in defensive efficiency and 13th in opponent's points per game. The key could be how well the Aztecs do on the boards, as North Carolina ranks 82nd in rebound rate compared to San Diego State's 191st ranking.
If the Aztecs can limit North Carolina second chance scoring opportunities, they are very much live for the upset. We'll take the points with the better defense and look for San Diego State to take this one down to the wire.
Pick San Diego State +4 (-110) Caesars Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
#8 Gonzaga (-6.5) vs. #9 Georgia
Another year and another WCC Title for the Zags. Mark Few brings another strong Bulldogs team to the NCAA Tournament in 2025. While this year's squad is not quite as strong as some of the ones we've seen in previous seasons, they are just as capable of making a deep run. Gonzaga is arguably the most mis-seeded team in the field, as they finished ninth in KenPom's overall rankings.
They also finished inside the top 10 in offensive efficiency as well as 25th in effective field goal percentage, 18th in rebound rate, and fourth in free-throw percentage. Gonzaga ranks higher than Georgia in a variety of metrics. They should pick up the cover in this game and could give number-one seed Houston a run for their money in the round of 32.
Pick: Gonzaga -6.5 (-110) Caesars Sportsbook
Risk: 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
#5 Michigan (-3.5) vs. #12 UC San Diego
A 5-12 matchup is next on the docket. The Wolverines enter the dance white-hot. They won the Big Ten Tournament yesterday after a 59-53 victory over the Wisconsin Badgers.
Michigan put 'em to sleep 😴 @umichbball pic.twitter.com/T4hNyW2IrD
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) March 16, 2025
While the Wolverines enter the dance with a ton of momentum, they draw a very tough first game. UC San Diego is good and went 30-4 en route to a Big West title. The Tritons can hold their own against Michigan if this turns into a shootout, and they aren't too shabby on defense either, as they finished 30th in defensive efficiency.
UC San Diego also has range as they finished 57th in three-point field goal percentage. Free throws could doom Michigan if this game is close late. The Wolverines only rank 169th in free-throw percentage against UC San Diego's 93rd-place finish.
This feels like a good spot for a classic 12-5 upset, as Michigan could be looking past a small school team following a huge run in the Big Ten tournament. Wolverines head coach Dusty May has been on the other end of many upset victories as he famously led Florida Atlantic to a spot in the 2023 Final Four. May now finds himself on the other side of things, and his team could have trouble in this game.
Pick: UC San Diego +3.5 (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .6 Units to Win .5 Units on UC San Diego +3.5
#7 Saint Mary’s (-4.5) vs. #10 Vanderbilt
Saint Mary's is one of the more slept-on teams in the tournament. They rank 22nd in KenPom's overall rankings, eighth in defensive efficiency, and first in rebound rate. The Gaels finished the season 28-5 but lost to Gonzaga in the WCC Title game. They still earned an at-large bid and got the seventh seed in the East Region.
Vanderbilt is one of 14 SEC teams to make the tournament but finished behind Saint Mary's in defensive efficiency, rebounds, and rebound rate. The Commodores will have the edge offensively, and if this game is close, Saint Mary's free-throw troubles could become an issue.
I don't expect that to be the case, and I believe Saint Mary's is the better team. This line opened at -5.5 for Saint Mary's and has been bet down to the current number. Keep an eye on this line throughout the week. If you like Saint Mary's in this game, you might get an even better number closer to game time.
Pick: Saint Mary's -4.5 (-110) Caesars Sportsbook
Risk .44 Units to Win .4 Units
Longshot Plays
Saint Mary's To Reach the Sweet 16 (+270) DraftKings Sportsbook
If the Gaels successfully get past Vanderbilt like I expect them to, the door is open for a spot in the Sweet 16. A date with No. 2 seed Alabama likely awaits Saint Mary's in the round of 32. It's a big ask, but that is a game Saint Mary's could win as they rebound well and have a better defense than the Crimson Tide.
Risk .2 Units to Win .54 Units
Kansas To Reach The Elite Eight (+550) DraftKings Sportsbook
Assuming Kansas gets past 10-seed Arkansas, they are likely to meet St. John's in the round of 32. The Red Storm boasts an incredibly stout defense, but Kansas also has a strong defense, ranking 11th in defensive efficiency. The Jayhawks offense could be the difference in this game and could help them pull an upset over Rick Pitino and crew.
From there, Kansas would likely need to pull off another upset in the Sweet 16. However, this is the same team that began the season ranked number one in the AP preseason poll. They have a great coach in Bill Self, and this would be the perfect time to put things all together and make a run.
Risk .15 Units to Win .825 Units
Gonzaga To Reach The Final Four (+850) FanDuel Sportsbook
The Zags are a better team than the eighth seed they were given. They should take care of business against Georgia in their opener but have a brutal potential match against Houston in the round of 32. Gonzaga can play Houston tough, and if they hang around in that game, they could score an upset over the Cougars. It wouldn't be the first time Houston was upset this year, as they lost to San Diego State earlier in the season.
If Gonzaga can get past Houston, there is a realistic path to the Final Four. This seems like a good spot to take a flyer.
Risk .1 Units to Win .85 Units
More March Madness Analysis
