RADIO
The 2020 MLB amateur draft takes place later tonight and it will be unlike any draft we’ve seen.
With owners crying poor and minor league systems set to be permanently compressed, the draft has been slashed from the normal 40 rounds to just five — although teams will be able to sign undrafted players as free agents for no more than $20,000. This means we will likely see a lot of high school players opt for the college or junior college routes and some college juniors opt for a senior year — although the pandemic has also put college programs at risk.
This draft, with only five rounds, will put a huge amount of pressure on scouting directors and their departments to get it right. In past drafts, you could find gems in later rounds to help offset the sting of swinging-and-missing on a first or second-round pick. This may be less likely to happen now. The one bit of good news for MLB teams is that this is a fairly deep draft — especially on the college side.
The 2020 MLB Mock Draft
Today, we’re looking at the players I would select based on true baseball talent — not just from a fantasy perspective although in truth there isn't a huge divide from the two perspectives. I’ve spent weeks pouring over video, scouting reports, and data to make my selections for each team as if I were their scouting directors. Next week, we’ll take a look at how the first round actually played out and how those choices could impact the players’ future fantasy values.
I’ve been mock drafting ahead of the amateur draft for well over 10 years now. The 2011 draft was one of my strongest when I advocated for Gerrit Cole first overall, followed by Anthony Rendon and then Trevor Bauer. I broke with the industry consensus in 2012 — along with the Astros, as it turned out — and selected Carlos Correa first overall. Kris Bryant was another great added with the first pick in 2013 as the Astros real pick — Mark Appel — was a huge miss. Below, I’ll list the players I selected in both the 2018 and the 2019 mock drafts.
Below, you'll also see the players that were selected by myself for the listed teams during the 2018 and 2019 mock drafts. It's a fun little way to see how well I've helped (or hurt) your favorite teams over the past three years.
1. Detroit Tigers: Zac Veen, OF, Florida HS
2018 and 2019 Picks: Casey Mize and J.J. Bleday
Let’s shake up things right off the bat. Veen has an advanced bat for his age and projects to hit for both power and average. I love his low-maintenance but potent swing and his 6-foot-4, 190-pound frame, which has room to add additional muscle. I was a huge fan of both Jarred Kelenic and Corbin Carroll in the last two drafts but Veen could be even better. Because he’s not the consensus best player, I can likely save some money for the Tigers with this pick to help with the other four rounds and still deliver the top option much as I did for Houston in 2012 with Carlos Correa.
2. Baltimore Orioles: Austin Martin, OF/3B, Vanderbilt U
2018 and 2019 Picks: Mason Denaburg and Andrew Vaughn
Martin reminds me of Bo Bichette at the plate and with his confidence in the field. He should hit for average, add more home-run muscle as he matures thanks to impressive bat speed, and will also provide some steals. I love the way he attacks the ball and he has been a very good amateur player for a long time. He’d be an exciting player for Baltimore to build around.
3. Miami Marlins: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M U
2018 and 2019 Picks: Jordyn Adams and CJ Abrams
Lacy is a big, strong left-handed starter with power stuff and a chance for four better-than-average offerings. He has an easy delivery and should have better than average command and control in time. His delivery is impressive for someone that throws as hard as he does. There is frontline starter potential here.
4. Kansas City Royals: Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State U
2018 and 2019 Picks: Matthew Liberatore and Adley Rutschman
As the draft approaches, Torkelson is expected to go first overall but I have my reservations — although I didn't hesitate to take right-handed college first baseman in Andrew Vaughn — first overall in my mock draft last year. Torkelson is more physical than Vaughn and has more raw power but he’s also not nearly as natural a hitter. I also fear that the Arizona State slugger will have a significant amount of swing and miss. With everyone, including the bat boys, hitting for power in the MLB these days, Torkelson slides a bit for me because his greatest tool is not as special as it once would have been and I’ll favor more well-rounded players ahead of him. But he’s excellent value at No. 4.
5. Toronto Blue Jays: Max Meyer, RHP, U Minnesota
2018 and 2019 Picks: Logan Gilbert and George Kirby
Things start to get a little harder here because there are a few players that I like at No. 5. I’m torn between Nick Gonzales and Meyer here but I’ll opt for the arm. He’s a smallish right-hander but athletic with a solid delivery. He has power stuff into the upper 90s on his heater with a plus slider. Meyer was previously a college reliever so he needs to build up stamina and improve his changeup. He has room on his frame to get even stronger. It was a different front office but the Jays have had success with a smallish right-hander (Marcus Stroman).
6. Seattle Mariners: Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State U
2018 and 2019 Picks: Jarred Kelenic and Kody Hoese
Things line up nicely for me to deliver and an excellent bat to the Mariners for a third straight year. Gonzales plays in New Mexico so the stats are inflated by a great hitting environment but even if you let the air out of them, they’re impressive. In 16 college games before the pandemic hit, Gonzales had 12 home runs, a 1.765 OPS, 21-10 BB-K and a .448 batting average. He has a great eye and the ability to hit for a high average. He’s perhaps Nick Madrigal without the speed but a little more gap power.
7. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, California HS
2018 and 2019 Picks: Grayson Rodriguez and Nick Lodolo
This is where my run on the second tier of prep outfielders (aka post-Zac Veen) starts. Crow-Armstrong reminds me of Alex Verdugo. He takes a lot of pitches, isn’t afraid to work the count and uses the whole field. He’s not a huge player right now and has lots of room to add good weight/muscle to help answer some of the questions about how much power he’ll hit for. There is lots of time for him to mature and he’s sure to stick in center field.
8. San Diego Padres: Robert Hassell, OF, Tennessee HS
2018 and 2019 Picks: Nick Madrigal and Matthew Allan
For me, Hassell and Pete Crow-Armstrong are very close in terms of potential as they both have a chance to be above-average hitters but both come with questions about future power output. There is room to add a lot of muscle to Hassell’s thin frame so I think the power will eventually play. He has a little less speed than his fellow prospect whom I took above. He’s another player with a very low-maintenance but potent swing.
9. Colorado Rockies: Austin Hendrick, OF, Pennsylvania HS
2018 and 2019 Picks: Lenny Torres and Alek Manoah
Hendrick has one of the most powerful bats in the draft with excellent bat speed and he already has a mature frame -- he looks more like a college hitter than a prep bat. My concerns come from the swing-and-miss in his game, as well as the modest quality of pitching he’s faced while growing up in Pennsylvania. I’ll take hit tool over a power tool most days so Hendrick falls a bit in the prep outfielder ranks for me but is still good value here and could really thrive in Colorado.
10. Los Angeles Angels: Emerson Hancock, RHP, U Georgia
2018 and 2019 Picks: Noah Naylor and Anthony Volpe
This is quite a slide for Hancock, who is widely considered the second-best college arm. But it's also a great pick for the Angels, an organization that desperately needs impact arms. However, I don’t love his arm action or arm slot. He has some power to his fastball and slider but the former offering gets hit more than you’d like to see. A low arm slot like this can lead to issues against left-handers but Emerson has a very good changeup which helps to combat that concern. He also has a chance for above-average command/control.
11. Chicago White Sox: Reid Detmers, LHP, U Louisville
2018 and 2019 Picks: Alec Bohm and Bobby Witt Jr.
He's not flashy but Detmers is a perfectly good college pitcher. His lack of premium fastball velocity and fly-ball tendencies make him a bigger risk for me than perhaps some other scouting directors. With that said, he’s expected to be a very reliable No. 3/4 starter in the Majors and has the makeup and drive to move quickly. He could end up with plus command/control. Prior to the pandemic halt, Detmers had a K-BB of 48-6 in 22 innings over four starts.
12. Cincinnati Reds: Mick Abel, RHP, Oregon HS
2018 and 2019 Picks: Carter Stewart and Josh Jung
The first prep arm off the board for me is not from one of the warm-weather hotbeds but from Oregon. Abel has an enviable pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-5, 195 pounds and he has excellent athleticism. He’s flashed the ability to hit 96-97 mph but works more in the 92-94 mph range which is fine — he has room to add muscle/weight to his frame.
13. San Francisco Giants: Jared Kelley, RHP, Texas HS
2018 and 2019 Picks: Brady Singer and Corbin Carroll
Kelley is more physically mature than Abel above and has less projection. He slips one slot down for me because he lacks a quality break ball and it’s hard to just pick up a feel for spinning the ball. Still, he has a power fastball that can hit the upper 90s and potentially-plus changeup. He should also have above-average to plus command and control in time. I think he'll make it work as a starter even if his third offering in fringe-average but he could be a downright dominant high-leverage reliever as a backup plan.
14. Texas Rangers: Nick Bitsko, RHP, Pennsylvania HS
2018 and 2019 Picks: Nolan Gorman and Riley Greene
Bitsko committed a year early so he’s one of the youngest arms in the draft. He has a great pitcher’s frame and already stands 6-foot-4. He can dial his heater up to 96-97 mph and also features a power, high-spin-rate curveball. There is some effort to his delivery, which could hurt his command/control and add some durability concerns but the talent is too much to ignore.
15. Philadelphia Phillies: Jordan Walker, 3B, George HS
2018 and 2019 Picks: Joey Bart and Brennan Malone
I really like Walker and think he deserves to be a first-rounder even if he’s being ranked as more of a supplemental first or second-round selection by others. The teenager is already 6-foot-5 but is very athletic for his size and should hit for a ton of power as he matures. He’s also a surprisingly good hitter for his age. I'm all in here.
16. Chicago Cubs: Tyler Soderstrom, 3B/C, California HS
2018 and 2019 Picks: Blaine Knight and Braden Shewmake
I might have Soderstrom ranked higher if I thought he could catch. His bat will likely develop quicker than his defense so I’d pick him here and move him to third base while giving him some additional reps at catcher to see if he can be a solid third-string option -- or how the electronic strike zone might play out and make catcher defense less important. He has plus power potential. He has a bit of a longer swing so there will likely be some swing-and-miss here.
17. Boston Red Sox: Bobby Miller, RHP, U Louisville
2018 and 2019 Picks: Adam Kloffenstein
A teammate of Reid Detmers, Miller is another sure-fire first-rounder for me. He has a great pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds. He can dial his heater up into the mid-to-upper 90s and it could produce good ground-ball numbers. He also has a power slider but will need a reliable changeup/splitter to combat left-handed hitters given his low arm slot. There is reliever risk here or I'd have him ranked higher.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Garrett Crochet, LHP, U Tennessee
2018 and 2019 Picks: J.T. Ginn, Daniel Espino, and Michael Busch
Crochet is a lefty that can really throw heat. The 6-foot-6 hurler can touch 100 mph and also showcases an intriguing slider. Crochet also has good control but less impressive command. He’s down a bit for me due to a modest college results and some injury concerns (He missed time with a shoulder problem).
19. New York Mets: Cole Wilcox, RHP, U Georgia
2018 and 2019 Picks: Jonathan India and Brett Baty
I really liked Wilcox in his senior year of high school but he slid was down the real draft because he wasn’t signable away from his college commitment. He hasn’t advanced as much as I had hoped since then and I had concerns with his inability to throw consistent strikes in his sophomore season (although he had a K-BB of 32-2 in four starts in 2020). He still has a power repertoire but there is a risk that he ends up as a high-leverage reliever.
20. Milwaukee Brewers: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
2018 and 2019 Picks: Jeremiah Jackson and Seth Johnson
This feels like a solid landing spot for the athletic Mitchell. He more of a pull approach than I like to see from a player with modest present power so I worry about how well he'll hit in pro ball. The type-1 diabetes has some teams concerned but it doesn’t worry me given how strong medical teams have become for pro sports teams. Mitchell has plus-plus speed, excellent center-field defence and could hit for more power with tweaks to his swing. But he’s also a little more raw and with more risk than your typical college outfielder.
21. St. Louis Cardinals: Austin Wells, C/OF, U Arizona
2018 and 2019 Picks: Cole Wilcox and Spencer Jones
Wells has a chance to be a solid hitter with above-average power. He’s also shown a willingness to take a walk and could produce good on-base numbers. He’s had some elbow issues which have lessened the value in his arm and his changes of sticking behind the plate are low. He may be OK in a corner outfield spot and the Cardinals definitely don't need more catching depth. I'm still bummed that last year's pick, Spencer Jones, opted for college rather than beginning his pro career.
22. Washington Nationals: Ed Howard, SS, Illinois HS
2018 and 2019 Picks: Alek Thomas and Kyren Paris
An excellent defensive shortstop, Howard also has a quick bat but his swing gets long, which limits his offensive potential. He also has just modest in-game pop at this time but he has a build that hints at more pop to come once he adds additional muscle. He doesn’t come from a big hotbed so he could really blossom once he hits pro ball as he’s reportedly a smart player with good instincts.
23. Cleveland Indians: Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke U
2018 and 2019 Picks: Seth Beer and Bryson Stott
Jarvis works with a very quick tempo and is fun to watch. He’s added velocity in the last year and now works in the mid-90s. He could eventually have three above-average offerings although the movement in his delivery could keep him from ever having more than average command/control.
24. Tampa Bay Rays: Daniel Cabrera, OF, Louisiana State U
2018 and 2019 Picks: Shane McClanahan and Quinn Priester
Cabrera has excellent balance and quick hands, which should help him hit for a high average in pro ball. There are some questions about how much power he’ll hit for but I think he’ll get to at least enough to generate 15-20 home runs. He has limited defensive value and is probably a long-term left-fielder.
25. Atlanta Braves: Jared Jones, RHP, California HS
2018 and 2019 Picks: Jackson Kowar, Jackson Rutledge and Shea Langeliers
An ultra-athletic, two-way prep player, Jones’ future is on the mound even if he stands just 6-foot-1. The right-hander can work into the upper 90s with a potentially above-average slider. There is definite effort is his delivery which could prevent him from ever having more than average command/control. Focusing on just pitching could help him really take off and the Braves organization could really help him tap into his full potential on the mound.
26. Oakland Athletics: Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest U
2018 and 2019 Picks: Travis Swaggerty and Keoni Cavaco
Shuster is a strong-bodied lefty who should be able to provide lots of innings in the middle of a starting rotation. His track record of statistical success is limited but he’s seen a jump in velocity (now sits mid-90s) and improved control with an easy delivery. He also has an excellent changeup with swing-and-miss potential and a developing breaking ball. In the back-end of the first round I feel safe in taking him with the belief the improvements are permanent.
27. Minnesota Twins: Cade Cavalli, RHP, U Oklahoma
2018 and 2019 Picks: Steele Walker and Hunter Bishop
Cavalli has an impressive pitcher’s frame and premium velocity. He could also eventually end up with four better-than-average offerings. His control has really improved but his command is a work-in-progress and he allows more hits and misses fewer bats than you’d like to see.
28. New York Yankees: Heston Kjerstad, OF, U Arkansas
2018 and 2019 Picks: Greyson Jenista and Matthew Lugo
Teams are reportedly drawn to Kjerstad’s plus power but I don’t like his swing or set up at all. He also strikes out a lot — 63 times in 63 games as a sophomore — and just doesn’t look like a natural hitter. There is power here but not enough to entice me with a high pick but the Yankees have a track record of success when it comes to helping hitters make adjustments and unleashing their full potentials.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, U South Carolin
2018 and 2019 Picks: Nander De Sedas and J.J. Goss
Mlodzinski is such a wildcard. He looks great on the mound but has had uneven results throughout his college career — and he missed much of his sophomore season due to a foot injury. This right-hander has a solid 93-94 mph fastball with lots of sink and a solid cutter/slider. He was excellent in last summer’s Cape Cod League. He has a solid delivery and his stuff really moves when he’s on his game.
Comp Round A
30. Baltimore Orioles: Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State U
31. Pittsburgh Pirates: Gage Workman, 3B/SS, Arizona State U
32. Kansas City Royals: Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor U
33. Arizona Diamondbacks: Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn U
34. San Diego Padres: Isaiah Greene, OF, California HS
35. Colorado Rockies: Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech U
36. Cleveland Indians: Slade Cecconi, RHP, U Miami
37. Tampa Bay Rays: David Calabrese, OF, Ontario (Canada) HS
72. Houston Astros (First pick due to sign-stealing penalties): JT Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State U (Ryan Rolison and Jimmy Lewis)
Ginn was a surefire first-rounder coming out of high school for me, even if that wasn’t the consensus. The Dodgers took him at the back end of the first but failed to sign him. He looked good in college before getting hurt and requiring Tommy John surgery. With advancements in the surgery and success rates, he’s still a potential option for me at the end of the first given his power stuff. As a freshman, this draft-eligible sophomore posted a K-BB of 103-18 in 80.1 innings. He’s a potential steal here if he’ll agree to the money available. Another injured hurler, prep pitcher Daxton Fulton, would be considered here if signable.
