RADIO
Last night was another wild one on the rift. Both LPL favorites went down in flames, and LCK was hardly any better. Gen G came out flat against KT after their big win over DWG, but they did manage to get the dub. That final spot in the LCK is still up for grabs.
DRX and Damwon face-off, and Showmaker has the night off to deal with his injured wrists. DRX should be popular as a dog play. T1 is in the late game, but they seem to finally be in playoff mode, which is terrible news for AFS. JDG should stomp LGD, but the upset bug is back in the LPL in a big way. LNG and SNG will clash for seeding in the early LPL match. Let's get after it.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: DRX (+290) vs. Damwon Kia (-450)
DRX is coming off a bad loss to T1 where it looked like they forgot to show up. I wasn't shocked about the result, and I wouldn't be surprised if DWG KIA did the same. DRX has a higher chance here today with DWG because they will be short-handed. DWG will be without Showmaker for the immediate future because of health concerns. RangJun has been called up and should assume the starting role in Showmaker's absence. RangJun has not played much this year but is a top 1000 KR ranked solo queue player but has spent time with both DRX and DWG Academy teams. Surprisingly, DK was on the ball and made RangJun roster able today.
DRX could take advantage of this substitute because Showmaker opens up the playbook for this DWG KIA squad, and it offers them so much flexibility in draft. DRX also gets the blue side advantage, but DWG has been an excellent red side team. With Showmaker out, this might be the lowest DWG ownership we have seen in a while. I would also be overweight on RangJun just because so maybe people would be reluctant to roster him. If there is one team that could win without their best player, it would be DWG.
To sum this all up, this series is one of my favorite games to roster today, with me leaning towards DWG KIA even without Showmaker. Both teams project well in wins, and I want a piece of this action. Also to note, T1 broke the slate the other day facing this DRX team, so that is something to keep in mind.
Top DRX Plays
- Ghost - ADC - Will have to step up big and be the primary carry for DWG KIA without Showmaker.
- Canyon - JNG - Another player that will have to step up big in the absence of Showmaker and leads the team in KP%.
- RangJun - MID - with him being the new addition, I would take ownership and get a comfort pick.
7:00 AM: T1 (-600) vs. AFS (+375)
T1 has returned to their line of veterans and looks much better. They are coming off back-to-back sweeps and look nearly unstoppable. Their objective control has been outstanding, especially the performance they put up against GEN.G.
Afreeca, on the other hand, has been a complete disaster. They have been swept in 4 straight matches and have looked like one of the worst teams on the latest patches. Afreeca has not looked competitive outside their latest series vs. NS, but it always looked questionable at best, even with that series. When you face off against a team like T1 and the vets that will be on stage, it is hard for me to see their struggles just disappear and all of a sudden compete with them.
I can see this game's appeal from the side of T1 owners as their recent scores should push up their ownership. I would also hope, with their recent success, that the coaching staff doesn't do anything reckless and bring out a roster that we are not expecting (not very likely, but it is the risk of rostering T1, even after wins). T1 should be popular, and while I love their upside, limiting exposure to smaller stacks is the way to go here.
Top T1 Plays:
- Teddy - ADC - 70.3 KP% and 36.0 KS% over the last two patches.
- Faker - MID - Usually not a fan of rostering "old man" Faker but his latest numbers put him in a great spot.
- T1 - TEAM - Excellent objective control, lead statistically in Dragon and tower control.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: JDG (-1400) vs. LGD (+700)
JDG is making that playoff push, and they get the joy of feasting against some of the worst teams in the LPL, a significant morale boost headed into playoffs. JDG is also currently on a four sweep streak, including a sweep of RNG just last week. JDG is one of the scariest teams heading into playoffs, and I am sorry to say, but LGD winning would be the most LPL thing EVER.
LGD today will be throwing things at a wall and hoping it sticks. What I mean by that is Garvey will be making his way back into the lineup, this time in his natural position of top lane. While you would think this is good news, it is not. Zoom should dominate Garvey, who has yet to play a single competitive top-lane game this split for LGD.
While LGD isn't the bloodiest team in a loss, it is hard to ignore some of the numbers JDG is putting up in wins. JDG will have to be exclusively a small stack today just because of how crazy their prices are unless you are looking to pair them with a big dog, something I don't think you need to force today. While LGD has looked better vs. low-level competition, I just can't see them compete vs. JDG.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JnG - Leads the team in KP% and 2nd in KS%. He should be a very popular captain.
- Loken - ADC - Crazy ceiling, breaking the 120 club this split. Leads the team in KS%.
- Zoom - TOP - Like mentioned above, should feast against Garvey.
6:00 AM: LNG (+375) vs. SNG (-600)
This is probably one of the most challenging games to predict. I think the odds are way too high in favor of SN, who is arguably just as good or bad (however you want to classify them as) as LNG. This will be SN's second match on the new patch. They can thrive in this meta since Huanfeng has shown that he can carry any game if you give him the resources to scale. On the flip side, LNG has had the luxury of playing three series on this patch, being swept by two great teams (EDG and JDG) and sweeping a lousy team in OMG.
SN's win condition will be winning through an early snowball and then funneling resources into their carries of Angel and Huanfeng. They have a much better early-game rating as well as a much better GD@15. If they can command an early lead, it usually leads them to push their vision control and dominate objective control (herald, dragons, and towers). On the other hand, LNG is going to look to survive the early onslaught and scale-up behind the likes of Icon and Light.
To sum it all up, this is probably the most complicated game to predict, but I could see it score pretty well. Both teams carries project nicely in a win but what bothers me is the price points they both come at. I do have SN winning, and they do offer the same upside as LNG in a win, but it is hard to ignore LNG being such a giant dog.
Top SNG plays
- Huanfeng - ADC - Has a 41.1 KS% in his last 12 matches, giving him the highest kill upside on the slate.
- Angel - MID - If Huanfeng isn't going to carry, Angel will have to. I would 100% prioritize Huanfeng though over Angel today.
Top LNG plays
- Light - ADC - Has a 35.5 KS% in his last 15 matches, relatively close numbers to Huanfeng, including massive upside in a win.
- Icon - MID - Same situation as Angel; if Light can't put in the work, expect Tarzan and Icon's duo to do it. Icon is my preference over Tarzan, but I wouldn't fault you if you went there.
Summary
- TLDR: DWG 2-1, T1 2-0, JDG 2-0, SN 2-1. The LCK matches grade very well today and has relatively similar or even better upside than some of the LPL teams today.
- LGD is on the DNP list for me today. While it would be the most LPL thing for them to win, I just can't fathom it happening. LNG, however, could sneak a win in to help their playoff positioning. DRX is obviously live with the replacement of Showmaker.
- Good luck, have fun, and enjoy the last slate of Week 9 for LPL/LCK combo slates.
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