RADIO
Last night we had some real snoozers from a fantasy perspective anyway. HLE dominated Fredit Brion with some super clean macro en route to some very disappointing scores. KT and NSRF went the distance, with KT pulling it out to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. In the LPL, we had LNG perform slightly better than HLE in a similar clean macro win. IG and LGD brought the fireworks to a meaningless matchup that turned everything on its head.
Tonight Gen G and DRX will battle for playoff seeding. In the late LCK match, it's Liiv SBG's chance to keep their playoff chances alive versus the lackluster Afreeca Freecs. Both LPL matches do have some playoff significance, yet FPX and SNG can both advance within their current playoff tier with wins.
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LCK Matches
4:00: DRX (+250) vs. Gen G (-350)
DRX is locked into their seeding for playoffs, and Gen G is still leading for the second seed behind DWG. Even though Gen G has beaten the reigning world champs this split, I expect them to strive for this win to avoid DWG until the spring split finals if possible. I believe Gen G will plow through DRX for that second seed, but DRX did take the first match between these two 2-1 back in week four.
I've been using the second-half stats for a while now, and those show DRX has struggled since LNY. They have been exposed a bit, especially in the early game. Gold, turrets, drakes, you name it, Gen G should claim it over DRX pre-fifteen minutes. Post-fifteen is usually DRX's strong suit, but Gen, again, has the upper hand with strong dragon, baron, and vision numbers. Statistically speaking, this should be a walkover from the side of Gen G.
DRX won the first match on the red side, and now they will get the comfort of the blue side, which maintains a nearly 58% win rate in the LCK. Gen G maintains a tidy 60% win rate from the red side and is unlikely to feel any ill effects from side selection loss. The other problem is that the first go-around Gen G did start their backup mid-laner, Karis, looking for a jump start. That was his first and only taste of LCK action this year, and I don't expect Gen G to play around here. DraftKings dynamic pricing has Gen G down a bit due to them having the lowest kill projection of any of the favorites, but they are in line for the sweep here, and that should keep them in play for me.
Top DRX Plays
- Clid - JNG - leads the team in KP% and is second in KS%.
- Bdd - MID - second in KP% and narrowly behind his jungler in KS%.
- Gen G - TEAM - they will probably carry the most ownership of any of the teams on the slate, but they have many statistical edges over DRX.
7:00 AM: AFS (+145) vs.Liiv SBG (-185)
Who remembers back to the start of the split? I do, but just like any good tout, only when it's convenient for me. I said AFS was the worst team in the league, and indeed they have been the first team eliminated from the playoffs in the LCK. SBG found their stride after the break and are still live for that final playoff spot.
At the start of the season, SBG could be counted on to accumulate decent leads and then fritter them away. After the LNY break, that mantle has surprisingly been picked up by AFS. They have been the better early game team of these two since the mid-way point of the season, but SBG remains strong early. The late game is where SBG has turned it around, and some of that has to be credited to allowing the main five starters to stick together.
SBG are priced a bit up from their vegas odds, which are the closest on the slate. They are, however, projected third in kills for me in a win, which means they're priced just about right for that. I believe they have some momentum coming into the series and have had a decent second half. Even last match, AFS has begun to experiment with the roster a bit, and in the late game, that's going to make them tough to play. I'll stick to small stacks and maybe the team slot from SBG.
Top Liiv SBG Plays:
- FATE - MID - great stats and the best lane matchup.
- Summit - TOP - good numbers, but a worse matchup than FATE.
- Liiv SBG - TEAM - they are the cheapest favorite, and I expect them to pick up the win.
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Estar (+1000) vs. SNG (-2500)
SNG can move up in the playoff hunt, but they can't secure a bye for themselves. The jump from the eighth seed to seven would have them avoid IG in the opening round, instead locking in a matchup with an LNG squad they just took apart a week ago. They will have some motivation in this one to show up. On the other hand, Estar will continue to experiment with their roster to try to recover some positive vibes at the end of a lost split.
Estar has been god awful in the mid to late game all split, and SNG has shown much better late gameplay since the break. Even in the early stats where Estar has been at their best, Suning outstrips them by a wide margin. SNG is the chalk of all chalk tonight, and for a good reason. I've got them with the second-best projection on the slate among the favorites. They are the top-priced stack overall and a LOCK to pick up this win and Likely score well doing so. Even with their medium pace of play last time out versus BLG, they scored very well, thanks to virtually no deaths.
Top SNG Plays:
- SofM - JNG - passed HF for the team lead in KP%.
- Haunfeng - ADC - this dude is on a tear with over 40% kill share.
- Bin -TOP - I know, I know, another top-priced recommendation tough decision.
7:00 AM: BLG (+280) vs. FunPlus Phoenix (-425)
It took us all night, but now things get interesting. FPX can still jump over WE or TES with a win here, but they have announced Tian is returning to the starting roster after his latest absence. This time around, his return is planned for, and with the team off for a week since their win over V5, he has been prepping and scrimming with the squad. There has been some controversy over Doinb and Tian's relationship lately with some inappropriate comments on Doinb's stream. Will this affect the chemistry? We'll find out tonight.
I say this as a BLG fan, but they have been a massive disappointment this split. They have been at their best early and often accumulated leads only to throw them away in the mid to late game. Last week we saw FPX struggle with another good early bad late team in their loss to V5. Can BLG duplicate this success? I doubt they can, but I think the door is open a little bit with the bad vibes and the roster shakeup; unlike V5, who have a great finish rate when ahead at fifteen minutes, BLG has problems closing. They have side selection, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see them jump on the red side to counter-pick Tian.
I have FPX projected a bit ahead of SNG, and they are priced a bit below them in most spots on DK. BLG has the highest projection of anyone if they can pull the upset, and I think they are worth a few gpp bullets tonight, but ultimately this is FPX's match to win.
Top FPX plays
- Crisp - SUP - 70% KP in FPX's wins.
- Doinb - MID - I think the old-fashioned FPX three-man death ball gets rolling tonight.
- Tian - JNG - In his last game, he popped off with his signature lee sin before succumbing to injury. I think he gets a lot of support from Crisp and Doinb tonight.
- Nuguri - TOP - with LWX likely to be used as an insurance policy and Buibui accounting for a full 30% of his team's deaths, I've got a hunch he hits a ceiling game tonight.
Top BLG plays
- Aiming - ADC - it's been a disappointing split for Aiming, but he still has over 80% KP and 40% KS in BLG's few wins post-LNY.
- Meteor - JNG - my boy is an animal, but he is also cursed somehow.
- Zeka - MID - the mid jungle duo will be the ticket to success for BLG today if they pull this out.
Summary
- TLDR: Gen G 2-0, SBG 2-0, SNG 2-0, and FPX 2-1. I think AFS is in a good spot for leverage, but they are also hot garbage. BLG is probably the most live dog, but they have not been good either post LNY.
- FPX is probably my favorite play tonight for gpps, and I'll be overweight on them here, but I'll also be running that one back with a bunch of BLG stacks, just in case.
- I doubt we see any insanity akin to LGD/IG today. There are still some playoff implications in play for today's teams, so I don't anticipate any fiestas.
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