RADIO
Both leagues are barreling towards playoffs, and the LCK only has one spot up for grabs yet. Even with KT's loss, they are still currently holding it. Gen G's upset of DWG didn't do much at the top of the standings besides buffer them from HLE. In the LPL, WE leapfrogged EDG into second, at least until tonight, and even though TT handled RW, their playoff hopes died some time ago.
Tonight we've got Afreeca and Nongshim fighting to take one step closer to that final LCK spot, and as KT has been awful since the break, this is a big one for both teams. T1 and DRX fight for seeding in the late game. EDG has a layup with Estar and needs the win to jump back over WE into second. JDG may have lost their outside chance at the top four, but they need to keep the momentum up after their win over RNG to escape the bottom four.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Friday, March 19th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AFS (-110) vs. Nongshim RedForce (-120)
Afreeca and Nongshim are still both alive in the LCK playoff race. I've made quite a point thus far this season about the difficulty and structure of the LPL playoff structure, but precious little about the LCK. The LCK also revamped their playoff bracket in the wake of franchising. Gone is the gauntlet style where the regular-season champ automatically starts the post-season in finals. Now third seed plays sixth with four facing five; DWG will select one of these matches' winners for destruction in the second round. The lucky team that doesn't get picked will meet the second seed in the other semi-final. Nongshim seems to have an easier path with their final three vs. Afreeca, KT, and Fredit Brion. Afreeca has to get through Nongshim, T1, and LSB.
The first meeting of these two teams was back in week three, and AFS won 2-0 from the red side. Now they come into the matchup on the Blue side. After rewatching the first series, I kept asking myself, how did Nongnshim lose? Each game, though, no matter how far ahead they were, RedForce did find a way to lose. Looking at the two teams stats since break, we can see that AFS have stepped up their early game. They have the edge in every one of those early metrics I've been prattling on about all split long. NSRF has the advantage in total drakes, while the teams are equal in baron numbers, and AFS has a slight lead in vision numbers. Overall I have to give the team stats over to AFS.
Even with AFS taking the stats category, a wise man once told me stats don't matter. I'm not entirely inclined to believe that, but I'm going with it in this instance. I also hate the kill numbers for AFS. Since break, they have accumulated 52 kills in their four wins. They have the slowest pace of any LCK team in their wins post-break. AFS give up over 18 deaths in their losses, and Nongshim, in their victories post-break, average 19 kills. That gives the RedForce a hefty kill projection that's good for second among the favorites on this slate. The kill projections and my gut feeling here outweigh the stats for me, and I'll either fade this match entirely or grab some small stacks from NSRF.
Top NSRF Plays
- Deokdam - ADC - nearly 40% kill share in NSRF's wins, and he has a tremendous in-lane matchup with Bang, who is DUST.
- Kellin - SUP - second on the team in KP%.
- Peanut - JNG - has been massive post-break and is a critical win condition for NSRF. He needs to bench Nidalee and Graves, but that can be said for most LCK junglers.
7:00 AM: T1 (-250) vs. DRX (+185)
Since their terrible loss to Fredit Brion, we've seen T1 go back to a more experienced lineup to much success with sweeps over KT and, surprisingly, Gen G. DRX disappointedly lost to NSRF last week and have looked shaky the last two weeks. We'll all be sweating the T1 lineup again here in the late game, but you've got to imagine that we could see them bring out the same starters looking to build some momentum heading into playoffs.
In week five, DRX held serve on the blue side, winning 2-1; now T1 will get side selection. T1 has been the better early game team all split, and that remains true post-break. T1 also has the edge both neutral monster objectives as well. DRX has played very well late in games leading some of us to pull out our hair as they continually seem to suck out wins in games they likely shouldn't. With the more experienced roster probably coming out from T1, I doubt DRX will be able to pull a fast one.
T1 has the third-best kill projection among the favorites, but DRX has the lowest forecast of any team on the slate in a win. So T1 has the stats, the kill numbers, and a bit of a revenge factor from the loss in week five. I like T1 here, if you couldn't tell. I'll be spending a great deal of time trying to decipher their starters before lock, and if I can't find anything will feel less confident. As I said earlier, I believe that they would field the same starters looking to build momentum for the playoffs.
Top T1 Plays:
- Teddy - ADC - 72% KP and 32%KS in T1's wins post-break.
- Faker - MID - almost 72% KP in T1's this split.
- Keria - SUP - rock steady in the bot lane with 68%KP.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: EDG (-2000) vs. Estar (+900)
EDG currently sits in second place in the LPL, and given the LPL's first tiebreaker is game differential and not head-to-head record, they can still catch RNG. EDG is close with Estar, Rare Atom, and WE, making it possible to pick up a game against RNG, whose remaining schedule is TES, RA, and LGD. Estar, meanwhile, will close out the split next week versus SNG and will be trying desperately to stay out of dead last.
LPL favorites have been much more solid this split than any in recent memory. Outside of the RW upset of TES to start the split, LPL teams have been dependable when facing their lower-tier brethren. This seems like a done deal for EDG. Even sorting their stats for post-break leaves them miles ahead of Estar. EDG are heckin expensive, they're a mortal lock to sweep, but can they pay off these prices. I've got them projected just behind T1 as the lowest kill total favorite. I think I'll take a slight discount on some of the other faves. They are a lock to win and likely will feature in a majority of cash game builds. If you want to go there, maybe look at some of the likely less owned pieces.
Top EDG Plays:
- Jiejie - JNG - tops the team in KP% in their wins.
- Flandre - TOP - 73%KP and 24%KS in wins post-break. Top carry anyone?
- EDG - Team - massive edge in everything but for first blood.
6:00 AM: LNG (+475) vs. JDG (-800)
JDG is looking to escape the bottom four playoff teams and work their way into a first-round bye. With winnable games versus LNG, LGD, and OMG to close the split, that nearly seems like a lock. They even have an outside chance at the top four if FPX stumble. WE and RA, who are both currently ahead of JDG, have HARSH schedules remaining. LNG is the only team now sitting in the playoffs with a negative game differential, and with this match and SNG looming before finishing up with RW, I doubt they fix that.
JDG should be up early in this one. They have the edge in the edge in all those lovely early game metrics I always mention. There is more bad news for LNG; JDG also has substantially higher dragon and baron numbers and a slight vision advantage. We just saw what JDG just did to RNG's transplanted top laner Xiaohu, and now he gets to sink his teeth into the revolving door of M1kuya and Ale. Tarzan's LPL debut split has been disappointing, and I think in the matchup with his fellow LCK import Kanavi we will see more misery. People always look at Yagao as a weak point for JDG, but he's never lost to an Icon-led team, and I don't see him starting now. The bot duo has put up startlingly similar stats since the break, and Light has been outputting even more damage than has Loken. I doubt he'll get to a position to carry with the other advantages that JDG has across the board.
JDG is my top projected team among the favorites for kills, and they should be entering the mid-game with a lead in gold and objectives. They can be dealy fighting from behind and nearly flawless fighting from ahead. LNG has been giving up almost 20 deaths in their losses post-break. If you're shopping for a super low-owned team with some hope of winning and breaking the slate that would be LNG, they'll be sub ten percent. I have them as the highest projected team in the slate if they win. JDG is the official pick with a tidy 2-0, but LNG has some avenues as they are on the blue side and have very pronounced side samples.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JNG - leads the team in KP% and second in kill share.
- Loken - ADC -KS% leader.
- LvMao - SUP - third in KP%, but as the team's shot caller, he is always in the center of the action.
- Zoom - TOP - you all saw it. That Cho'Gath was HULKING.
Summary
- TLDR: NSRF 2-1, T1 2-0, EDG 2-0, and JDG 2-0. I've got very little faith in the LPL dogs, even though there are windows for LNG. DRX won't be able to stall out T1, and even if they do, it might not be what they wished for. AFS is live, but I'm in favor of the revenge narrative.
- You can very comfortable build both LCK favs into a lovely little lineup if you can stomach T1 in the late game.
- It is very uncomfortable to build both LPL favs, but double SUPs can accomplish it.
- Five gamers are gone, but the best of fives are approaching. The LPL and LCK's playoffs are sure to see some close matchups giving us exciting build paths.
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