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Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. We only have a handful of these left, so let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With an abnormally early start time, we've got a nine-game matinee main slate on DraftKings, though the games are splintered across multiple slates on FanDuel. There are plenty of intriguing pitching spots today, so there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks on 9/20/2023 and the DraftKings main slate locking at 12:20 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
George Kirby, SEA vs. OAK ($9,700 DK, $10,000 FD)
The pitchers on this slate don't offer the same ceiling upside as yesterday's arms, so I'm after reliability from my selections. Nobody on this slate better embodies this than George Kirby. Kirby's 3.91 xERA and 3.66 xFIP fall short of ace material, though you can usually predict what you're going to get from him. His metrics border on average in most regards, including a 23% strikeout rate and .306 xwOBA, but a league-best 2.6% walk rate outlines why he usually avoids surrendering too much damage.
The Athletics have been one of baseball's worst offenses all year. They score just 3.6 runs per game on the season. That includes an 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .667 OPS, .293 wOBA, and a 25.2% strikeout rate. Oakland's offense has been moderately more functional in the second half, but not to the extent that I'm shying away from Kirby today.
Seth Lugo, SD vs. COL ($8,600 DK, $9,800 FD)
I'm not a staunch believer in Seth Lugo's respectable surface numbers, but in keeping with the theme of reliability, he gives me peace of mind today. Lugo's true performance can be seen in his advanced metrics. His 3.72 xFIP is solid, but the rest of the numbers are middling at best. That includes a 4.38 xERA, .322 xwOBA, .258 xBA, and a 23.1% strikeout rate. Still, Lugo has managed a quality start in five of his last six appearances, and that's what we're after. Playing in a pitcher-friendly Petco Park additionally helps his chances of success.
The real reason we want Lugo today is the matchup. The Rockies might be baseball's worst offense. They score just 3.8 runs per game away from Coors Field. Since the All-Star break, Colorado sports a league-worst 77 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. That mark includes a generous 27.2% strikeout rate.
Also consider: Merrill Kelly, Bailey Ober, Lucas Giolito, Hunter Greene
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bobby Witt Jr. – SS, KC vs. Lucas Giolito ($5,900 DK, $4,200 FD)
Between power and speed, Bobby Witt Jr. has been one of baseball's most consistent fantasy producers. He boasts a .277/.319/.493 slash line with 29 home runs and 48 stolen bases. Witt's success includes a blistering .536 xSLG, .296 xBA, 11.4% barrel rate, 45.5% hard-hit rate, 90.7 MPH average exit velocity, and .373 xwOBA.
https://x.com/JustBB_Media/status/1702864734134169772?s=20
Lucas Giolito should be moderately popular today, but if you're not rostering him, he's worth targeting against. Through 30 starts, he sports a 4.32 xERA and 4.34 xFIP. That includes surrendering at least four earned runs in five of his last six appearances. Giolito has given up a whopping 36 home runs this season, and right-handed hitters are slugging .473 against him.
Gunnar Henderson – 3B/SS, BAL vs. Cristian Javier ($5,300 DK, $3,800 FD)
With multi-positional eligibility as a bonus, Gunnar Henderson is a fantastic play today. His breakout rookie campaign has landed him a .261/.328/.500 with 27 home runs. Henderson's advanced metrics are equally impressive, including .477 xSLG, 11.8% barrel rate, 53.2% hard-hit rate, 92.4 MPH average exit velocity, and .349 xwOBA.
Cristian Javier has been one of the more surprising regressions of 2023. Through 28 starts, he carries a 4.75 xERA and a horrible 5.31 xFIP. That includes a .462 xSLG and 10.1% barrel rate. Left-handed hitters are slugging .497 against Javier this season.
Josh Naylor – 1B, CLE vs. Zack Greinke ($4,200 DK, $3,300 FD)
Josh Naylor has been a core contributor for the Guardians this season. He boasts a .309/.350/.499 slash line with 17 home runs this season. His success consists of a .479 xSLG, .290 xBA, 36.1% sweet-spot rate, and a .344 xwOBA. Naylor has been pretty indiscriminate of pitcher-handedness, but he owns a .507 slugging percentage and 131 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season.
In short, Zack Greinke is cooked at this point in his career. He sports a career-worst 5.18 xERA and 4.46 xFIP through 27 appearances. Greinke has been lit up by opposing hitters to the tune of a .480 xSLG, .290 xBA, and .347 xwOBA. Left-handed hitters are slugging .579 against him on the season.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Juan Soto – OF, SD vs. Chase Anderson ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD)
Lost in the mix of the Padres' disappointing 2023 campaign, Juan Soto is putting up fantastic numbers. He carries a .268/.405/.506 slash line with 32 home runs and a 151 wRC+. Soto has posted a .521 xSLG, 12.8% barrel rate, 93 MPH average exit velocity, 54.6% hard-hit rate, and .402 wOBA. He's hit safely in 10 of his last 11 appearances, including four home runs in that span.
https://x.com/MLB/status/1703538757360627773?s=20
Count Chase Anderson among the worst pitchers on this slate. Across 17 appearances, he owns a 5.06 xERA and 5.44 xFIP. He's surrendered a .448 SLG and .344 xwOBA. Hitters of all-handedness are slugging north of .495 against Anderson this season.
Teoscar Hernandez – OF, SEA vs. Joey Estes ($4,600 DK, $2,900 FD)
Teoscar Hernandez has been streaky this season, but he's undoubtedly one of the most lethal bats in the Mariners' lineup. Overall, he's slashing .265/.311/.449 with 25 home runs. Ignoring his problematic whiff rate, the results are worthwhile when Hernandez does put the ball in play -- .484 xSLG, 14.3% barrel rate, 49% hard-hit rate, and 36.4% sweet-spot rate.
Joey Estes is slated to make his MLB debut on Wednesday. Across seven outings in Triple-A, he posted a 5.23 ERA and 6.05 xFIP. Estes also surrendered a gratuitous 2.76 home runs per nine innings. It seems Hernandez, and the Mariners as a whole could have a big day in this matchup.
Nolan Jones – OF, COL vs. Seth Lugo ($4,300 DK, $3,500 FD)
If you're not playing Seth Lugo today, I believe there will be some leverage to be gained from rostering Nolan Jones. He's been one of the few bright spots for the Rockies this season, slashing .283/.370/.520 with 17 home runs and 13 stolen bases. That includes a .478 xSLG, 15.3% barrel rate, and .347 xwOBA.
Although I pumped up Seth Lugo as a pitching recommendation above, he's far from immune to getting hit. Left-handed hitters have been particularly successful against him, slugging .464 versus Lugo this season.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Cleveland Guardians vs. Zack Greinke
Favorite Plays: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, Bo Naylor
San Diego Padres vs. Chase Anderson
Favorite Plays: Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim
Also Consider: Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners
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