RADIO
Holy Huanfeng Batman! SNG outperformed expectations, especially their stud ADC. I built most of my lineups around FPX, and they scored very well but not well enough to top HF. Gen G picked up a very HLE-Esque win, which was expected, and AFS dusted SBG. That last game was one where I was glad I had the whole day to reconsider. If the slate had locked at 7 PM, I probably would have had no AFS, but I ended up with a 60/40 SBG/AFS split by lock.
Today we've got another toilet bowl type matchup in the LPL before getting to the Prime Cut of TES and WE. On the LCK side of things, DWG can control KT's playoff future simply by showing up or not, as that matchup is meaningless to them. Likely they dust off KT and move on, leaving the late game in the LCK with some playoff significance. If KT loses, it's a win, and you're in for Nongshim.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Saturday, March 27th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00: DWG (-1000) vs. KT Rolster (+550)
I'm glad this is our first match of the evening because we will have the starters ahead of time. I wouldn't be surprised to see DWG rest Showmaker here, but I've thought that before too. KT are actually in the driver's seat for the final LCK playoff spot and claim that with a win today. I might have to tie on a tinfoil hat to find a reason for KT to upset DWG.
KT Rolster has a better first blood rate than Damwon Kia, but that's where KT's advantages end. DWG should demolish them unless they run out some backups or bear a grudge against any other of our playoff hopefuls and throw this game to let KT into the playoffs. After watching KT's performance against NSRF on Wednesday, where they played very timidly, I don't know if they could beat DWG's AA squad.
I think we see Damwon come out and take care of business here. I'll be combing social media all day, looking for clues that DWG could take the IG or G2 route with a "Happy Game" or running out some backups and the possible implications of such. If DWG plays this straight up, I have them as the third-highest projected favorite, and they are the most expensive team across the board. We saw how scared KT were on Thursday, and they have been sllloooooooow in their losses giving up 14.5 deaths since LNY. I think DWG is nearly fadeable for tournaments, at least. I may just limit myself to some small stacks.
Top DWG Plays
- Canyon - JNG - don't game log watch, but if you did oof, this mid jungle duo is still something else.
- Showmaker - MID - See above.
- DWG - TEAM - with all the advantages globally, I like the team slot a fair bit.
7:00 AM: Nongshim RedForce (-190) vs. Fredit Brion (+150)
Nongshim beat Brion 2-0 back in week two of the split, and Brion has grown a lot since then. NSRF has remained stagnant as a moderately talented but underperforming squad. Nongshim are also live for the final playoff spot, which now seemingly no one wants. SBG threw away their chance to control their destiny versus AFS yesterday.
Since the LNY break, these two have been very close. NSRF has been better early with a higher rift herald rate, first turret percentage, first three turrets, and GD@15. Brion has the higher drake rate and baron numbers by a smidge. They also field a substantial vision advantage and are the superior team fighting team. If Brion can withstand the early game and drag NSRF into the late game as KT did on Wednesday, they should be able to pick up the win.
I don't know if NSRF can generate enough of an early lead to snowball Fredit. If they do, it will all come down to Peanut. I'm expecting Brion to start Yaharong in the mid lane, but whether it's him or Lava, they will have the edge over Bay. The bottom lane duo, I would give the edge to Brion as well. Looking at the kill numbers favors Fredit Brion as well. They will suppress NSRF scoring potential with their more passive style, and I have Nongshim as the lowest projected favorite. Fredit is projected fifth overall, and all signs are pointing me to a dog or pass approach for this match.
Top BRO Plays:
- Delight - SUP - nearly 80% KP in Brions wins.
- Hena- ADC - he matches his sups KP and adds 35% kill share.
- If we figure out who starts at mid before lock, I would also like them. I have a slight lean to Yaharong if you're bold, but both would be a sub-risk.
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: TT (-125) vs. OMG (-105)
Of all the teams that didn't make the playoffs and aren't name BLG, these two are my favorites. I chased many upsets with both of them throughout the split, and now they get to fight directly for my love. OMG started experimenting with the roster again last time, promoting Kane from their LDL squad, and TT might start messing with theirs today. They called up Sky at mid lane and Catch their backup support as well. I like Teen, and he has had some moments, but Catch is Korean and could mesh better with SamD, which is also an import.
The teams themselves are evenly matched, and TT has been better early, and OMG is late. OMG has a 15% edge in baron numbers and first turret rate. TT has better cs numbers, GD@15, and first blood percentage. Even the kill projections for both teams are within a tenth of a point for each other. Xiaopeng over Aki is probably the most significant advantage either side has over the other.
This will come down to what fits my other plays and how I build out my lineups. If Eric is back in the starting lineup or TT fiddles with their starters, I will lean slightly to OMG. If TT stays the same and I see Kane from OMG, I will count somewhat on TT. It's not much to go on, and I can see many people fading this matchup because they don't want to pick a side in what is truly a toss-up.
Top Plays:
- With the starting rosters unknown, I will leave this as up in the air as the matchup.
7:00 AM: TES (-310) vs. Team WE (+225)
The late match in the LPL is the jewel of the slate again today. If TES sweeps, they will move into a tie with JDG for third which their H2H record would then decide as they would have the same game differential. If WE win, they would leapfrog TES and move into fourth, securing themselves an extra bye. The playoff significance is here, and both teams should be ready. TES has history on their side after Jackeylove joined the crew last spring. TES went 3-0 over WE with a collective game score of 8-2, including wins in both spring and summer playoff ladders.
TES has been running hot since the LNY break, only dropping the one series to RNG. WE have also only lost one match since the break, and theirs was to EDG. TES has been the best early game team in the league in the second half with an average gold differential at 15 of 2700. Their rift herald plays have been better than WE, and they have gotten the first three turrets down in 100% of their games. WE will try to answer that with plays to the bottom side of the map; they have a better first drake percentage and a better overall drake rate. TES has the better baron numbers, and the vision score between the two is relatively even.
WE are going to look at this like RNG lite. They will look to establish an early drake stack and try to pull TES around the map. TES will look to bully in lane and snowball through that as they did in their win over EDG. Both teams have the blueprint and the talent to pull out this win. I like TES to pick up the win as their gameplan will be easier to execute than that of WE. The Draven game against EDG was a perfect example of playing into the enemy teams strength and beating them.
I think WE can take this, but their win condition is much more challenging to execute. They also will need to play with extreme patience to wait for TES to make critical oversteps. This playstyle has not been WE's strength, as they often push too far after objective takes or small wins looking to blow the game wide open. WE are the top projected team on the slate if they can pull out the win as TES gives up 20.5 deaths in their losses. TES should score well in their own right as they will be looking to accelerate the game's pace, and I like them to pick up the win. TES could be fadeable if you think WE slow plays, as Top have poor team KP% averaging only 2.1 assists per kill.
Top TES plays
- Knight - MID - the all-star leads the team in both kill metrics, and if I can only pick one of the carries from TOP, I'll take Knight.
- Karsa - JNG - second in KP% and third in KS%.
- Zhou - SUP - third in KP%.
Summary
- TLDR: DWG 2-0, NSRF 2-1, TT 2-1, and TES 2-0. NSRF can win that match and still get outscored by Brion if Fredit steals a game if the bash BROs manage to take the win... TT and OMG is a 50/50 either way. WE can beat TES, and if they do, they will break things wide open.
- DWG are expensive, but with the LPL toss-up and Brion's projections, you can fit them or TES reasonably quickly if you're willing to plug your nose for the rest of the lineup.
- Nongshim are the favs, and on the blue side, which has a 57% win rate in LCK play, you don't need much of them to run some decent all-favs lineups for cash. They're much bigger favs than TT but priced below them for the kill projections.
- Speaking of TT, I feel like they will be much lower owned than any of the "favorites". It will be hard to stomach expensive loading TT into lineups today.
- Only one day of spring split left. Good luck out there, everyone!
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