RADIO
I was hoping that DWG would pull the ultimate alpha move and choose T1 for their semifinal opponent. The new old roster of the former top dogs in the LCK is getting rolling, and I thought that perhaps DWG would look to derail that train before it left the station. Damwon instead chose HLE for their prey, and after the series they just had with Nongshim, it should be a walk in the park for the defending LCK and World Champions. Whoever wins this matchup will face T1 and Gen G's winner, who play tomorrow in the grand finals next Saturday AM. T1 also looked shaky in their win over DRX, and Gen G showed some inconsistency over the season's final month. Gen did take down DWG 2-1 in their meeting in week nine, so DWG has reason to fear Gen G. T1, to their credit, swept that same Gen G team the week before, so maybe the LCK spring playoffs aren't such a done deal after all.
In the LPL, our mega-bracket carries on with FPX taking on Rare Atom in a rematch from week seven in which RA won 2-1. Rare struggled to surpass IG, who once again proved they are the dumbest team on the face of the planet handing two near sure wins over to RA. FPX hasn't played in over a week since their 2-0 thrashing of BLG, in which Tian started over Beichuan. FPX returned to their old ways showcasing a ferocious early game with ganks plenty. We'll see if they can jump all over Rare Atom similarly. On the other side of the bracket, Team WE will face Suning in a rematch of their week eight tilt that saw WE pick up a clean 2-0.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Saturday, April 3rd, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.
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LCK Match
Wednesday 4:00 AM: Damwon (-750) vs. HLE (+450)
After such a rough series against Nongshim, HLE finally subbed Arthur into the final game, trying to find a spark. There are now some rumors circulating that we may even see Dudu back into the top lane for HLE. Luckily, this is the opener, and we're not on a multi-day slate, so that we will have the starters in plenty of time. You know as if anyone is playing HLE after their quarterfinal performance. July 11th of 2020 was the last time Deft and Chovy took a series from DWG. That was week four of the summer split, and it took them four more matches until spring week five to even muster a game off the champs. DWG swept them in week three spring, World's quarterfinals, LCK summer finals, and LCK summer week 7. Let's see if they can reverse that trend here in the semis.
HLE has some hope in the early game, and if they build on it correctly, they could upset the champs. Despite having a lower rift herald percentage, HLE has a higher first turret and first three turret rates. HLE also has a higher first dragon rate, and drake stacking is likely their best chance here. DWG Kia has the edge in first blood and GD@15. Damwon lead the LCK in dragon rate, but HLE is a close second. Baron control and vision numbers are also in favor of the reigning champs.
If HLE wants a shot at this, they need to focus on the map's bottom side. Getting Deft ahead and pushing that side of the map will be vital to unlocking the drake pit. Stacking those early dragons will allow them to pressure DWG into early soul fights where a fed Deft and Chovy's incredible skill could push them over the top. More likely, though, is that Canyon brutalizes either Arthur or Yohan and uses his advantage to answer Chovy's incredible laning prowess. Add to that the draft gap that is likely to exist between the teams, and I fear HLE are in for a long-short night.
I like DWG to move on to the finals, and I think that HLE will be lucky to take a game. HLE fans are already talking about who they will pick up for summer split to play jungle and top lane instead of their team's chances this weekend. After the NSRF series, I think that's a bit over the top and a bit disingenuous to that RedForce team who played to a level I thought they were capable of coming into the year. The diffy in the jiffy here will be challenging to overcome, and the draft gap scarcely less so. I've got DWG as the top projected team of the favs on this slate, and if they pick up the sweep, all the better. Rare Atom likely puts a wet blanket on FPX's upside if the top dogs hold serve.
Top DWG KIA Plays
- Canyon - JNG - first in KP% and second in KS%.
- Beryl - SUP - gone are the gaudy numbers from last year along with the Pantheon support pick, but he remains a steady contributor.
- Ghost - ADC - leads the team in KS% and is likely to see plenty of action if HLE does trend to the bottom half of the map.
- Showmaker - MID - mids into Chovy isn't my fav, but Canyon can visit early and often.
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LPL Match
5:00 AM: FunPlus Phoenix (-185) vs. Rare Atom (+135)
The first match between these two was an odd one, with the team trading Karthus jungle and wins back and forth. RA eventually came out on top in that one as FPX played right into their hands in looking to head into the late game. Now that Tian has returned, I think we see a more aggressive FPX as they showed versus BLG. We just saw how RA struggled with IG when they went hard early game. If FPX can avoid IG level of throws, they could punish Rare Atom's dependence on the late game.
FunPlus, with their strong topside, have the edge in rift herald and have done well to translate that into further objectives. FPX has a 22% lead in the first turret rate and a 41% edge in taking the first three turrets. They turn those turret advantages into an average GD@15 of nearly 2k gold. SNG has a higher first blood rate, a slight edge in total drakes, and a lead in vision numbers. I believe that FunPlus will look to push the pace in this matchup taking advantage of their early strength. If, however, they announce Beichuan is starting over Tian, I feel all bets are off. That will slow their pace and give Rare Atom a bit easier to navigate their way into the late game.
If Rare pulls the upset, I have them with the highest kill projection on the slate at nearly 20. I believe we see FPX take this one 3-1 if Tian starts, but they are the lowest kill total team on the slate. We just saw the speed at which RA operates in the IG series. I doubt that FPX goes as low as 8 or 9 like IG did, but 15-18 sounds about right. I'll probably trust the numbers here and stick to smaller stacks from FPX. If I side with Rare Atom, I'll stick to the carries of Fofo and Iboy.
Top FPX Plays:
- Tian - JNG - first in KP% and second in KS% in the games he's played.
- Lwx - ADC - leads the team in KP%.
- Nuguri - TOP - popped last game with some jungle pressure, and we just saw theshy have some awesome early games vs. Cube.
Summary
- TLDR: DWG 3-1, FPX 3-1; it will be nice to have a regular slate to toy with tonight. There is no lineup speculation as long as you stay up for the LCK announcement about an hour and a half pre-lock or pick DWG.
- If FPX toy with the lineup, I like Rare Atom more, but other than that, it seems like a chalky slate. Paying down at captain, full stacking FPX, or toying with some one-offs may be the best ways to get different tonight.
- Tomorrow we'll have more variety with T1/Gen G and WE/SNG on the slate. Good luck out there tonight, everyone. It's been a pleasure chatting with you all regularly.
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